Methodology reminders:

• I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • Note: I've temporarily stopped tracking boosters again, as it appears that the data on this front is still too confused to get an accurate county-level national read.

• I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).

• For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
  • For Vermont and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database
  • For Virginia, I'm using the official state health department dashboard, but am only updating it once a month since it doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort.

This is potentially a pretty big deal:

As part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s work to advance health equity and reduce health disparities, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is seeking feedback on topics related to health care access, such as enrolling in and maintaining coverage, accessing health care services and supports, and ensuring adequate provider payment rates to encourage provider availability and quality. This Request for Information (RFI) is one of many actions CMS is taking to develop a more comprehensive access strategy in its Medicaid and CHIP programs.

“We are committed to providing equitable access to quality health care and removing any barriers to quality health care,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. “We want to hear directly from stakeholders so we can strengthen our programs for the more than 80 million Americans with Medicaid or CHIP health insurance. Together, by advancing health equity, we can ensure quality health care is within reach for everyone who needs it.” 

Last month I noted that a press release from New York State of Health (NY's ACA exchange) was kind of oddly worded:

...several paragraphs later, you get this:

...Extending the Open Enrollment Period for QHP’s aligns with the coverage rules for public programs also administered through NY State of Health. New Yorkers need to enroll by January 15 for coverage starting February 1 and by February 15 for coverage starting March 1.

In other words, they've bumped out the final deadline by another 2 weeks, through 2/15. Why this isn't mentioned until 5 paragraphs in, I have no idea, but whatever.

At the time, I assumed that they had extended their 2022 Open Enrollment Period deadline through February 15th, as I didn't see any other press releases clarifying things.

Well, it turns out they did extend it, but not through any specific date:

As I just noted, the end of the official COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, whenever it happens (it's currently scheduled to end as of April 16th but could be extended once again at any point before then) will cause a new problem:

Millions of Americans currently enrolled in Medicaid will likely no longer be legally eligible to remain on the public healthcare program, threatening to cause a massive overload of agencies and potentially leaving many of them stranded without any healthcare coverage at all.

I noted at the end that leadership in certain states are (sadly) gleefully anticipating exactly that outcome, while others are (thankfully) scrambling to try and deal with the fallout. Case in point, Oregon, where Elizabeth Hayes reports in the Portland Business Journal that...

Legislation to help about 300,000 Oregonians on Medicaid to maintain their coverage after the Covid-19 public health emergency ends advanced out of committee on Monday.

I wrote about this last summer, but as the Omicron variant wave of COVID-19 seems to be winding down (with an emphasis on seems) and the federal Public Health Emergency (PHE) declaration currently set to expire in 60 days (April 16, 2022), today felt like a good time to repost something about the situation:

What goes up usually goes back down eventually, and that's likely to be the case with Medicaid enrollment as soon as the public health crisis formally ends...whenever that may be.

Well, yesterday Ryan Levi and Dan Gorenstein of of the Tradeoffs healthcare policy podcast posted a new episode which attempts to dig into just when that might be, how many people could be kicked off of the program once that time comes and how to mitigate the fallout (I should note that they actually reference my own estimate in the program notes):

via Maryland Health Connection:

• Last chance to shop and enroll in a 2022 health plan

(BALTIMORE) — Marylanders have less than two weeks left to enroll in health coverage that begins March 1, 2022. This year, open enrollment through Maryland Health Connection was extended due to the public health emergency. Maryland residents can enroll in a private health insurance plan until Feb 28, 2022.

“More than 180,000 people have signed up for a health plan since open enrollment began in November. Maryland Health Connection has seen 9% growth over 2021,” said Michele Eberle, executive director of the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange. “This is the last chance for Marylanders to get health insurance this year, and there are more savings for young adults and those with higher incomes than ever.”

This enrollment period is for private health plans only. Those who qualify for Medicaid may enroll any time of year.

via Access Health CT:

Access Health CT Announces Special Enrollment Period For Covered Connecticut Program

• Eligible Connecticut residents have until June 30 to enroll

HARTFORD, Conn. (Feb. 15, 2022) — Access Health CT (AHCT) today announced a Special Enrollment Period for the Covered Connecticut Program that provides health insurance at no cost to Connecticut residents who meet eligibility requirements. This Special Enrollment Period runs now through June 30.

Created and funded by the State of Connecticut, the Covered Connecticut Program pays the customer’s portion of the monthly payment (premium) directly to their insurance company. The program also covers the cost-sharing amounts they would typically have to pay with a health insurance plan, such as co-pays, co-insurance, deductibles and maximum out-of-pocket costs.

via Covered California:

Covered California Names Jessica Altman as Its New Chief Executive Officer

• Jessica Altman comes to Covered California from Pennsylvania, where she currently serves as the Commonwealth’s insurance commissioner, regulating the fifth-largest insurance market in the nation.

• Altman brings a wealth of experience and knowledge from serving as chair of the Pennsylvania Health Insurance Exchange Authority and having led the establishment of Pennie, Pennsylvania’s state-based marketplace under the Affordable Care Act.

• Altman will step into this new role following the planned departure of Peter V. Lee, Covered California’s founding executive director, who has led the organization since its inception more than a decade ago.

For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).

This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.

Now that we're a full two months into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.

The "start" of the Delta Wave was easy to lock in for my purposes; both cases and deaths from COVID had dropped off dramatically right up until around the end of June. The Delta Wave started showing up in the daily deaths pretty quickly as July started. The transition from the Delta to Omicron was a lot fuzzier, but I've decided to go with December 15th as my transition point.

As always, here's my methodology:

Methodology reminders:

• I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • Note: I've temporarily stopped tracking boosters again, as it appears that the data on this front is still too confused to get an accurate county-level national read.

• I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).

• For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
  • For Vermont and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database
  • For Virginia, I've (reluctantly) switched back to using COVID Act Now data even though it's had some strange data lately. I'd normally use the official state health department dashboard, but theirs doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort.