This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:
The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California is kicking off its open-enrollment period for 2026 coverage on Nov. 1 amid uncertainty surrounding the enhanced premium tax credits that have delivered greater affordability and record enrollment across the nation.
This marks the 13th open-enrollment period under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which since its inception has helped tens of millions of Americans access health insurance, including a record nearly 2 million Californians heading into 2026. Today, more than 24 million Americans are insured through a marketplace plan.
HARTFORD, Conn. (Oct. 30, 2025) — Access Health CT (AHCT), Connecticut’s official health insurance marketplace, today announced it will hold several enrollment fairs in November to help Connecticut residents shop, compare and enroll in health or dental coverage. They can also renew their coverage. Enrollment fairs are one-day events for customers to get in-person help from experts. The fairs will take place in Danbury, Manchester, Norwalk, Norwich, New London, Stratford and Willimantic. All help is free.
Open Enrollment begins Nov. 1, 2025 and ends Jan. 15, 2026.
When you enroll affects when your coverage starts. If customers enroll on or before Dec. 15, 2025, coverage will start Jan. 1, 2026. If they enroll between Dec. 16, 2025 and Jan. 15, 2026, coverage will begin Feb. 1, 2026.
Denver, Colo.– Health insurance premiums will increase for many people who buy health insurance through Colorado’s official marketplace and fewer customers in 2026 will qualify for financial help to offset those costs, according to a new analysis from Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s official health insurance marketplace. Most of the cost increase is the result of Congress allowing federal enhanced Premium Tax Credits (ePTCs) to expire.
Connect for Health Colorado’s analysis is based on the Colorado Division of Insurance’s announcement of final health insurance premium rates for plan year 2026, and reflects the expiration of ePTCs and the benefit of the introduction of Colorado Premium Assistance, which will reduce premiums for some customers.
On Monday I noted that around 20 state-based ACA exchange websites had launched 2026 Open Enrollment "window shopping," which allows residents to plug in their household information (zip code, ages, income, etc) and browse the various health insurance policies they have to choose from for coverage starting January 1st...as well as whatever federal (and state, in some cases) tax credits they'll be eligible for.
Last month I posted an analysis of total enrollment in ACA health insurance exchange coverage nationally which broke the data out by Congressional District partisan lean as well as according to what percent of the vote Donald Trump received a year ago.
My conclusion? Around 20% more QHP/BHP enrollees live in House districts won by Republicans than those won by Democrats last fall…but there’s still an awful lot of blue district residents who are getting hit hard.
Over 26 million Americans in BOTH red and blue districts & states are going to be screwed in the near future if the enhanced tax credits are allowed to expire & the PAPI change is kept in place, and millions of them will lose healthcare coverage completely.
Today, with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits also about to be cut off to over 40 million Americans by Congressional Republicans, I decided to take a similar look at how that breaks out along partisan lines.
North Dakota has around ~43,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~16,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
