I'm not going to mince words here: While the Omicron variant wave of the COVID pandemic appears to have mostly subsided nationally (the 7-day new case average has plummeted from an all-time high of around 800,000/day nationally in mid-January to around 55,000/day now), I think the seemingly across-the-board abandonment of mask mandates at the federal, state and local levels is still a big mistake.
I would have waited until new daily cases drop further (to perhaps 10 per 100,000 per day, or around ~33,000/day nationally) and hold at that rate or lower for a solid month before giving the "all clear" for vaccinated folks to remove their masks at most indoor settings.
For unvaccinated people, of course, I'd want them to be required to wear masks indoors in public until they actually get vaccinated (which, aside from young children, nearly all of them should have done already; it's been nearly a year since they've been widely available, for God's sake).
A new Covered California analysis describes the potential impact to consumers if the increased health insurance subsidies that were part of the American Rescue Plan are allowed to expire at the end of 2022.
In California, all consumers would face premium increases, including 1 million lower-income consumers (individuals earning less than $32,200 per year), who would see their premiums more than double.
In addition, middle-income individuals and families (for individuals, those earning more than $51,520 per year), would no longer be eligible for any financial help and would face higher monthly premium costs that for many will mean annual cost increases in the thousands of dollars.
The increase in costs could force more than 150,000 people in California and more than 1.7 million nationally to drop their health insurance.
For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan). This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
More recently, I've switched to posting the same data starting on December 15th, which is (roughly) the start of the Omicron variant wave (although this is fuzzier than the start of the Delta wave).
NOTE: Given how much the national pace of vaccination shots has slowed down recently (the 7-day average is down to around ~330,000/day), going forward this will be a MONTHLY update, unless the pace picks up again significantly.
Methodology reminders:
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
Section 673(2) of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) of 1981 (42 U.S.C. 9902(2)) requires the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services to update the poverty guidelines at least annually, adjusting them on the basis of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The poverty guidelines are used as an eligibility criterion by Medicaid and a number of other Federal programs.
The poverty guidelines issued here are a simplified version of the poverty thresholds that the Census Bureau uses to prepare its estimates of the number of individuals and families in poverty.
As required by law, this update is accomplished by increasing the latest published Census Bureau poverty thresholds by the relevant percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The guidelines in this 2022 notice reflect the 4.7 percent price increase between calendar years 2020 and 2021.
However, I deliberately left out a section because I wanted to discuss it separately. If you scroll down to pages 31 & 32, you'll see a summary of two important pieces of ACA-related legislation which have been introduced in the California state legislature.
One of these is SB 967, introduced by CA State Senator Robert Hertzberg, which would do the following:
Hmmmm...a few weeks ago I posted a press release from Covered California which seemed to indicate that total 2022 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) plan selections had broken 1.8 million people.
Today I was directed to Covered CA's official 2022 OEP Executive Summary report, and it turns out the final numbers were a bit lower than that...but still record-breaking and impressive:
AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN LEADS TO HISTORIC OPEN ENROLLMENT
Governor Murphy and DOBI Commissioner Caride Announce Record Health Insurance Sign-Ups During Open Enrollment, Introduce Effort to Further Expand Health Care Access for NJ Residents
New Jersey Residents at Certain Incomes Can Now Enroll Year-Round In Free or Nearly Free Coverage
Residents with a Qualifying Life Event Also Have Options to Get Covered
TRENTON – Governor Phil Murphy and Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Marlene Caride today announced more than 324,000 New Jerseyans signed up for health coverage through Get Covered New Jersey during the Affordable Care Act Open Enrollment Period – an increase of 20 percent compared to last year – and a record high in New Jersey, as residents benefited from increased affordability from expanded federal and state financial help.
Last summer, I pulled together the occasional vaccination rate scatter plot graphs I'd been compiling for months into a single animated GIF image to show how both the correlation (R^2) and steepness (slope) of the partisan COVID vaccination divide grew from almost nothing at all to a gaping chasm over a six month period, from February 2021 through August 2021.
Today, I'm presenting an updated version of this animation which not only includes the following six months as well (September 2021 - February 2022), but also cleans up & standardizes the layout of each graph as much as possible. This includes making sure the thru date is in the upper right-hand corner on all of them, moving the population key to the lower-right corner, removing the (naive in retrospect) "herd immunity target" line, and moving the R^2 stamp immediately below the thru date to make the graph itself as clean as possible.
For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).
This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
Now that we're a full two months into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
