Medicare

Political battles are usually won based on appealing to emotion, not to facts, policy or logic.

However, you should still have those facts at your disposal for two reasons: First, they still help you craft appeals to emotion. Second, they also help you craft the actual policy. Besides, I'm a data guy; my primary job is to help put facts & policy into easily-understandable context.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

 

Pennsylvania Democratic Representative Brendon Boyle, on MSNBC last night:

Rep. Boyle: The one thing I would point out, though, is this bill is actually significantly worse [than the GOP's ACA repeal attempt in 2017], because this piece of legislation will throw 13.5 million, almost 14 million Americans off their healthcare.

First, you're cutting people off Medicaid. But second, this does include very deep cuts to Obamacare as well. And finally, I have breaking news for you tonight, that literally just came out in the last few minutes as I've been sitting here: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the official authority on these figures, has now confirmed that this bill, in addition to Medicaid cuts, in addition to Obamacare cuts, includes $500 BILLION WORTH OF CUTS TO MEDICARE that is now in this bill as well.

The Musk/Trump Regime has published an update to the official Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data:

November 2024 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In December 2024, 78.8 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
    • 71.5 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.3 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
    • 41.4 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 37.4 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Medicaid and CHIP Applications Received

  • In December 2024, Medicaid, CHIP, Human Services agencies, and State-based Marketplaces received 3.0 million applications, or 11 percent more applications, as compared to November 2024.
  • The number of applications received has increased by 30 percent since December 2023 and increased by 84 percent since December 2022.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in December 2024 dropped slightly from November, by 171,000 people or 0.2%.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services just published updated enrollment data for Medicare, adding January 2024 to the data archive.

So far, after a 2-month initial delay, the Musk/Trump Regime has been posting updated Medicare enrollment data roughly once per month. We'll see if that continues.

Whether the data posted since January 20, 2025 is accurate or not, I can't say for certain, but at least they're updating it...and so far, at least, I don't see anything in their November 2024, December 2024 or January 2025 reports which is setting off any obvious red flags.

As of this writing, the same can't be said for the monthly Medicaid/CHIP enrollment reports, which are usually updated the same day as the Medicare reports, but which have remained stuck on October 2024 since before Trump was inaugurated in January.

In any event, according to the latest report, as of January 2025:

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

After a concerning 2-month delay, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has finally published an update to the official Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data:

November 2024 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In November 2024, 79.0 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
    • 71.8 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.3 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
    • 41.5 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 37.5 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Medicaid and CHIP Applications Received

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services just published updated enrollment data for Medicare, adding both December 2024 to the data archive.

This follows prior updates of October & November 2024 Medicare enrollment data, which suggests that the Musk/Trump Admin will continue to post updated enrollment data, at least for the time being.

Whether the data posted since January 20, 2025 is accurate or not, I can't say for certain, but at least they're updating it...and I don't see anything in the December update which leaps out at me as being an obvious red flag.

As of this writing, the same can't be said for the monthly Medicaid/CHIP enrollment reports, which are usually updated the same day as the Medicare reports, but which have remained stuck on October 2024 since before Trump was inaugurated in January.

In any event, according to the latest report, as of December 2024:

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