NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

...and all hell breaks loose in California!

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — With the deadline approaching for Covered California™ health insurance coverage beginning Jan. 1, 2014, tens of thousands of new enrollees are seeking out help and signing up for plans. In fact, preliminary data indicates that in just the past three days (Dec 16-18), 53,510 people enrolled by selecting a Covered California health insurance plan. That tops the 30,830 enrollments completed for the entire month of October by nearly 60 percent.

Seriously, can't I leave ACASignups.net alone for 5 friggin' minutes without having to update the numbers again???

The 15K per day average from last week was extremely impressive. This just upped the ante even more, culminating in the key line:

On Wednesday, Dec. 18, a total of 20,506 enrollments were received by Covered California

Over 20K.

In one day.

From one state.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Boy did I speak too soon. Earlier today I posted a diary stating that new enrollment figures for ACASignups.net have been a bit on the scarce side this week.

Literally moments after I posted the diary, WHAMMO:

If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

UPDATE: Literally seconds after I posted this, some new numbers have come in from Kentucky and Connecticut that bump things up a bit more...

After a ton of new data last week, it seems that the state agencies have decided to put more focus on actually enrolling people and processing their forms than issuing their numbers. This is a polite way of saying that ACASignups.net is at a bit of a standstill at the moment, not because the enrollments aren't happening (if anything, they should be through the roof right now through next week), but because the numbers are just not being released as easily.

Case in point: California just issued a press release with their latest statistics, which are very impressive...except that they don't include the most important numbers that we're looking for: Updated actual enrollment figures.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, I'm not sure how much this particular milestone should be crowed about considering that over 40% of the enrollment period has elapsed, but new actual numbers have been rather thin over the weekend, so I figured I'd call some attention to it.

New York is the only state that's released it's latest figures today, but thanks to them doing so (95,000 private enrollments, 40,000 Medicaid/SCHIP expansion), the total now stands at over 711,000 private healthcare plans through the ACA exchanges.

Since the original CBO projection (remember, that was a projection, not an actual goal) through 3/31/14 was a tad over 7 million, that means that the exchanges have broken through the 10% mark. Yay team!

Some other cool numbers:

--Connecticut continues to kick major ass, having enrolled over 56% of their CBO projection. They could easily double or even potentially even triple the 33,000 figure that they were expected to achieve by the end of March.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

In a comment from a Mother Jones article about Obamacare enrollments, I just received the highest praise I could hope for:

"During the '12 election, I compulsively consulted 538.com...Now I compulsively consult acasignups.net."

I'm honored beyond words.

I'm also extremely happy to report that thanks to California finally updating their official numbers (partly spoiled by yesterday's November HHS Report), the official ACASignups.nettally has shattered through the 600K mark, and now stands at:

Private Plan Enrollments: 679,743
Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 1,829,180
Total: 2,508,923

Meanwhile, check out the trend/projection line, which has jumped from around 3.7 million up to around 4.2 million by 3/31/14.

The article is a bit confusing, but it looks like 15,800 belong in the "Private Exchange" category with another 29,200 under the "Small Business (Direct)" category which doesn't even exist on the spreadsheet yet. I'll have to review this further to get a straight answer, but for now I'm entering both numbers under the "Private Exchange" heading.

The delayed deluge of applications — 5,000 were filled out in the past four days — brings the total number of Vermonters who should be settled with their coverage at the start of 2014 to 45,000, the administration says.

That’s roughly two-thirds of the 65,000 Vermonters whose insurance expires at the start of the year. Another 9,300 people have three months worth of breathing room — their plans have been extended through March 31, either because their employers chose that route or because the payment piece of the website isn’t working for them.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

I have to admit, I wasn't expecting the official November HHS ACA enrollment report to be released until Friday (October's was released on 11/13), so I've spent the past few hours scrambling to update the ACASignups.net spreadsheet and graph. I'm happy to say that I've finished doing so.

I also have to admit to being slightly bothered by the failure to include so much as a footnote mention of ACASignups.net in this morning's front-page story about the HHS report, considering that this project is being run by more than a dozen dedicated dKos members, has a devoted following here and elsewhere, has been updated daily on a state-by-state basis, has been recognized by both Markos and Joan here at dKos, and even recently received some recognition by Sarah Kliff at WashPost's WonkBlog.

