9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
Wyoming has ~46,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most). Combined, that's around 8% of their total population.
(Note, however, that the official actuarial rate filings for the 3 carriers offering coverage in the Wyoming individual market only report a combined total of around 39,000 enrollees as of spring 2025, or 6.6% of the total population).
Texas has ~3.9 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps ~67,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Combined, that's over 4.0 MILLION Texans, although although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like ~3.8 million statewide.
Mississippi has around ~338,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Nebraska has around ~136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Alaska has around ~28,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees in ACA-compliant individual market policies. Overall, including net attrition, I estimate their total enrollment both on & off exchange to be perhaps ~27,000 or so.
Kansas has around 200,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
New Hampshire has around ~70,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 71% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Missouri has around ~417,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,600 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
