Charles Gaba's blog

via Connect for Health Colorado:

Denver, Colo. – After five consecutive years of record growth, enrollment in health coverage through the state’s official health insurance marketplace for plan year 2026 dipped 2%, Connect for Health Colorado announced today.

Despite rising costs due to less federal financial assistance, 277,228 Coloradans enrolled in health insurance, with 69% of customers receiving financial help to lower the cost of their monthly premiums.

Technically, QHP selections ended up down 1.9% from last year's total of 282,481.

As of December 27th, Colorado was only down 0.9% y/y, once again underscoring my point about the WSJ massively jumping the gun.

via NV Health Link:

104,286 Nevadans Enrolled in Health Insurance During 2026 Plan Year Open Enrollment

More Nevadans actively engaged in their health coverage this year, with 10% enrolled in the new public option, known as the Battle Born State Plans

CARSON CITY, Nev. – Nevada Health Link’s Open Enrollment Period for Plan Year 2026 concluded on January 15 with 104,286 Nevadans enrolling in comprehensive health coverage through the state-based marketplace, including the new Battle Born State Plans, which accounted for 10% of total enrollments. Of the 104,286, there were 63,563 Nevadans who actively shopped, showing a 32% increase in engagement of active enrollments from last year’s Open Enrollment.

via Covered California's Open Enrollment Dashboard, as of January 17th:

  • New enrollments: 190,628
  • Active renewals: 518,380
  • Passive Autorenewals: 1,197,025
  • Total: 1,906,033

As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 1/18/25), Covered CA was reporting:

  • New enrollments: 278,335
  • Active renewals: 432,725
  • Passive/Autorenewals: 1,210,780
  • Total: 1,921,840

Overall, that means...

Awhile back I reported that Access Health CT, Connecticut's ACA exchange, was planning on joining several other states including California, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey & New Mexico in offering supplemental subsidies to partially (or, in the case of New Mexico, fully) backfill the lost federal tax credits for ACA enrollees, as well as extending the final Open Enrollment deadline for February coverage through the end of January.

A few weeks later they announced how th state subsidies will be structured:

...The state subsidies will fully fund the expired enhanced premium tax credit amounts for consumers with incomes between 100-200% of the federal poverty level and who are not enrolled in the Covered CT program.

The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange has their own Open Enrollment dashboard which, while not providing nearly as much data as New Mexico's, at least breaks out the top-line data. With the 2026 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) now over in the Old Line State, here's what their final numbers look like (barring any last-minute clerical corrections):

  • Total Renewals: 236,338
  • New Enrollees: 47,815
  • Total Enrollments: 255,612
  • Disenrollments (already subtracted from renewals)
  • 67.4% are subsidized; 32.6% are unsubsidized

They also break out total enrollment by county, which isn't terribly relevant to me.

Final 2025 OEP enrollment in Maryland was 247,243, so this represents a 3.4% QHP selection increase vs. last year, in spite of the enhanced federal tax credits expiring...

Me, December 26th:

...I'm bringing all of this back up again today because I strongly suspect that the situation is about to reverse itself, with the Trump Administration already preparing to brag about impressive-sounding ACA enrollment numbers for 2026 in spite of the enhanced tax credits expiring less than 60 hours from now...even though the actual negative impact of the expiring tax credits (along with several other administrative policy changes made by CMS this year) likely won't be known for several months after Open Enrollment officially ends in January.

Last night, the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period (OEP) concluded across most states, including New Mexico (there are 10 other states with later deadlines).

BeWell NM, New Mexico's ACA exchange, is among the only ACA exchanges with ongoing daily enrollment data reports, last updated early this morning. Here's how they wrapped things up compared to the 2025 OEP (barring any clerical corrections in this year's data):

Overall enrollment in the Land of Enchantment is up a whopping 17%!

While this may sound surprising at first, it should be once you know that New Mexico is the only state which is FULLY BACKFILLING 100% of the lost federal tax credits for ALL enrollees.

 

My son was in the 4th grade when Donald Trump first claimed to have a "much better" healthcare plan than "Obamacare" which would "cover everbody" and "save so much money."

My son is a sophomore in college today.

Anyway, whatever; fine. Let's take a look, shall we?

I'm mostly gonna base this on the "more detailed" explainer but I do have to address this nonsense claim in the initial press release:

CLAIM:

“Your prescription drugs will come way, way down and, under this policy, the prices of many drugs will be slashed by 300, 400 even 500% starting this month at the Trumprx.gov.”

REALITY:

So, this morning I learned that the Massachusetts Health Connector has recently launched a very handy Tableau-based enrollment dashboard which looks similar to the one rolled out by the New Mexico exchange awhile back.

This is very helpful for data hounds like myself, and I'll be consulting it regularly in the future.

In addition to displaying the latest enrollment data by various criteria, the MA dashboard also provides data from prior weeks, which means I can look for trend lines:

Total QHPs (ConnectorCare + Std. QHPs combined):

  • 12/14/25: 361,541
  • 12/21/25: 361,192
  • 12/28/25: 371,453
  • 01/04/26: 368,436
  • 01/11/26: 372,971

What's noteworthy about this is that yesterday's CMS report had Massachusetts down as having 382,580 QHP selections total as of 12/27/25...which is over 11,000 higher than what the MA Connector had it at as of a day later.

Back in September I ran an analysis of the ~24 million Americans enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage to try and get a better idea of the partisan impact of the expiration of the enhanced tax credits.

While it was already common knowledge that red states have significantly more ACA enrollees than blue ones (mainly because 9 of the 10 states still refusing to expand Medicaid under the ACA are red ones), I wanted to take a more granular look, so I broke enrollment out at the Congressional District level instead, and determined that while there are definitely more people in red districts who were about to be hit with massive net premium hikes, it wasn't a massive gap...it was around 20% higher in districts won by Republicans than by Democrats, which is significant but not jaw-dropping.

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