The DC exchange may be small, but every person counts. The only irritating thing about their reports is that they always refer to them as being cumulative since October 2013, instead of only counting those who have enrolled or renewed their policies since 11/15/14. I went through this a few weeks back and concluded that yes, the numbers below are accurate for 2015:
More Than 80,500 People Enrolled in Health Coverage Through DC Health Link
Friday, February 13, 2015
Enrollment
From October 1, 2013 to February 8, 2015, 80,578 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private insurance or Medicaid:
20,358 people enrolled in a private qualified health plan,
44,457 people have been determined eligible for Medicaid, and
15,763 people enrolled through the DC Health Link small business marketplace (includes Congressional enrollment).
And so, the Open Enrollment Period extensions are officially underway. I was expecting underperforming states like Washington and Minnesota to be the first out of the gate, but instead, the first three states to make formal announcements are California, Massachusetts and now, New York:
California: Yesterday, CoveredCA announced a 5-day "Waiting in Line" extension policy (ie, as long as you've started the enrollment process as of midnight on Sunday 2/15, you'll have until Friday, 2/20 to complete the process.
Massachusetts: Just a few hours ago, the MA Health Connector announced that due to getting slammed with 3 massive snowstorms in the past few weeks, as well as a 4th major one sweeping in right now, they're bumping out the full enrollment period (ie, no "have to be in line already" caveat) by a full 8 days, until February 23rd.
And just this moment, the New York State of Health has announced that like California, they're going the "Waiting in Line" route: Anyone who starts the process by midnight Sunday will have until February 28th to actually select a plan and check out. It's important to note that NY residents who enroll between 2/16 - 2/28 won't have their policy kick in until April 1st, however.
This is something of an exclusive: I've received official notice from the Maryland Health Connection exchange that as of last night, their enrollment totals stood at:
Not as dramatic of a surge as some other states, but then again, with today's update, Maryland is already 2% higher than my target number (105K), which was in turn 19% higher than the HHS Dept's target number (88K), which itself was 30% higher than their 2014 total (67,757).
OK, first, the official data updates: The MA Health Connector issued their weekly report, confirming 125,651 QHP selections to date, of which 82.2% have paid their first premium. The payment rate hasgone down as expected, since the denominator (March 1st enrollments) has started shooting up while the numerator (payments made) has gone up more slowly...since those payments aren't even due until the 23rd anyway.
Compared to the past 2 weeks, you can see the final surge has definitely kicked in:
Hmm...well, things are starting to pick up heading into the final weekend of Open Enrollment in Minnesota...
Latest Enrollment Numbers
February 13, 2015
MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.
Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 66,538
MinnesotaCare 24,457 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 49,238
TOTAL 140,233
Last night I noted, in an entry about CoveredCA announcing a 5-day "start by 2/15, finish by 2/20" Open Enrollment extension period and the potential for a separate "Tax Season" enrollment period), that according to the director of advocacy group Health Access, the Affordable Care Act doesn't regulate any specific time window regarding Open Enrollment Periods.
I found this fascinating, because until that point, I had assumed that there was some sort of language in the ACA specifying, if not the exact dates, at least the total number of days (ie, something along the lines of "...not to exceed 200 days in the first calendar year, not to exceed 100 days in subsequent calendar years"). I also assumed that there would be some sort of clause allowing for the limited enrollment the rest of the year for people who have Qualifying Life Events (marriage, divorce, childbirth, loss of income, etc).
Two late-breaking news items, one negative, the other potentially positive:
Arkansas:The good news a few weeks ago was that newly-elected Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson did not kill off AR's unique "private option" Medicaid expansion program as many had feared; instead, he actually proposed extending it pretty much as is for another 2 years, to the relief of decent folks, and the state legislature seemed to be OK with that (another surprise).
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (Reuters) - Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas has signed legislation that will end by 2017 the state’s innovative but controversial adaptation of the Affordable Care Act, which has provided nearly 190,000 residents with health coverage.
Yes, lame I know, but it's the best I could think of. Assuming my final week projections are playing out accurately, total exchange QHP selections should cross the 11 Million mark by midnight tonight.
There's only been one actual data update so far today, but it's a big one: California just got bumped up by 66K. Tomorrow should bring several final updates before the final weekend, from the 3 M's: Maryland, Massachusetts and Minnesota. A few other states may chime in as well, probably tossing a rounded number out there in the middle of a final deadline press release (the way that California and Washington just did).
At this point, I'd say the odds of hitting given marks are:
11.0 million: 99.999% (nothing is certain...what if there's a national blackout starting RIGHT NOW which lasts for the next 4 days?)
12.5 million: 75% (this has been my official projection since Dec. 12th)
13.0 million: 25% (?)
13.5 million: 5% (???)
On the other hand, even if the demand is there, anything beyond 13 million would probably crash several of the servers/overload the phone lines, requiring an official "extension period" like they added last April, in which case all bets are off.
Here's what things should look like as of tonight:
