Charles Gaba's blog

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has posted an official update to the enrollment data for ACA Medicaid expansion through December 2024.

According to the new report, total enrollment from September through December actually increased by just a hair (5,377) and still remained at over 20.7 million nationally, so it doesn't look like the Trump Admin has started cooking these particular books, at least not yet.

I've been able to cobble together more recent ACA expansion enrollment for about half of the 40 states (+DC) which participate in the program:

Originally posted 12/31/24

Hawaii has around 26,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 83% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~1,700 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.8% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Hawaii, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 24,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/18/24

Idaho has around 117,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees, although the actual rate filings (summarized later in this post) put the off-exchange total at a much higher ~47,000.

Combined, that's 6.2 - 8.0% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Idaho, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 118,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/10/2025

Alabama has around 477,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 96% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~33,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 9.9% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Alabama, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 477,000 statewide.

Originally posted 6/06/25

Tennessee ACA exchange carriers were instructed to provide two sets of rate filings for 2026: One which assumes CSR reimbursement payments won't be reinstated, one which assumes they are reinstated. In addition, both sets of filings assume that IRA subsidies won't be extended; all but one carrier clarified how much extending the IRA subsidies would impact 2026 premium changes.

Alliant Health Plans: Alliant is requesting a nominal 0.3% increase next year if CSR payments aren't reinstated and a 1.0% drop if they are. In both cases, premiums would be 2.8% lower if IRA subsidies were to be extended by Congress:

Originally posted 7/21/25; See important updates below.

It's a little awkward to try & pull quotes from Georgia's actuarial memos because they're heavily redacted (see attachments below), but fortunately I also have access to other "just the facts" filing documents which include the hard data I need to compile my weighted averages. These forms--officially called "Rate Filing Transmittal Form LH-T1" and "Unified Rate Review" forms--include, among lots of other numbers, the preliminary avg. rate change being requested for the carrier's individual (or small group) market plans, as well as the number of current effectuated enrollees they have.

In addition, I have alternate rate filings for Georgia individual market carriers which specifically state what their requested rate changes would be if the enhanced premium tax credit subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan Act & Inflation Reduction Act were to be extended for at least one more year, providing a clear apples to apples comparison.

originally posted 7/17/25

via the Iowa Insurance Division:

Iowa Code §505.19 requires the Commissioner to hold a public hearing on a proposed individual health insurance rate increase which exceeds the average annual health spending growth rate as published by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services of the United State Department of Health and Human Services.  For 2026 the growth rate is 5.6%.

The Iowa Insurance Commissioner will hold a public hearing regarding the relevant rate increases on August 19, 2025.

The purpose will be to hear public comments on the proposed increase in the base premium rate. Consumers wishing to make a public comment at the hearing are encouraged to attend the hearing via the live webcast. 

All comments received will be considered public records and will be posted here. The Consumer Advocate will present the public comments received at the hearing.

Originally posted 8/04/25

via the Pennsylvania Insurance Dept:

Pennsylvanians can submit comments on rate requests and filings through September 2

Harrisburg, PA – The Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) today announced that the 2026 rate changes requested by insurance companies currently operating in Pennsylvania’s individual and small group markets are now available. On average, all Pennsylvania health insurers are requesting premium increases in plan year 2026: 19% increase to premiums in the individual market (for people who buy their own insurance), and a 13% increase to premiums in the small group market (for small businesses). 

Originally posted 8/7/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via federal Rate Review database.

Antidote Health Plan of AZ:

(Unfortunately, no rate justification summary is available, and the full actuarial memo is heavily redacted. Policy enrollees are estimated based on marketwide estimated enrollment; see below.)

Banner/Aetna CVS:

(Dropping out of the individual market for 2026.)

I am writing to notify the Department that Banner Health and Aetna Health Plan Inc. (“Banner | Aetna”) will exit the individual health insurance market effective December 31, 2025. This notification is sent pursuant to Department guidance and Arizona statute 20-1380(D)(1). We made this decision after careful consideration and after evaluating the evolution of business at Banner | Aetna. The details of our individual market exit include the following:

Originally posted 8/08/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, New Hampshire Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Anthem Health Plans of NH (BCBS)

(Unfortunately, Anthem has redacted their current enrollment total; see below)

This is a rate filing for the Individual market ACA-compliant plans offered by Anthem Health Plans of New Hampshire, Inc., also referred to as Anthem. The policy forms associated with these plans are listed below. The proposed rates in this filing are for a new HMO product that will be effective for the 2026 plan year beginning January 1, 2026, and apply exclusively to off-exchange plans.

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