Mississippi

Mississippi is one of the 10 states which still hasn't expanded Medicaid to all residents earning up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) under the Affordable Care Act. If they did so, up to 123,000 uninsured residents would gain healthcare coverage, while up to another 180,000 who are currently enrolled in zero-premium ACA exchange plans would be transferred over to Medicaid instead.

However, it turns out that the Magnolia State does at least have a much smaller Medicaid expansion program called "Healthier Mississippi:"

Unfortunately, Mississippi is another state which provides zero useful rate filing data for my purposes (preliminary or final) prior to the Open Enrollment Period launching. The only data I have is from the federal Rate Review website, and even the filing forms there are heavily redacted, so all I can put together are unweighted averages for the 2025 calendar year.

It's worth noting that Vantage Health Plan appears to be dropping out of the individual market, while All Savers appears to be dropping out of the states small group market (at least, neither one shows up on the Rate Review site or in a SERFF search, anyway).

UPDATE: Thanks to Paul in the comments for noting that Vantage simply changed their name to Primewell last year.

With that in mind, unsubsidized individual market enrollees are looking for unweighted average increases of around 1.8%, while small group carriers are hoping to increase rates by around 9.8% (again, unweighted).

Just yesterday I noted that the Michigan state senate has passed a bill to establish a state-based ACA exchange, joining 21 other states (Georgia is scheduled to launch theirs this fall, and Illinois in time for the 2026 Open Enrollment Period). The bill now moves to the state House, where I'm expecting it to pass and be signed into law by Gov. Whitmer without too much controversy. If so, Michigan would also split off of the federal exchange in time for the 2026 OEP.

Well, it turns out that another state may end up beating Michigan to the punch, and it's probably the last state you'd expect it to happen in: Mississippi!

From April:

February 16th:

I strongly suspect that at least one of the remaining holdout states will join the expansion crowd this year, most likely Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama...but it likely will be some state-specific variant as described above. Stay tuned...

...As I noted, however, in all three [states] it's pretty likely they'll go with at least a partially privatized version as Arkansas has instead of a "clean" expansion of Medicaid proper.

February 28th:

BREAKING: The Mississippi House just passed Medicaid expansion by a 96-20 vote.
That's more than enough to overcome a veto from Gov. Tate Reeves.
It now heads to the Senate.

Background: https://t.co/exDyzFAcJX

— Ashton Pittman (@ashtonpittman) February 28, 2024

February 16th:

I strongly suspect that at least one of the remaining holdout states will join the expansion crowd this year, most likely Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama...but it likely will be some state-specific variant as described above. Stay tuned...

...As I noted, however, in all three [states] it's pretty likely they'll go with at least a partially privatized version as Arkansas has instead of a "clean" expansion of Medicaid proper.

February 28th:

BREAKING: The Mississippi House just passed Medicaid expansion by a 96-20 vote.
That's more than enough to overcome a veto from Gov. Tate Reeves.
It now heads to the Senate.

Background: https://t.co/exDyzFAcJX

— Ashton Pittman (@ashtonpittman) February 28, 2024

From the linked article in Pittman's tweet:

February 16th:

I strongly suspect that at least one of the remaining holdout states will join the expansion crowd this year, most likely Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama...but it likely will be some state-specific variant as described above. Stay tuned...

...As I noted, however, in all three [states] it's pretty likely they'll go with at least a partially privatized version as Arkansas has instead of a "clean" expansion of Medicaid proper.

Of course, as one Alabama-based advocate put it...

Mississippi better not beat us to expand.

— Jane Adams (@janeadamsid) February 16, 2024

Well, it looks like Ms. Adams may end up being disappointed...

BREAKING: The Mississippi House just passed Medicaid expansion by a 96-20 vote.
That's more than enough to overcome a veto from Gov. Tate Reeves.
It now heads to the Senate.

Two weeks ago:

As I concluded in the last piece:

I strongly suspect that at least one of the remaining holdout states will join the expansion crowd this year, most likely Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama...but it likely will be some state-specific variant as described above. Stay tuned...

...As I noted, however, in all three [states] it's pretty likely they'll go with at least a partially privatized version as Arkansas has instead of a "clean" expansion of Medicaid proper.

Of course, as one Alabama-based advocate put it...

Mississippi better not beat us to expand.

— Jane Adams (@janeadamsid) February 16, 2024

Well, it looks like Ms. Adams may end up being disappointed...

Just a week ago, I posted...

I strongly suspect that at least one of the remaining holdout states will join the expansion crowd this year, most likely Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama...but it likely will be some state-specific variant as described above. Stay tuned...

And just a few hours ago, I posted a piece headlined, "Which Holdout State Will Be Next To Finally Expand Medicaid??"

Well, it looks like we may have our answer already. Via Ashton Pittman of the Mississippi Free Press:

A Medicaid expansion bill will arrive in the Mississippi Senate by Monday, beginning a process that could provide health care to about 230,000 working Mississippians, Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann says.

Mississippi is one of the ten states where ACA Medicaid expansion still hasn't gone through a full decade after it could have.

A few years ago, Medicaid expansion in Mississippi looked like it might actually happen: While the states GOP Governor and Republican supermajority-controlled state legislature opposed it, in May 2021 there was a strong grassroots effort to put a statewide initiative on the ballot to push it through regardless, exactly how it happened in other deep red states like Utah, Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota.

Unfortunately, just a few weeks later, the Mississippi Supreme Court crushed that effort:

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