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In mid-December, I posted an update to my 2024 ACA Open Enrollment Period projections in which I upgraded my prior estimate of 18.5 million QHPs + BHPs combined to more than 19 million total.

A few days later, based on a press release from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announcing over 15.3 million QHPs via the federal exchange alone, I updated my projection significantly more, to around 20.7 million QHPs (Qualified Health Plans) and 1.3 million BHPs (Basic Health Plans), or roughly 22 million total.

CMS's press release states that they won't be posting the next detailed/state-by-state enrollment breakout until January 10th, so aside from a handful of minor SBM updates here and there, there hasn't been much to report on the enrollment front since then...until this:

via CoverME.gov, Maine's state-based ACA exchange:

Plan Selection Snapshot

The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.  

Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2024. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin insurance. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.   

The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2024 is December 15, 2023. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2023 and January 16, 2024 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2024. 

CoverME.gov Activity Through December 26, 2023

BeWell NM

BeWell NM, New Mexico's state-based ACA exchange, has launched a very handy new Enrollment Data portal which includes plenty of info for a data hound like myself to pore over:

First, the top line numbers (as of 12/28/23):

  • Number of enrolled consumers: 52,651
  • Consumers enrolled in Medical coverage: 51,904
  • Consumers enrolled in Dental coverage: 13,149

While dental coverage is also important, standalone dental plans aren't considered Qualified Health Plans (QHPs); it's the "Medical Coverage" which is the key number here.

Also, the total number above may look confusing, but most of the Medical & Dental coverage enrollees overlap:

  • Medical Only: 39,502
  • Dental Only: 747
  • Medical + Dental: 12,402

For comparison, last year BeWell NM reported enrolling just 38,150 people (including auto-renewals) through December 31st.

This breaks out to:

Via Access Health CT's News/Press Releases page:

Stats as of December 29, 2023

Qualified Health Plans (QHP):

  • QHP Enrollment In 2023 Coverage: 122,656
  • 2024 OE Acquisition Summary: 22,678

Medicaid:

  • Completed applications/redeterminations processed through the integrated eligibility system: 42,619

It's my understanding that "Acquisition Summary" refers to CT residents who are brand-new enrollees (never enrolled via the exchange before).

The 122.6K figure includes auto-renewals being piled on top of the new/active renewal tally.

By comparison, last year Access Health CT reported enrolling 103,380 people through December 30th (one extra day since Nov. 1st fell on a Tuesday last year); this also included auto-renewals:

  • 2023: 103,380 in 60 days (1,723/day)
  • 2024: 122,656 in 59 days (2,079/day)

In other words, Connect's ACA exchange has enrolled 20.7% more people per day so far.

via Covered California:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — With a key deadline coming up on Dec. 31, Covered California announced that 161,670 people have signed up for 2024 coverage as of Dec. 23 during this open enrollment, marking an 18 percent increase over the same period last year and the highest during this same period in four years.

Another 1,571,559 Californians have renewed their coverage so far.

That's 1,733,229 QHP selections to date. By comparison, last year the combined new+renewal enrollment in CA was 1,676,616 through 12/24, meaning the 2024 Open Enrollment Period is actually running more like 5.3% higher than last year on a per day basis:

via the NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

  • NJ residents must enroll by Dec. 31 for coverage starting Jan. 1
  • 9 in 10 People Who Enroll Qualify for Savings; Many Pay $10 a Month or Less for Health Coverage

TRENTON — New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Acting Commissioner Justin Zimmerman today announced that more than 330,000 New Jersey residents signed up for a 2024 health insurance plan through the state’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace, Get Covered New Jersey, in the first five weeks of the Open Enrollment Period that started on November 1, 2023. Total signups have increased compared to the same timeframe last year, as residents continue to take advantage of record levels of financial help available from the State of New Jersey and the federal government and more plan options to choose from. 

Open Enrollment for 2024 health insurance ends January 31st, but residents must enroll in a plan by December 31, 2023 for coverage to take effect on January 1, 2024. 

BeWell NM

BeWell NM, New Mexico's state-based ACA exchange, has launched a very handy new Enrollment Data portal which includes plenty of info for a data hound like myself to pore over:

First, the top line numbers (as of 12/21/23):

  • Number of enrolled consumers: 51,772
  • Consumers enrolled in Medical coverage: 51,042
  • Consumers enrolled in Dental coverage: 12,826

While dental coverage is also important, standalone dental plans aren't considered Qualified Health Plans (QHPs); it's the "Medical Coverage" which is the key number here.

Also, the total number above may look confusing, but most of the Medical & Dental coverage enrollees overlap:

  • Medical Only: 38,946
  • Dental Only: 730
  • Medical + Dental: 12,096

For comparison, last year BeWell NM reported enrolling just 37,892 peple (including auto-renewals) through December 24th.

This breaks out to:

Via Access Health CT's News/Press Releases page:

Stats as of December 22, 2023

Qualified Health Plans (QHP):

  • QHP Enrollment In 2023 Coverage: 121,665
  • 2024 OE Acquisition Summary: 21,578

Medicaid:

  • Completed applications/redeterminations processed through the integrated eligibility system: 40,704

It's my understanding that "Acquisition Summary" refers to CT residents who are brand-new enrollees (never enrolled via the exchange before).

The 121.6K figure includes auto-renewals being piled on top of the new/active renewal tally.

By comparison, last year Access Health CT reported enrolling 102,558 people through December 22nd (one extra day since Nov. 1st fell on a Tuesday last year); this also included auto-renewals:

  • 2023: 102,558 in 52 days (1,972/day)
  • 2024: 121,665 in 51 days (2,386/day)

In other words, Connect's ACA exchange has enrolled 21% more people per day so far.

Disclosure: Health Sherpa is a paid sponsor of this site.

I've written about Health Sherpa's stunning ACA enrollment growth several times in the past:

Three key takeaways from the CMS snapshot of the first 18 days of Open Enrollment:

1. HealthSherpa is up nearly 70% year over year, with over 2.4 million people enrolled.
2. The entire Federal Marketplace is up 40% year over year, with almost 4.1 million people covered in the same time frame.
3. We estimate that 2 out of 3 new enrollments in Federal Marketplace states - people newly covered by the ACA - came through HealthSherpa.

  • Policies: 1.79M
  • Covered Lives: 2.43M

At the time, 2.43 million enrollees via Sherpa and their affiliates represented roughly 60% of all HC.gov enrollees for the first 18 days of the 2024 ACA Open Enrollment Period.

Just 3 days ago, I posted a revised 2024 ACA Open Enrollment Period projection, in which I upgraded my prior projection from 18.5 million Americans signing up for either Qualified Health Plans (QHPs) or Basic Health Plans (BHPs) combined nationally to over 19 million doing so. That 18.5M projection was itself a drop from my original projection of 19M QHPs + BHPs combined from a month earlier.

I delved into the various reasons for both my original and revised projections, but the bottom line is that I figured it would end up being somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 - 19.5 million, give or take, likely broken out something like ~18 million QHPs plus another ~1.3 million BHPs in New York & Minnesota only.

I even included 20 million as an outside possibility.

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