This isn't an exact apples-to-apples comparison, since the Massachusetts number includes the "overtime" extension period while the other 5 states only run through 2/15/15, but I thought it would be useful to see how the 6 exchanges which had widespread technical issues last year fared this time around. Obviously other states like Washington and California had some snafus, but these are the ones which were seriously hosed last year to the point of requiring massive overhauls or which were completely scrapped in favor of a new platform (I'm not including HC.gov itself here since everyone already knows what massive technical improvements they've made).
The chart below refers specifically to QHP selections only (whether paid or not), and compares the 2015 open enrollment period (11/15/14 - 2/15/15...or 2/26 in the case of MA) against the 2014 open enrollment period (10/1/13 - 4/19/14). I've also included some notes for context.
As I noted earlier, I've been expecting final #OE2 numbers from at least two states, Massachusetts & Minnesota. MA has just come through with an extremely detailed report.
In addition, they've given me a partial answer to my earlier question: Yes, they do plan on releasing off-season enrollment data at least monthly (via their board meetings), and possibly weekly (I'm guessing daily would be too much to ask during the off-season). So, I can count on off-season data from at least 1 state...49+DC to go...
They also said that they don't know about a Tax Season Special Enrollment Period yet, and did not have any SHOP data or Medicaid expansion-vs-woodworker data yet.
Finally, one interesting MA-specific quirk: "ConnectorCare" enrollees...which are QHP enrollees but are heavily subsidized by the state as well (I think this is sort of like Arkansas' Medicaid "private option"?)...can be enrolled in year-round. This could be significant during the off-season, espeically since this makes up 64% of the total QHP number to date.
With that, in the end, Massachusetts final official numbers are:
UPDATE: I've confirmed that Maryland and Massachusetts do both plan on continuing to issue at least monthly reports during the off season (I'd prefer weekly but I'll take what I can get).
As of today (February 27th), the 2015 Open Enrollment Period has ended in 47 states (KY, MD, NY & WA states are still allowing "In Line by Midnight" extensions through tomorrow night or all the way out until April, and CO, CT, DC & HI have taken a sort of "case by case basis" approach with no specific hard deadline).
I'm expecting final official #OE2 enrollment reports from Massachusetts and Minnesota later today, but otherwise have to catch up on a bunch of my actual day job work. Here's three quick things to note:
MARYLAND: The Maryland Health Connection has released a big slideshow PDF with a mountain of demographic info. The only gripe I have is that it only runs through 2/15, so doesn't include the extra folks who signed up during the #ACAOvertime period. Data nerds, rejoice!!
I keep reading stories like this one at the Washington Examiner lately (about the GOP hand-wringing over the potential backlash if they "win" the King v. Burwell case at the Supreme Court):
GOP scrambles to keep Obamacare subsidies flowing in case of Supreme Court victory
Mazel Tov to HealthSourceRI for being the first of the state-based exchanges to release their full 2015 Open Enrollment Period (with #ACAOvertime included) results. HC.gov released their collective total yesterday, but haven't broken it out by state yet; Kentucky released data through 2/19 but their extension period isn't over until Saturday; and I have a rough estimate for Massachusetts, but they won't release their official tally until tomorrow.
PROVIDENCE – HealthSource RI (HSRI) has released enrollment data, certain demographic data and certain volume metrics through Monday, February 23, 2015, for Open Enrollment and the Special Enrollment Period (due to previous weather closings at the contact center and walk-in locations).
Yesterday, with the final HC.gov "weekly snapshot" report released, I was able to put together almost all of the puzzle pieces for 2015 open enrollment (there's still a few small pieces left...a month of Idaho data, plus the "overtime" data for California, Massachusetts and the other 12 state-run exchanges). My takeaway was that when the dust settles, the grand total of exchange-based QHP selections will be around 11.74 million people.
*(I really, really hope this isn't the final one...)
“More than half of the 4.17 million people who re-enrolled in coverage during Open Enrollment came back and actively selected a plan and more than half of those consumers selected a new plan,” said Andy Slavitt, Principal Deputy Administrator of CMS. “Based on my experience looking at enrollment trends with employer-sponsored coverage and Medicare, it is clear that Marketplace consumers are more active, engaged, and eager to shop for the coverage that's right for them.”
Important: Technically this is not the "final" comparison of 2015 (full year) vs. 2014 (full year), since there's still the upcoming "Tax Season" enrollment period, along with additional enrollments/policy cancellations throughout the rest of the year via qualifying life events (marriage, divorce, giving birth, losing/gaining a job, moving to a new state, etc).
However, in terms of the 6-month-plus-2-week 2014 period and the 3-month-plus-1-week 2015 period, this is as close as I can get to an apples-to-apples comparison.
The HHS Dept. projected roughly a 30% enrollment increase this year (10.4 million QHP selections, 9.1 million actual paid enrollments). I projected roughly a 56% increase (12.5 million selections, 11.0 million paid).
In the end, it split the difference towards the high end: Over 11.7 million selected, of which around 10.3 million either have or are about to pay for at least their first monthly premium. This corresponds to roughly a 46% increase over 2014.
