For months now I've been warning that the initial data published about the 2026 ACA enrollment would likely massively underestimate just how ugly things were in terms of both effectuated enrollment as well as how comprehensive the coverage would be for those who did enroll.
Back in December, when Open Enrollment was still going on, I noted that regardless of what the official number of Americans who selected an exchange plan during Open Enrollment was, the actual number of those who would have effectuated coverage over the course of the year would likely be far lower:
So, what will this graph look like for 2026?
...IF that's what ends up happening, it would look something like the following:
Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, made his final pitch to Senate Democrats on a plan to revive expired health care subsidies on Wednesday, according to a copy of the legislation obtained by Semafor.
The Ohio Republican is pitching a one-year extension of the enhanced premium tax credits that expired at the end of last year with an option to use Health Savings Accounts after 2026. it would also bar “individuals not lawfully present” in the US from receiving benefits under the bill.
...The proposal also includes a minimum $5 monthly payment on subsidized plans; extends open enrollment until March 31; imposes penalties on fraud; requires audits of states’ compliance with the Hyde amendment barring taxpayer funding on abortions; includes cost-sharing reduction payments; and caps the subsidies at 700% of the federal poverty level.
