COVID19

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Yesterday there was a bit of a brouhaha caused when NPR reporters Geoff Brumfiel and Daniel Wood published an in-depth report on the partisan divide when it comes to county-level COVID-19 vaccination and death rates, which was heavily influenced by my own work over the past seven months, including two hour-long interviews in which we went into in-depth discussions of data sources, methodology and conclusions.

The controversial aspect was due to the fact that their published piece originally failed to mention my involvement or assistance in any way whatsoever.

After being called out on this by myself and others, Brumfiel called me to personally apologize and rectify the situation. To his credit, he took full responsibility and specifically noted that his colleague, Daniel Wood, had nothing to do with the oversight. Also to his credit, he arranged for the NPR story to be quickly updated to mention my assistance by name as well as to link to one of my own related COVID data analysis posts:

December 5, 2021, 10:33am: See important updates at bottom.

NPR, December 5, 2021, 5:00am EST:

Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame

by Daniel Wood, Geoff Brumfiel

Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.

COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.71x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher five weeks ago:

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.78x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher a month ago:

COVID

Back in July 2020, Vanity Fair reporter Katherine Eban wrote a shocking expose which exposed the depths of callousness and cold-hearted political calculation which the Trump Administration used to guide their horrific response to the COVID-19 pandemic when it reached U.S. shores:

Six months into the pandemic, the United States continues to suffer the worst outbreak of COVID-19 in the developed world. Considerable blame belongs to a federal response that offloaded responsibility for the crucial task of testing to the states. The irony is that, after assembling the team that came up with an aggressive and ambitious national testing plan, Kushner then appears to have decided, for reasons that remain murky, to scrap its proposal.

Miami-Dade County

Back in early September, I began noticing something very odd going on with my county-level scatter-plot graphs which broke out COVID cases/deaths by what percent of the population had been fully vaccinated:

As you might expect, there's a clear drop-off in new COVID cases per capita as the vaccination rate of the counties goes up. There seems to be a slight drop-off starting around 50% fully vaccinated, followed by a steep drop-off starting around 65% vaxxed. There's a third drop-off at around 75%, but there's literally only a handful of counties which have achieved that high a vaccination rate so far anyway.

HOWEVER, there's one major outlier over the 65% threshold...Miami-Dade County.

According to the Centers for Disease Control, Miami-Dade has fully vaccinated 68% of their entire population (1.84 million out of 2.72 million residents). I use the slightly lower official 2020 U.S. Census popualtion count for Miami-Dade County (2,701,767), which makes the vaccination rate slightly higher still: 68.24%.

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.84x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher three weeks ago:

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