In a classic case of missing the forest for the trees, I posted two very wonky, detailed entries over the past couple of days about Minnesota and Connecticut's latest enrollment numbers...but completely missed one crucially important data point.
I noted last month that the Massachusetts Health Connector had increased their effectuated QHP enrollee total by around 12,000 people in the first month of the off season, which goes against the expected net attition expected once Open Enrollment ends.
However, I also noted that MA is unusual in that most of their exchange QHPs are in the form of "ConnectorCare" plans, which are availble for enrollment year round, just like Medicaid and SHOP enrollment. As a result, this increase, while legitimate, can not be used to extrapolate anything nationally.
The Massachusetts ACA exchange reported exactly 196,554 QHP selections (including the still-qualifying "ConnectorCare" plans) as of January 31st, the final day of the 2016 Open Enrollment Period.
They just held their March board meeting, which always include highly detailed powerpoint charts & graphs running through the end of the prior month...so here's where things stand after the first month of the off season. The main number: The official effectuated enrollment number is up to 208,374 (remember, Massachusetts doesn't even report QHP enrollees until they've actually paid their premium. It'd be awesome if every other exchange was able to do so as well, as that would finally kill off the "But how many have PAID??" talking point once and for all.
And then there are the portions of the law which have gone, well, not so great, to put it mildly...in particular the non-profit, public/private hybrid Co-Ops, which are the only remaining remnant of the originally much-hoped-for "Public Option". For a variety of reasons, not the least of which was an utterly unnecessary and ultimately pointless stunt pulled by Marco Rubio and other Congressional Republicans (aka the Risk Corridor Massacre), over half of the two dozen Co-Ops nationwide melted down in spectacular fashion last fall, leaving only 11 of them surviving into 2016 after the dust settled.
In light of this, I figured it would be worth posting some positive Co-Op news for a change. First up, Ohio.
As of this morning, there were still 4 states with some 2016 Open Enrollment data missing: Idaho, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont. The Massachusetts exchange board held their monthly meeting today, so I can cross one more state off the list:
By early February, approximately 201,000 individuals were enrolled in 2016 health coverage.
Over 36,000 new members are enrolled in QHPs. For a frame of reference, our new members amount to about 15% of the size of last year’s estimated uninsured population*
Of the approximately 27,000 new members who indicated a race or ethnicity in their application, about 12% are of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin, 8% are African American and 4% are Chinese
We continue to see a high retention rate for our 2015 membership at about 94%
Individuals who selected a plan between January 24th and January 31st still have time to pay for coverage effective March 1, so new membership tied to Open Enrollment may continue to grow
In 2014, Massachusetts' ACA exchange website was one of the biggest disasters of the site rollouts, managing to enroll fewer than 32,000 people while flushing tens of millions of dollars down the drain. The biggest problem was that the system couldn't accurately determine whether enrollees were eligibile for federal tax credits or not...which was kind of important since around 85% of enrollees nationally qualify for them.
This was especially embarrassing given that not only is Massachusetts considered a major technology base (hey, it's right there in the name: Massachusetts Institute of Technology...), it was also, of course, the home of the precursor to the Affordable Care Act, aka "RomneyCare". You can read the entire ugly story in vivid detail thanks to Ed Lyon's amasingly detailed Health Connector Autopsy Report.
Massachusetts' #OE3 enrollment numbers have to be handled a little carefully. Unlike most exchanges which mainly report the number of Qualified Health Plan (QHP) selections (ie, placed in cart & checked out), the Massachusetts Health Connector is very careful to specify how many of those are actually entered into the system and have paid their first monthly premium.
Rep. Rusche asked what our target enrollment is for this cycle and what barriers we see in making those targets. Mr. Kelly said the team is focused on the 80% goal of 92,000 as our enrollment target.Premium increases are a potential barrier. Net premium is a relatively small increase for most consumers, and each consumer will experience something different depending Page 5 of 14 on their plan, their location, their carrier, etc. We feel that while the premiums are increasing the relatively small net premium increase will mitigate this barrier to a large degree.
When I asked for clarification, they informed me that:
We currently have 86,659 effectuated enrollments with Your Health Idaho, as of September 15. The 92,000 would also refer to effectuated enrollments.
