Charles Gaba's blog

via the Idaho Dept. of Insurance:

Each year, the Idaho Department of Insurance posts rate changes of individual and small group health insurance products so consumers can review and provide comments on the proposed increases.  Insurance companies submit proposed rates for the upcoming calendar year to the Department, along with descriptions and justifications for why the rates are reasonable and not excessive.  The Department of Insurance is seeking public input for rate changes of individual and small group health insurance products to improve insurer accountability and transparency.  By following the links below, the public can access a summary of the increase amounts and the carrier justifications for the rates.  Please submit any comments to the Department for consideration.

Preliminary Rates - 2025

Please choose one of the categories to proceed:

The Delaware Dept. of Insurance has posted the preliminary 2025 individual & small group market rate filings from insurance carriers participating in those markets.

The big news on the individual market is that Aetna is seeking massive rate hikes of over 34% next year, though the weighted average across the board being requested is "only" a still ugly 13.3% increase.

On the small group market, average increases are the lower but still-not-great 8.8%. More significantly here is that Aetna and Optimum Choice are pulling out of the Delaware small group market entirely, reducing the number of carriers from six to just two, since Aetna had three divisions operating there.

Arizona

The good news is that the federal Rate Review database has now posted the preliminary avg. 2025 rate filings for the individual and small group markets for every state. This makes it very easy to plug in the average requested rate changes in 2025 for every carrier participating in both markets.

The bad news is that most of the underlying filing forms are heavily redacted, meaning I can't use the RR database to acquire the other critical data I need in order to run a proper weighted average: The number of people actually enrolled in the policies for each carrier.

This means that in cases where this data isn't available elsewhere (either the state's insurance department website, the SERFF database or otherwise), I'm limited to running an unweighted average. This can make a huge difference...if one carrier is requesting a 10% increase and the other is keeping prices flat, that's a 5.0% unweighted average rate hike...but if the first carrier has 99,000 enrollees and the second only has 1,000, that means the weighted average is actually 9.9%.

Alaska is a sparsely populated state with only two carriers on their individual market and four on their small group market. Alaska's insurance department website is useless when it comes to getting rate filings or enrollment data; I had to use the federal Rate Review site to even get the requested rate changes.

Fortunately, both carriers (Premera Blue Cross and Moda Health Plan) include summaries which list their current enrollment data. Unfortunately, the average rate increase being requested by the carriers for 2025 is up another 17%. While nearly all ACA exchange enrollees receive financial subsidies, this is still pretty steep for the few who aren't.

From Premera's summary:

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

  • In April 2024, 81,696,742 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP, a decrease of 1,060,543 individuals (1.3%) from March 2024.
    • 74,640,222 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid in April 2024, a decrease of 1,011,238 individuals (1.3%) from March 2024.
    • 7,056,520 individuals were enrolled in CHIP in April 2024, a decrease of 49,305 individuals (0.7%) from March 2024.
  • As of April 2024, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP has decreased by 12,171,264 individuals (13.0%) since March 2023, the final month of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) and amended by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023.
    • Medicaid enrollment has decreased by 12,090,337 individuals (13.9%).
    • CHIP enrollment has decreased by 80,927 individuals (1.1%).
  • Between February 2020 and March 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP increased by 23,023,434 individuals (32.5%) to 93,868,006.
    • Medicaid enrollment increased by 22,681,263 individuals (35.4%).
    • CHIP enrollment increased by 342,171 individuals (5.0%).

Normally, states will review (or "redetermine") whether people enrolled in Medicaid or the CHIP program are still eligible to be covered by it on a monthly (or in some cases, quarterly, I believe) basis.

However, the federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), passed by Congress at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, included a provision requiring state Medicaid programs to keep people enrolled through the end of the Public Health Emergency (PHE). In return, states received higher federal funding to the tune of billions of dollars.

As a result, there are tens of millions of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees who didn't have their eligibility status redetermined for as long as three years.

Every month for years now, the Centers for Medicare & Medicare Services (CMS) has published a monthly press release with a breakout of total Medicare, Medicaid & CHIP enrollment; the most recent one was posted in late February, and ran through November 2022.

Since December 2022, however, they haven't sent out the normal press release; instead, they included a brief note leading to a Medicaid/CHIP data slideshow , along with another note leading to their new Medicare Monthly Enrollment database.