Ahem.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

After a TON of activity last week, the ACASignups.netspreadsheet was a bit quiet over the weekend. However, several new stats came out yesterday and today which have things moving again:

--The NY Times reports that 112,000 people enrolled in private plans--via Healthcare.gov--in the first week of December. Note that this doesn't include the other 14 state-run exchanges (plus DC). By comparison, only 27,000 enrolled in the Federal exchange throughout October, and 100,000 in November. So, that's a 4x increase the 2nd month followed by (so far) a 4x increase the third month.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yup, that's right: After 9 weeks of charting, graphing and otherwise tallying everyone else enrolling in healthcare plans via the ACA exchanges, I'm happy and relieved to report that my wife and I finally went ahead and enrolled ourselves.

Living in Michigan, we had to use HealthCare.gov. I'm very happy to confirm that the reports from the HHS Dept. and other media sources are correct: It's working infinitely faster and more reliably than even a couple of weeks ago.

Since my wife is the principle name listed on our current plan, and since we're sticking with the same company anyway (just switching to one of the new ACA-compliant plans), she insisted on creating a brand-new user account under her name, figuring that there might be some confusion caused within the company system if the new plan was entered with my name as the principle one. I have no idea if this makes sense or not, but figured it wouldn't be a bad idea to start fresh with the most recent bugfixes in place.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

HOUSTON, WE HAVE LIFT-OFF!!

Roughly 27,000 Americans signed up for insurance on the federal exchange on Tuesday, according to internal figures, bringing the site’s three-day enrollment total to 56,000. That figure is more than double the number who enrolled online in the entire month of October, which was almost 27,000.

Needless to say, I've been scrambling to bring the ACASignups.net spreadsheet up to speed this morning.

It seems that the "December Spike" or "Post-Thanksgiving Surge" or whatever you want to call it that Pres. Obama and the HHS Dept. were hoping for is happening, and in a big way. The announcement that the biggest hurdles in the ongoing Healthcare.Gov website debacle have been resolved is no doubt a major part of this dramatic turn of events.

In any event, I think I'll be hopping over the next few weeks.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

The newly game HealthCare.gov signed up 29,000 people on Sunday and Monday, an official familiar with the program said, more than were enrolled through the federal Obamacare portal in all of October.

The enrollment surge follows a round-the-clock effort by federal tech officials and contractors to make more than 400 software fixes and hardware upgrades since the site’s disastrous launch.

Already added to the ACASignups.net spreadsheet; see updated graph below.

As you can see, at the current rate, they'll hit roughly 2.9 million by 3/31/14.

HOWEVER:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Now that we're past Thanksgivukkah and out of November, the monthly ACA enrollment numbers for the 2nd month of the Healthcare Exchanges are starting to come in. I don't have any official numbers for any specific states for the past week or so yet, but according to Bloomberg News, Healthcare.gov saw a quadrupling of enrollments over October last month:

About 100,000 people signed up for health insurance through the online federal exchange last month, a roughly four-fold increase from October even as a team of U.S. government and contractor programmers was fixing the troubled Affordable Care Act website, said a person familiar with program’s progress.

The preliminary November numbers reflect individuals who successfully selected a plan.

Now, there's some important points to keep in mind here:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yes, that's right--thanks to new data out of West Virginia and clarified/confirmed data out of California, the ACASignups.netspreadsheet just saw the Medicaid/SCHIP expansion total nearly double, to nearly 1.4 million.

Specifically, this article in USA Today (provided by dKos member ybruti), which notes that WV authorities personally contacted 118,000 people deemed eligible for Medicaid expansion and have already enrolled over 54,000 of them.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

've added a few new numbers to ACASignups.net, but the main changes are some new features:

--First, I'm "changing" the name from ObamacareSignups.net to ACASignups.net. Both will take you to the same spreadsheet, of course, but ACASignups.net is just shorter and easier to type. Use whichever one you feel is appropriate when reposting.

--Second, as I mentioned last week, by popular request, I've added graphical charts showing both the ACA Private Exchange enrollments as well as a comparison against the Massachusetts enrollment pattern of 2007.

--Third (and this is BRAND NEW), I've added the actual official HHS Dept. Per-State Goals for the 6-month enrollment period! This answers the question about where the mystical "7 million" figure came from, broken down by state (more about this below the fold).

--As far as I can tell, 2 of the other websites that were tracking ACA enrollments have abandoned the project: Advisory Board Company and Aaron Strauss. However, EnrollMaven.com is still keeping at it.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

Going forward, whenever possible I'm going to only be listing actual enrollments for each state. In this sense, my numbers will more closely parallel EnrollMaven.com, an openly anti-ACA website that's also been tracking Obamacare signups. I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, but their methodology seems to be sound. In addition, they've at least been completely frank about their negative opinion of the ACA, and many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.

