Kill the Cliff

Originally posted 1/04/25

Georgia has around ~1.5 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~30,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.54 million people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 1.44 MILLION statewide.

Originally posted 1/03/25

Oregon has around ~140,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 80% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~34,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~173,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 162,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/21/24

North Dakota has around ~43,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~16,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~59,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 55,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/01/25

New Mexico has around ~70,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 85% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~8,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 78,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 70,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/16/25

Nevada has around ~110,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 87% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~23,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 133,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 125,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/20/24

Oklahoma has around ~293,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~7,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~315,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 300,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/20/20

Nebraska has around ~136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 139,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 130,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/29/25

Pennsylvania has around ~496,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 87% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~103,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 600,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 560,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/05/25

New Hampshire has around ~70,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 71% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 85,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 80,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/10/24

New York has around ~222,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 63% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~31,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~253,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 235,000 statewide.