In any event, according to the spreadsheet I exported, as of April 2024:

The good news is that RateReview.HealthCare.Gov has posted the preliminary 2025 rate filing summaries for every state, making it much easier to pin down which carriers are actually participating in the individual & small group markets next year, as well as what the carriers average requested rate changes are in states which don't publish that data publicly (or which make it difficult to track down if they do).

The bad news is that in many of those states, acquiring the actual enrollment data is even more difficult, as their rate filings tend to be heavily redacted. Alabama falls into this category. As a result, I can only run unweighted average rate changes for the individual market, which once again consists of three insurance carriers: Blue Cross Blue Shield of AL, Celtic Insurance Co. (which is actually owned by Centene, which also owns Ambetter), and UnitedHealthcare Insurance Co. As it happens, the unweighted rate change is a reduction of 3.1%, making this the second year in a row that Alabama's ACA rates will be decreasing, which is interesting.

First, I want to apologize to all of my regular visitors for the 2-week gap in posting; a combination of personal committments and unjustified distractions resulted in my not posting any updates for a longer-than-acceptable period of time. I hope to try and make up for that over the next week or so.

Via the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies:

The Colorado Division of Insurance (DOI) has completed its initial review of the health insurance plans that the companies have filed for 2025. The information below highlights the key information about the number of companies, plans and the premium changes the companies are requesting. 

On July 25, 2024, the DOI will hold a virtual stakeholder meeting from 9:30-11:30 a.m. MDT, to share preliminary information regarding health insurance for 2025. This meeting will focus on highlights and trends the DOI has identified in its initial review of the information Colorado health insurers have submitted for 2025. People interested in attending this July 25 stakeholder meeting should register (via Zoom) using the following link - Register for July 25 Stakeholder Meeting(opens in new window).

Through the rest of summer and into the fall, the DOI will continue to review the information the insurance companies have submitted, and expects to release the final, approved plans and premiums in mid-October, ahead of the Nov. 1 start to the annual open enrollment period for the individual market.

They've also posted an update on their reinsurance program impact for 2025:

Bipartisan Reinsurance program effort continues to save consumers millions in 2025. Colorado Option plans will again have lower premiums than non-option plans.

DENVER - Today, Governor Polis and the Department of Regulatory Agencies’ (DORA) Division of Insurance (DOI), announced health insurance plans and premium savings for Coloradans in 2025 thanks to Colorado’s landmark reinsurance program. Coloradans will save $477 million on premiums and avoid a nearly 23% premium increase, which would occur if reinsurance did not exist.  

“Reinsurance savings help make healthcare more affordable for all Coloradans, keeping more of their hard-earned money in their pockets to save or spend. Colorado is leading the nation in saving people money on healthcare and the $477 million Coloradans will save on premiums in 2025 proves that what we are doing in Colorado works,” said Governor Polis.  

On average, individual market insurance premiums would be 23% higher in 2025 without Reinsurance and that is simply an average. In many counties in the western half of Colorado, premiums would be more than 40% higher without Reinsurance. In Mesa County, premiums would be 43% higher if Reinsurance wasn’t in place. In total, the DOI estimates that Reinsurance will save $477 million for Coloradans in 2025, which by the end of 2025 will bring the total estimated savings to over $2 billion since it started in 2020.

“Ensuring all Coloradans have access to high-quality and affordable healthcare is foundational for me, both personally and professionally. When we invest in the health and well-being of Coloradoans, we create a stronger, more resilient home for all of us. I am proud of our work to help ensure costs do not hinder our neighbors from getting the coverage they need, and thanks to the Reinsurance Program, Coloradoans will continue to see significant health care premium savings,” said Lt. Governor Primavera and Director of the Office of Saving People Money on Health Care.

Colorado Option
During last year’s open enrollment, 34% of all health insurance plan selections made through Connect for Health Colorado were for Colorado Option plans, an 188% increase in enrollment from the previous year.

For the 2025 plan year, the insurance companies filed 48 Colorado Option individual plans, which are offered at the bronze, silver and gold metal tiers. These Colorado Option individual plans will be available from six insurance companies, and there will be at least one company with a gold, silver and bronze level Colorado Option plan in every county across the state.

Preliminary review of the filings indicates that the average change in premiums for Colorado Option plans in the individual market will only be about a 4% average increase in premiums compared to non-Colorado Option plans, which show a 6% average increase.

I actually have Colorado's overall individual market premiums down as incrasing by 6.5% overall on a weighted statewide basis (at least the preliminary requested rates, anyway).

Small group plans are scheduled to increase by 8.1% overall if approved as is.

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