IMPORTANT: See caveats below regarding the impact of Medicaid Unwinding & other enrollment changes over time on these estimates.
12/12/24: Note: ACA Medicaid Expansion data has been updated by 3 months for most states, from March 2024 to June 2024.
(sigh) Annnnd here we go again. With another GOP trifecta and Trump's Project 2025 promising draconian cuts to federal spending, there's a very good chance that the Affordable Care Act is, once again, on the chopping block.
I have no idea what's going to happen to either it, Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the VA or the Indian Health Service, but whatever it is probably isn't gonna be pretty.
With that in mind, I figured it would be helpful to take stock of just how many Americans are actually receiving healthcare coverage through the ACA...and while I've crunched this number several times before (spoiler: the grand total is a little shy of 45 million people nationally), I'm taking it several steps further this time and breaking it out not only by state, but by Congressional District (CD).
First, they went live on April 1st with expanding their wildly popular Basic Health Plan program (called the Essential Plan), which was already providing comprehensive, affordable healthcare coverage to 1.4 million New Yorkers, up the income scale from maxing out at 200% of the Federal Poverty Level up to 250% FPL. This increased enrollment in the program to 1.5 million people.
Oregon becomes 3rd in nation to seek federal approval for a basic health program
A group of volunteer advisors to the Oregon Health Authority has voted Tuesday to make the state the third in the nation to seek federal approval for a basic health program.
...The Oregon Health Policy Board voted unanimously to approve Oregon’s blueprint application. It was the last step in a lengthy policy-making process needed for state approval of the plan after a task force last year recommended moving forward with it.
OK, I'm back from the Doctors for America conference! I'll be posting a write-up about that soon, but in the meantime I have a backlog of healthcare policy developments to catch up on...
Oregon becomes 3rd in nation to seek federal approval for a basic health program
A group of volunteer advisors to the Oregon Health Authority has voted Tuesday to make the state the third in the nation to seek federal approval for a basic health program.
...The Oregon Health Policy Board voted unanimously to approve Oregon’s blueprint application. It was the last step in a lengthy policy-making process needed for state approval of the plan after a task force last year recommended moving forward with it.
Earlier today I noted that New York has officially implemented their expansion of the Essential Plan, their branding of the ACA-funded Basic Health Plan (BHP) program that currently covers 1.2 million New Yorkers, from residents earning under 200% of the Federal Poverty Level up to those earning as much as 250% FPL.
In doing so, around 100,000 additional people are now enrolled in the BHP program, with roughly 62,000 of them now saving an average $4,700/year versus the ACA exchange plans they were previously enrolled in, plus another ~32,000 who I presume are completely new to either program.
New York's implementation of the ACA's Basic Health Plan provision (Section 1331 of the law) is called the Essential Plan. It currently serves 1.2 million New Yorkers, or over 4x as many residents as ACA exchange plans do.
Under the ACA, most states have expanded Medicaid to people with income up to 138 percent of the poverty level. But people with incomes very close to the Medicaid eligibility cutoff frequently experience changes in income that result in switching from Medicaid to ACA’s qualified health plans (QHPs) and back. This “churning” creates fluctuating healthcare costs and premiums, and increased administrative work for the insureds, the QHP carriers and Medicaid programs.
New York's implementation of the ACA's Basic Health Plan provision (Section 1331 of the law) is called the Essential Plan. It currently serves 1.2 million New Yorkers, or over 4x as many residents as ACA exchange plans do.
Under the ACA, most states have expanded Medicaid to people with income up to 138 percent of the poverty level. But people with incomes very close to the Medicaid eligibility cutoff frequently experience changes in income that result in switching from Medicaid to ACA’s qualified health plans (QHPs) and back. This “churning” creates fluctuating healthcare costs and premiums, and increased administrative work for the insureds, the QHP carriers and Medicaid programs.
New York's implementation of the ACA's Basic Health Plan provision (Section 1331 of the law) is called the Essential Plan. It currently serves over 1.1 million New Yorkers, or over 5x as many residents as ACA exchange plans do.
Under the ACA, most states have expanded Medicaid to people with income up to 138 percent of the poverty level. But people with incomes very close to the Medicaid eligibility cutoff frequently experience changes in income that result in switching from Medicaid to ACA’s qualified health plans (QHPs) and back. This “churning” creates fluctuating healthcare costs and premiums, and increased administrative work for the insureds, the QHP carriers and Medicaid programs.
The out-of-pocket differences between Medicaid and QHPs are significant, even for people with incomes just above the Medicaid eligibility threshold who qualify for cost-sharing subsidies.
In Oregon, Democrats passed a bill in March to establish a basic health program, the details of which are being ironed out by a task force that began meeting this week. In Kentucky, Republicans approved $4.5 million in state funds this spring to set up a basic health program, which was signed into law by the state’s Democratic governor. An estimated 85,000 Oregonians and at least 37,000 Kentuckians will be eligible to enroll in the plans as soon as next year.
New York's implementation of the ACA's Basic Health Plan provision (Section 1331 of the law) is called the Essential Plan. It currently serves over 1.1 million New Yorkers, or over 5x as many residents as ACA exchange plans do.
Under the ACA, most states have expanded Medicaid to people with income up to 138 percent of the poverty level. But people with incomes very close to the Medicaid eligibility cutoff frequently experience changes in income that result in switching from Medicaid to ACA’s qualified health plans (QHPs) and back. This “churning” creates fluctuating healthcare costs and premiums, and increased administrative work for the insureds, the QHP carriers and Medicaid programs.
The out-of-pocket differences between Medicaid and QHPs are significant, even for people with incomes just above the Medicaid eligibility threshold who qualify for cost-sharing subsidies.