However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:

--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

Going forward, whenever possible I'm going to only be listing actual enrollments for each state. In this sense, my numbers will more closely parallel EnrollMaven.com, an openly anti-ACA website that's also been tracking Obamacare signups. I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, but their methodology seems to be sound. In addition, they've at least been completely frank about their negative opinion of the ACA, and many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.

However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:

--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Hey, GOP: EAT ME!!

Yeah, that's right: I wandered through the Healthcare.Gov desert for 40 days (well, 48 to be precise) and came out the other side with a small, but not insignificant subsidy for my family and I. $62/month or $744/year. Not huge, but that's enough to cover, say, our cable bill, anyway.

More importantly, this is based on our projected income next year. If we end up falling short, our actual subsidy could be significantly higher (or lower, if we do better than expected, although that would be a good problem to have, of course).

I haven't actually enrolled in a plan yet, although I did a bit of window shopping just to make sure that the site would actually let me do so. My wife and I will do so together later this week, under calmer, more organized circumstances. We do have 22 Silver or Gold plans to choose from, and while our actual premiums look to be fairly close to what we're paying now, the coverage should be better.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

As many of you know, I've been tracking ACA applications (including Medicaid enrollments) since the beginning of October, helped by a dozen or so fellow Kossacks.

I've posted frequent updates here.

The reason I was including both applications as well as actual enrollments is because most of the reports didn't bother to distinguish between the two. Plus, the actual number of completed applications do serve a legitimate purpose as well (for instance, we know that as of 11/02 there were an additional 900,000 applications in the hopper, ready for plan selection).

However, with the release of the official enrollment numbers for the first 33 days (10/1 - 11/2), it seems a bit pointless to continue with the applications as well. Therefore, I'm making a major change to the spreadsheet.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Three hours ago, I posted this diary about today's official ACA signup numbers being announced.

As everyone knows by now, the official enrollment figure--as of November 2nd--was about 106,000 (plus another 392,000 added to Medicaid).

Well, there's something important to remember--things have started to ramp up since the crappy first month. The HC.gov site may still be having problems, but most of the state exchanges have worked theirs out, and California is starting to get things in gear:

California reports 59,000 health insurance enrollees through Tuesday

More than 59,000 Californians have signed up for coverage since the state launched its health insurance marketplace last month, but the figures showed a significant uptick in activity in the first two weeks of November, officials said Wednesday.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

 

Administration to release Obamacare enrollment numbers at 3:30 p.m.

The Obama administration will on Wednesday release data on October enrollments through the federal health insurance exchange.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will release a report on the numbers at 3:30 p.m., and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius will discuss the findings on a press call then. The numbers are for people living in states using the federal exchange and not state exchanges, which have slowly been releasing their data.

The White House has been trying to lower already low expectations for the numbers, as press secretary Jay Carney did, yet again, at his daily briefing Wednesday. "No one will be satisfied with the numbers because they will be below what we sought" prior to the launch of the website, he told reporters.

Carney said he hadn't yet discussed the numbers with Obama.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Alex Singer just posted this diary, quoting the Wall Street Journal:

So far, private health plans have received enrollment data for 40,000 to 50,000 users of the federal marketplace, the people familiar with the figures said.

The figure of 40,000 to 50,000 doesn't include people in the 36 states who used the federal website to learn they qualify for Medicaid, a federal-state health program for low-income people. Medicaid is being expanded in many of the 36 states.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

So, yesterday Politico ran this story ahead of next week's release of the first official Obamacare enrollment figures:

Sebelius says Obamacare enrollment 'very low'

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today acknowledged that long-awaited enrollment figures for the rocky first month of Obamacare will be “very low.”
“We intend to give you as much information as we can validate,” Sebelius told a Senate Finance Committee hearing where lawmakers from both parties harshly criticized the rollout and her agency’s lack of foresight about the massive problems. She said the initial batch of enrollment figures being released next week cover “the first month of enrollment” and will include both Medicaid and health plan numbers in the new insurance exchanges.

It will be very interesting to see just how close--or completely dead wrong--my own figures are at ObamacareSignups.net

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Thanks to the latest eyebrow-raising numbers out of California, the ObamacareSignups.nettally--including Medicaid expansion--now stands at 1,622,521    .

I should note that the big numbers from both California and New York are rather fuzzy, because they're very large but also don't give any real breakdown. The other day Rep. Capps of CA-24 claimed California has 600,000 added to Medicaid and 125,000 applications on the exchanges; today CoveredCA claims 227,000 applications...but doesn't break this out, so that could be a major issue. By the same token, NY supposedly has 200,000 completed applications...and another source claims 27,000 of these are Medicaid. I'm fairly certain that the breakdown is actually more like 140K Medicaid to 60K Exchanges, but I can't be sure for now.

