At a bare, bare minimum, do not settle for a one- or two-year extension of the eAPTCs.
Kicking this particular can down the road for only one or two years would not only be an absolute gift to Republicans politically (since it would push the pain out until just past the midterms, which is of course the only reason why any Republicans are willing to discuss doing so at all), but it would also mean we'd be right back here with the exact same scary headlines a year or two from now, with 24 million people never knowing whether their health insurance premiums are going to skyrocket from year to year.
Nothing is worse for the insurance industry than uncertainty, and anytime they're uncertain about anything you can be sure they'll jack up rates as a "just in case" cushion.
Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 800 likely voters on November 18, 2025, conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, across 16 GOP-held battleground districts rated Toss Up or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Wyoming has ~46,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most). Combined, that's around 8% of their total population.
(Note, however, that the official actuarial rate filings for the 3 carriers offering coverage in the Wyoming individual market only report a combined total of around 39,000 enrollees as of spring 2025, or 6.6% of the total population).
Texas has ~3.9 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps ~67,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Combined, that's over 4.0 MILLION Texans, although although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like ~3.8 million statewide.
Mississippi has around ~338,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Nebraska has around ~136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Alaska has around ~28,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees in ACA-compliant individual market policies. Overall, including net attrition, I estimate their total enrollment both on & off exchange to be perhaps ~27,000 or so.
Kansas has around 200,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
New Hampshire has around ~70,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 71% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
