Statement by President Biden on the final sliver of Build Back Better which Sen. Joe Manchin is (supposedly) going to allow the honor of his vote:

Action on climate change and clean energy remains more urgent than ever.

So let me be clear: If the Senate will not move to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, I will take strong executive action to meet this moment. My actions will create jobs, improve our energy security, bolster domestic manufacturing and supply chains, protect us from oil and gas price hikes in the future, and address climate change. I will not back down: The opportunity to create jobs and build a clean energy future is too important to relent.

via NBC News:

WASHINGTON — Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and his staff told Democratic leadership on Thursday that he's not willing to support major climate and tax provisions in a sweeping Biden agenda bill, according to a Democrat briefed on the conversations.

Instead, Manchin, a key centrist who holds the swing vote in the 50-50 Senate, said he is willing to back only a filibuster-proof economic bill with drug pricing and a two-year extension of funding under the Affordable Care Act, the source said.

Manchin's move upends lengthy negotiations with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., most likely forcing the party to scrap climate change policies and new taxes and delivering a major blow to some of President Joe Biden's priorities heading into an already challenging midterm election landscape for Democrats this fall.

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via Covered California:

  • With Congress scheduled to recess at the end of July, and health insurance marketplaces finalizing their rates for the 2023 coverage year, timely action to decide on the future of the American Rescue Plan’s benefits is critical.
  • The law, which provides increased and expanded federal financial assistance and helped millions of Americans sign up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, is set to expire at the end of this year.
  • An estimated 220,000 Californians could become uninsured, with premiums doubling for 1 million low-income consumers.
  • Middle-income consumers would lose all federal financial help, and their premiums would increase by an average of $272 per month if Congress does not act to extend the law.

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via Hans Nichols of Axios:

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) is gauging support among House centrists for a counteroffer to the emerging Senate reconciliation package, with one big clause: No new taxes.

Why it matters: Any attempt to modify a deal that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may reach with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) could scuttle the entire package. That could deprive President Biden — and vulnerable lawmakers — of a pre-election win at a time of real weakness.

Gottheimer's discussions target a small group that includes Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.) Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.).

...Gottheimer's formula would leave $177 billion for deficit reduction — a step toward Manchin but a long way from his roughly $500 billion target.

...After declaring Biden’s original $2.2 trillion social spending and climate package dead last December, Manchin revived talks with Schumer on a much smaller deal this spring, and the two sides are continuing their negotiations.

As I noted a couple of weeks ago, Sword of Damocles dangling over the. head of extending the enhanced premium subsidies temporarily included as part of the American Rescue Plan has been circling the runway in an on-again, off-again pattern for the past month or two.

I know I mangled several metaphors there, but the bottom line is that it's starting to look like Senate Democrats may end up bringing it in for a landing after all. Yesterday, via Benjy Sarlin & Sahil Kapur of NBC News:

Manchin weighs options for extending ACA funding to avert premium hikes

The ticking time bomb is getting louder every day as time runs out for the expanded ACA subsidies which were temporarily provided by the American Rescue Plan to be made permanent:

The looming disaster on Obamacare subsidies keeps looking worse

Congressional Democrats are confronting a ticking time bomb that threatens both the health security of millions of Americans and Democrats’ own political security in the midterm elections. If they don’t act fast, it’s going to explode.

...Now, another group of Democrats outside Washington is getting increasingly nervous about this prospect. Democratic governors, many of whom are up for reelection this year, don’t want to watch while Congress makes life more difficult for their constituents.

Underscoring the point, a group of Democratic governors has released a new letter imploring congressional leaders to extend the enhanced subsidies.

Once again, here's what the Affordable Care Act's premium subsidy tables look like under the original ACA itself and under the American Rescue Plan (ARP). The premium caps are the maximum percent of household income which a household has to pay for the benchmark Silver plan at various income ranges.

The ARP table is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of December, at which point, without legislation passing Congress & being signed into law by President Biden, it will revert back to the original ACA subsidy table:

(sigh) The Sword of Damocles continues to dangle over the head of the Affordable Care Act. This time it isn't about an existential threat to the PPACA, at least...but the expanded/enhanced subsidies which were put into place temporarily by the American Rescue Plan (ARP) are definitely at risk.

Just a week or so ago, things were looking promising...

Conversations are underway between Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer to negotiate a budget reconciliation bill, which would require only a simple majority for passage, that would meet Manchin’s demands without losing support from other Democrats.

...Another Manchin condition is that the measure avoid any “cliffs” that sunset new programs early to keep the price tag down, something Manchin argues artificially hides the true costs since programs will prove too popular not to extend.

A month ago I posted an analysis which gave a general idea of how much more various households will have to pay in health insurance premiums if the expanded financial subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan (ARP) are allowed to expire at the end of this year.

Again, here's what the subsidy tables look like under the ACA itself and under the American Rescue Plan. The premium caps are the maximum percent of household income which a household has to pay for the benchmark Silver plan at various income ranges:

A few weeks ago I sounded the alarm about the massive health insurance premium rate hikes which millions of ACA enrollees will face starting in January 2023 if the American Rescue Plan's (ARP) enhanced premium tax credits aren't extended beyond their current expiration date at the end of 2022.

Today, the Urban Institute, supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, released a detailed analysis which projects just how many people would likely find themselves priced out of the health insurance market, thus losing healthcare coverage, if the ARP subsidies aren't extended. They delve into the impact at different income brackets and even break out their estimates by state:

Key Findings