Kill the Cliff

Originally posted 1/10/25

USE THE DROPDOWN MENU ABOVE TO PICK A STATE.

It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

Originally posted 1/25/25

South Dakota has around ~54,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~58,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 54,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/30/25

Vermont has around ~32,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~35,000 people, although the official carrier rate filings claim it's more like 36,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/12/24

Washington State has around ~308,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 73% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~29,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~338,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 310,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/07/25

Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~652,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 609,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/17/24

Utah has around ~421,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~17,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~438,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 410,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/15/24

Rhode Island has around ~42,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~45,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 42,000 statewide.

Originally posted 2/4/25

West Virginia has ~67,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most).

Originally posted 12/30/24

New Jersey has around ~513,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 85% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~76,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~590,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 550,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/26/25

Illinois has around ~466,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 90% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~57,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~523,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 488,000 statewide.

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