Last week I posted an exclusive piece over at healthinsurance.org called "Hating ‘Obama’ but loving the ‘Care’ which noted an ongoing irony: The very red/red-leaning states which tend to "hate" the ACA the most are actually the ones signing up for it in droves. At the time, by grouping the states into one category or the other (using judgment calls for some states...I put Michigan in the blue column but Wisconsin in the red, for instance), I noted that the red states had a dramatically higher number of enrollments, even when the total populations are nearly identical in each group.

Today I've updated this data with the most recent numbers, and the difference is even more striking.

Now, there are a few important caveats here:

The numbers are starting to quetly ramp up again as we approach the MA Health Connector's extended enrollment deadline (February 23rd): 1,247 QHP determinations on Monday; 1,678 on Tuesday and 2,366 yesterday. Assuming at least 70% of these went on to actually enroll (I can't imagine it'd be any lower than that at this point...who would bother applying this late in the game if they don't plan on following through??), actual QHP selections should be up to 132.5K or higher at this point.

Medicaid in Massachusetts is now up to over 260,000.

At this point, either the original estimates were way off, the economic situation in Michigan has changed dramatically since last year, or there's something seriously weird going on:

Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics

Beneficiaries with Healthy Michigan Plan Coverage: 559,965
(Includes beneficiaries enrolled in health plans and beneficiaries not required to enroll in a health plan.)

*Statistics as of February 17, 2015 
*Updated every Monday at 3 p.m.

Again, the original estimates were that somewhere between 477K - 500K Michiganders were eligible for the program. They're up to between 12% - 17% above that range now.

This is a "mini" update, as it doesn't include the final weekend, but it still means that CT nudged over their internal 100K target without those last 2 crucial days:

As of 2/13, there were 103,007 QHP Enrollees and 433,429 medicaid customers. #AHCTBoDMeeting

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) February 19, 2015

The Medicaid number is a bit misleading; I'm almost certain  that 433K figure refers to everyone in Medicaid state-wide, not just via ACA expansion. The state only has 3.6 million people total; I find it difficult to believe that 12% of the population falls into the expansion range specifically.

They also threw in the SHOP tally:

Dental plans & the SHOP program continues to show solid gains. Over 1,100 SHOP members enrolled. #AHCTBoDMeeting

Kentucky's Kynect Facebook page, last night:

Open enrollment with kynect ended this past weekend on February 15, 2015. If Kentuckians make a good faith effort to complete their enrollments with kynect prior to the February 15, 2015 deadline but were unable to do so due to technical difficulties with the application process or problems reaching the call center, we will work with applicants to secure that coverage through February 28, 2015.

Please contact the call center at 1-855-4kynect and ask to be transferred to the Kentucky Health Benefit Exchange (KHBE) Tier II staff for assistance with these applications.

Kentucky was the last state to announce some sort of of "In Line by Midnight"/Overtime extension period.

I'm not at all surprised that the exchanges are starting to announce "tax season" enrollment periods already. The only thing I'm surprised by is the length of these special periods. I figured they'd do something like April 1st - 15th...instead, all 3 (Washington, Minnesota and now Vermont) are going for 2-month periods or even longer:

• WA: 2/17 - 4/17 (effectively just extending the enrollment period by 2 months)
• MN: 3/01 - 4/30
• VT: 2/16 - 5/31 (a full 3 1/2 months...with the caveat that it has to be "within 60 days of discovering" that they have to pay the fee, which isn't exactly the sort of thing that one can prove one way or the other, y'know?)

Again, it's important to keep in mind that there are 3 main reasons for having a deadline/cut-off at all: First, prevents people from gaming the system by waiting until they're sick to enroll. Secondly, it allows the insurance companies ample time for their actuaries to crunch the numbers for the next year. Finally, it acts as a great motivator, as evidenced by the huge surges in December and again last week (even if the 2nd surge wasn't quite as large as I was expecting).

UPDATED 2/19/15 11:55pm: New data from Colorado, DC and Vermont added!
UPDATED 2/20/15 10:10PM: New data from Massachusetts, Connecticut & Kentucky

OK, hopefully there will be at least another 400K+ to plug into these tables, but with the official deadline out of the way, we have a pretty solid picture of where the states stand now.

Again, it's important to remember that the 2014 numbers included the 2-week "overtime" period, when 900K additional people selected a plan, while the 2015 numbers only include the official enrollment period.

In fact, there's still up to a solid month of data missing from several states for this year!!

Last February, when the "But how many have PAID???" right-wing meme started to take hold, I pointed out, over and over again, that:

1. yes, it's a perfectly legitimate and relevant question to ask, but
2. the time to ask it isn't until AFTER the dust settles on the enrollment period.

Why? Because it's a rolling average. The million-plus people who selected a plan in the final 9 days of open enrollment don't even start their policy coverage until March 1st. Many of their premium payments aren't due for another week. Most people tend to wait until just a few days before the due date to pay their cable, gas, phone bills...and with automated billing, in many cases the payment will go through automatically on the due date itself anyway. 

Three more updates to the #ACAOvertime Deadline Extension Roundup:

• First, as noted this morning, California has tacked on an extra 2 days to their "In Line by Midnight" period (previously ending on 2/20; now extended to 2/22)

• Second, Vermont, which didn't appear to be allowing for any extra time beyond postmarking a paper application as of Tuesday, has apparently decided to go ahead and allow an "In Line by Midnight" exception thorugh February 23rd:

But by February 18, the exchange was offering an extension to people who tried to enroll by February 15 but were unable to do so by the deadline.  This has not been published on the exchange website, but an exchange representative confirmed that the extension runs through February 23, and that the call center (855-899-9600) will help enrollees complete the process between now and then.

Another 1,678 QHP determinations yesterday. At this point, I think it's safe to say that pretty much anyone who's bothering to go through the trouble of setting up an account and submitting an application is also following through and selecting a plan, but for the moment I'll just go with 60% and figure 1,000 people actually did so, for 131K or more total.

Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollment is up to over 256K.