It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
Ever since the MAGA Murder Bill (officially H.R. 1, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") was passed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate & House and signed into law by Donald Trump a few days ago, I've seen a growing conventional wisdom taking hold on social media: People keep claiming that either all, "nearly all" or at least "most of" the budget cuts & other gutting of various programs and departments won't actually kick in until after the November 2026 midterms.
Now, don't get me wrong--most of those making these claims are well-intentioned; they're saying this cynically, to underscore how disingenuous Congressional Republicans are by back-loading the pain until the midterms are safely in their rearview mirrors. And, to be fair, much of the damage won't being until well after next November.
Over at The New Republic, Greg Sargent has taken this thinking one step further, noting that by delaying so much of the ugliness of the new law until 2027 or beyond...
Green Mountain Care Board Receives 2026 QHP Rate Requests Amid Rising Health Care Costs
Montpelier, VT – On May 12, 2025, the Green Mountain Care Board (GMCB) received the 2026 individual and small group health insurance premium rate filings from BlueCross and BlueShield of Vermont and MVP Health Plan. The filings will be posted on GMCB’s rate review website. The average rate increases being requested are shown below:
Merged Market Summary for Proposed Rates Effective for 2026
The following tables depict the proposed overall weighted average premium increase and the key assumptions behind premium development for the merged (individual and small employer) market filed by insurance carriers as part of the Massachusetts Division of Insurance rate review process (for rates effective in 2026). This information is subject to change as the rate review process continues.
The Health Care Access Bureau within the Massachusetts Division of Insurance is currently reviewing these assumptions. This review process will culminate in a final decision in August 2025.
There are 711,563 consumers enrolled in merged (individual/small group) market plans (data as of December 2024).
This actually came out a couple of weeks ago but ironically, I've been too swamped analyzing & posting 2026 rate filings for other states to get around to posting it here until now.
Vermont has around ~32,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Combined, that's ~35,000 people, although the official carrier rate filings claim it's more like 36,000 statewide.
Washington State has around ~308,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 73% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~29,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Utah has around ~421,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~17,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Rhode Island has around ~42,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
