There are 43 U.S. House districts where the Republican nominee won by 15 points or less. Of those, one (WA-04) doesn't really count since there were 2 Republicans running in the general election (Washington State has "jungle primaries"). Four others were won by Donald Trump by between 16 - 20 points (AZ-08, CO-04, TX-15 & WI-08).
That leaves 38 GOP-held House seats where the Republican won by 15 pts or less and where either Kamala Harris won, or Donald Trump also won by 15 points or less. The table below breaks these out with both margins, while also listing my estimate of how many residents of each district are enrolled in ACA coverage.
Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 800 likely voters on November 18, 2025, conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, across 16 GOP-held battleground districts rated Toss Up or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
