Rounding out today's "Net QHP Attrition Rate" Trifecta is Indiana, which, while not as deep-red as Tennessee, a) also has a Republican administration; b) hasn't expanded Medicaid; and c) refused to set up their own exchange.
This makes it all the more of a positive surprise to see that their ACA exchange QHP attrition rate is even lower than Tennessee--in fact, it's under 1%!!
This piece by Salon's Simon Maloy pretty much nails it on the head:
At this point it’s near-impossible to maintain the fiction that the Affordable Care Act is failing or that the Republicans have a coherent strategy for unmaking it. One by one, Republican-led states are abandoning their opposition to implementing the ACA.
This is obviously an unwelcome trend for groups like Americans for Prosperity, the Koch brothers’ main outlet for political activism.
...Now contrast AFP’s treatment of Pence with how the group reacted to Rick Snyder, the Republican governor of Michigan...AFP Michigan opposed the plan from the get-go.
...So what explains the disparate treatment? It may be that AFP is finally starting to see the writing on the wall and coming to grips with the slow, steady erosion of the Republican anti-Obamacare bulwark. But it could also be the fact that Mike Pence is the Koch brothers’ golden boy.
Presented without comment (except for my emphasis):
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Indiana residents will have more than triple the number of health insurance plans to choose from when the federal insurance exchange enrollment period starts in November, according to a state official.
Indiana Department of Insurance attorney Tina Korty told a legislative panel Thursday that some insurers took a “wait-and-see” approach during the first year of the exchanges under the Affordable Care Act.
Nine companies will offer a total of 975 plans - not all will be available in every county - for Indiana residents on the federal exchange, she said. During the 2013-14 period, three companies offered 278 plans, The Times of Munster and the Post-Tribune reported.
“I think a lot of companies were waiting to see how the first year went,” Korty said. “Also were seeing some smaller providers that may offer a policy in only a few counties.”
Korty said a 5 percent average increase in exchange premiums is expected on Indiana policies.
Don't let the snarky headline fool you; I'm still very much a single-payer guy. However, anyone who still claims that the ACA exchanges are "socialized medicine" doesn't have the slightest clue what they're talking about. In case you needed even more proof that the ACA is very much private-market friendly:
After sitting out the first year, UnitedHealth Group Inc. intends to offer individual policies on the Illinois health insurance exchange next year, according to sources familiar with the company's plans.
The decision by UnitedHealth, the nation's largest and the state's No. 2 insurer, has the potential to shake up the Illinois market, which was dominated in 2014 by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Illinois, the state's dominant insurer.
...United's participation also could help lower rates for consumers, a key concern among the law's supporters.
While United would neither confirm nor deny its plans to offer policies in Illinois next year, a spokesman said the Minnesota-based insurer intends to increase its participation over time in exchanges nationwide.
OK, this doesn't really change the numbers beyond a couple hundred, but it's encouragingto see that my "15% in Non-Expansion States" rule of thumb for estimating the number of people who fall into the "woodworker" category seems to be pretty accurate, at least in Indiana:
Even without expanding eligibility for Indiana Medicaid, the program had enrolled 40,577 more Hoosiers as of March than it had in the same month last year.
More than 15,000 of that year-over-year increase occurred in March alone this year, as a flood of people here and nationally sought coverage before Obamacare would hit them with a tax for going uninsured.
If you take a look at the Medicaid Spreadsheet, you'll see that I currently have the "woodworker" tally for Indiana at 40,951...only 374 more than the number reported above.
That 40,951 is 15% of the combined total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Indiana from both the HC.gov website as well as through traditional state Medicaid agency offices (273,005).
UPDATE: On the down side, I was off by 4% this time around.
On the up side, I UNDERESTIMATED:
Actual Feb. enrollments: 942,833, for a total of 4,242,325 thru 3/01/14.
Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:
As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
Don't be surprised if Peter Lee of CoveredCA decides to steal some thunder by announcing that California has enrolled 1,000,000 QHPs all by itself either today or tomorrow. However, that would include the past 10 days, while the HHS number will only run thru 3/01.
If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.
I've been dead-on target 6 times in a row without hyping up my projections beforehand. This time I am hyping myself up beforehand, so I'll probably be way off...but as long as I've UNDERestimated the tally, I'll be perfectly fine with that...
The report will be released in about 5 minutes, but my kid gets home from school in about 10, so it'll be a good 20 minutes before I can really post anything. Feel free to follow Sarah Kliff of Vox in the meantime!
