COVID19

Last week I posted the latest update to my ongoing Red/Blue America COVID-19 Death Rate series.

As always, here's my methodology:

Remember: "Decile" means 1/10th or 10% of the total population (all 50 states + DC).

It's been five months since my last attempt to estimate a grim but vitally important number: Just how many Trump voters vs. Biden voters have become fatal victims of the GOP/FOX News coordinated anti-vaxx/anti-mask campaign to date, and what sort of impact might this end up having on the midterm elections this November?

As I said at the time, I'm not going to attempt to justify this cynical bean counting anymore...the evidence is now overwhelming that Republican leadership, in coordination with outlets like FOX News and other right-wing outlets, made a conscious decision in spring 2021 to push hard against Americans getting vaccinated against COVID-19 for purely cynical political math reasons.

As always, here's my methodology:

Remember: "Decile" means 1/10th or 10% of the total population (all 50 states + DC).

COVID-19 Vaccine

I spent over a year posting weekly updates to my vaccination-rate-by-partisan-lean graph. I then moved to monthly updates as I was backed up with other work, and my last one was back in July.

This will be my final update of this graph for four reasons:

  • First: I've more than made my point. There's really not much more to be said about the absurd & disturbing partisanship of COVID-19 vaccination rates that hasn't already been discussed ad nauseum here and elsewhere.
  • Second: The 1st- & 2nd-dose vaccination rates have slowed to a trickle across the nation overall anyway; by my count, only around 1.2 million Americans have completed their 2nd vaccination dose since mid July. That's only around 22,000 per day nationally.
  • Third, we're now 2 1/2 years out from the official 2020 Census population data, which means the denominator I've been dividing into for all of this data is now pretty out of date.
  • And fourth, the addition of 3rd & 4th shots (boosters as they're called), along with the just-approved Omicron-specific vaccine doses, have muddied the data waters pretty badly in a lot of parts of the country, with doses being miscategorized in databases, etc.

Having said that, here's my methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).
Medicaid

As I (and many others) have been noting for many months now, the official end of the federal Public Health Emergency (PHE), whenever it happens, will presumably bring with it reason to celebrate...but will also likely create a new disaster at the same time:

What goes up usually goes back down eventually, and that's likely to be the case with Medicaid enrollment as soon as the public health crisis formally ends...whenever that may be.

Well, yesterday Ryan Levi and Dan Gorenstein of of the Tradeoffs healthcare policy podcast posted a new episode which attempts to dig into just when that might be, how many people could be kicked off of the program once that time comes and how to mitigate the fallout (I should note that they actually reference my own estimate in the program notes):

As always, here's my methodology:

Remember: "Decile" means 1/10th or 10% of the total population (all 50 states + DC).

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).

As always, here's my methodology:

Remember: "Decile" means 1/10th or 10% of the total population (all 50 states + DC).

Florida

SHOT (so to speak):

The FDA’s independent vaccine advisers voted unanimously Wednesday to recommend the agency authorize two Covid-19 vaccines for babies, toddlers and preschool-age children, putting the country’s youngest age group one step closer to immunizations nearly two-and-a-half years into the pandemic.

CHASER:

Florida is the only state in the union that did not preorder COVID-19 vaccines for children ages 4 and under, according to a report from the Miami Herald.

The nation’s third-largest state missed Tuesday’s deadline to preorder the doses from the federal government, which the Herald reports could delay delivery to Florida’s pediatricians, clinics, pharmacies and pediatric hospitals.

COVID-19 Vaccine

UPDATE 6/17/22: OK, now it's official:

The Food and Drug Administration on Friday approved Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines for emergency use in children under the age of 5, a monumental step for parents who have spent the past two years buffeted by day care and school closures while taking strict precautions for the health of their kids.

Shots could be in toddlers’ arms before the end of June, pending approval from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

UPDATE 6/18/22: Advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Saturday unanimously recommended the nation’s first coronavirus vaccines for children under 5, one of the last steps before the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines can be given to as many as 19 million children across the United States.

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