If you were to remove both California and New York from the totals completely, they would both drop dramatically, to around 573,000 combined, so this is a pretty important thing to sort out.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Thanks to the latest eyebrow-raising numbers out of California, the ObamacareSignups.nettally--including Medicaid expansion--now stands at 1,519,979.

It's important to understand that sources and methodology for this sort of tracking is going to vary widely, depending on what exactly it is that you're trying to track (as well as the source, of course). In my case, yes, I'm including Medicaid expansion signups, because ultimately, what matters is people actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price.

In addition, I've chosen to include completed applications for healthcare plans, even if they haven't actually been enrolled yet. You could certainly argue that I shouldn't count it, but frankly, so many of the articles/sources I'm using fail to make that distinction either that I grew tired of trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.

One very strict (and openly anti-ACA) tracking source, EnrollMaven.com, lists the number as only about 39,000. Another, the Advisory Board Company, puts the number at 160,000, but with 404,000 applications.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

As of today, the ObamacareSignups.net tally now stands at 974,539.

It's important to understand that sources and methodology for this sort of tracking is going to vary widely, depending on what exactly it is that you're trying to track (as well as the source, of course). In my case, yes, I'm including Medicaid expansion signups, because ultimately, what matters is people actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price.

In addition, I've chosen to include completed applications for healthcare plans, even if they haven't actually been enrolled yet. You could certainly argue that I shouldn't count it, but frankly, so many of the articles/sources I'm using fail to make that distinction either that I grew tired of trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.

One very strict (and openly anti-ACA) tracking source, EnrollMaven.com, lists the number as only about 36,000. Another, the Advisory Board Company, puts the number at 116,000, but with 365,000 applications.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

As of today, the ObamacareSignups.net tally now stands at 941,458.

It's important to understand that sources and methodology for this sort of tracking is going to vary widely, depending on what exactly it is that you're trying to track (as well as the source, of course). In my case, yes, I'm including Medicaid expansion signups, because ultimately, what matters is people actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price.

In addition, I've chosen to include completed applications for healthcare plans, even if they haven't actually been enrolled yet. You could certainly argue that I shouldn't count it, but frankly, so many of the articles/sources I'm using fail to make that distinction either that I grew tired of trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.

As a result, you're going to see a VERY wide range of estimates--one very strict (and openly anti-ACA) tracking source, EnrollMaven.com, lists the number as only about 36,000. Another, the Advisory Board Company, puts the number at 116,000, but with 365,000 applications.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Thanks in large part to the tireless efforts of ArcticStones in particular (along with help from the other state-watchers listed below the fold), the ObamacareSignups.net numbers are starting to jump up again.

As a result, as of today, the tally now stands at 903,190.

However, it's important to understand that sources and methodology for this sort of tracking is going to vary widely, depending on what exactly it is that you're trying to track (as well as the source, of course). In my case, yes, I'm including Medicaid expansion signups, because ultimately, what matters is people actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price.

In addition, I've chosen to include completed applications for healthcare plans, even if they haven't actually been enrolled yet. You could certainly argue that I shouldn't count it, but frankly, so many of the articles/sources I'm using fail to make that distinction either that I grew tired of trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Things have stabilized a bit at ObamacareSignups.net, as some of the early speculative numbers are starting to settle down into actual, real-world figures.

As a result, as of today, the tally for people who are now covered by by health insurance who weren't prior to the launch of the Exchanges is only a bit higher than it was a few days ago (639,102 to be precise).

It's important to understand that sources and methodology for this sort of tracking is going to vary widely, depending on what exactly it is that you're trying to track (as well as the source, of course). In my case, yes, I'm including Medicaid expansion signups, because ultimately, what matters is people actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price (and certainly Medicaid is affordable for that person).

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

If you go to ObamacareSignups.net, you'll see that my own current tally now sits at over 600,000 either enrolled or at least with completed applications.

Today's big updates:

--the District of Columbia is up to over 1,800 "individuals and families" which could actually mean up to perhaps 3,000 actual people

--Illinois has received 20,000 completed applications for Medicaid expansion.

--Massachusetts, which is a special case since they've been running their exchange for years (thanks, Mitt!) has added another 5,691 since the ACA exchanges formally started.

--The beat rolls on in New York, which is now up to 150,000 people "registered and deemed eligible"

--A handful of people have signed up in Mississippi and Wyoming, believe it or not!

Thanks to the folks below the fold for providing some of these sources!

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