The past couple of weeks I was a bit off my game; I underestimated Healthcare.Gov QHP selections by 6% through 12/12, and then underestimated by 9% the following week. The report through the 26th was kind of a mess because a) I was out of town on a mini-vacation and b) it was completely overshadowed by the HHS Dept's first monthly report, which was itself also kind of a mess.

Today, however, I'm happy to say that my projection from last Friday was dead on target through January 2nd:

Kentucky just updated their enrollment stats page for the first time since 12/16:

  • 2014/2015 Open Enrollment stats as of Tuesday 1/6/2015
  • 398,541 unique visitors to the kynect website viewing 13.6 million pages.
  • 215,923 individuals have conducted preliminary screenings.
  • 306,213 calls have been handled by the kynect contact center.
  • 22,352 new accounts have been created.
  • 5,744 people have downloaded the new kynect app.
  • 35,493 new applications have been submitted.
  • 25,720 individuals have enrolled in Medicaid coverage.
  • 75,760 individuals have renewed their enrollment in a qualified health plan.
  • 12,529 individuals have newly enrolled in a qualified health plan.
  • 5,079 individuals have enrolled in dental plans.
  • 5,541 individuals have visited the new kynect store at Fayette Mall in Lexington; 3,215 have completed applications for new coverage.

 

In the post-deadline, post-holiday period, Massachusetts seems to be settling into a pattern: Around 6,000 total eligibility determinations per day during the week, around 2,000/day on weekends. Of those, around 60% of them tend to be Medicaid enrollments, the other 40% for private policies (QHPs, which also include "ConnectorCare" in this case).

Yesterday there were another 6,508 added; 3,760 were immediately enrolled in MassHealth (Medicaid). The other 2,748 were for QHP applicants. As always, assuming at least 50% of those also selected a plan, that should tack another 1,400 to the total, bringing it to around 86,400 or so, while total Medicaid enrollments are now up to over 157K.

I don't have too much to add to this; the quote and video pretty much say it all, and Ian Millhiser did a great writeup:

...The plaintiffs’ premise in King is that Obamacare was never intended to offer credits to people in states with federally-run exchanges. Indeed, by reading one passage of the Affordable Care Act out of context, they claim that the law unambiguously states that only state-run exchanges are allowed to provide tax credits.

But that’s not the conclusion Walker reached after spending a couple of years considering the question. Rather, in his interview with theWall Street Journal, Walker explains that there is no practical difference whatsoever between state-run and federally-run exchanges:

Ahead of the latest weekly report from HC.gov, Gallup reports that:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The uninsured rate among U.S. adults for the fourth quarter of 2014 averaged 12.9%. This is down slightly from 13.4% in the third quarter of 2014 and down significantly from 17.1% a year ago. The uninsured rate has dropped 4.2 percentage points since the Affordable Care Act's requirement for Americans to have health insurance went into effect one year ago.

The uninsured rate declined sharply in the first and second quarters last year as more Americans signed up for health insurance through federal and state exchanges. After the open enrollment period closed in mid-April, the rate leveled off at around 13%. The 12.9% who lacked health insurance in the fourth quarter is the lowest Gallup and Healthways have recorded since beginning to track the measure daily in 2008. The 2015 open enrollment period began in the fourth quarter on Nov. 15 and will close on Feb. 15.

A Roseburg-based nonprofit recently made news when it announced it can't afford to offer health care insurance for its employees and is preparing to pay a federal fine under the Affordable Care Act that's likely to reach six figures.

Adapt provides drug and addiction treatment in three Southern Oregon counties and employs 183 people. However, rising costs have made group health insurance so expensive that the organization has decided to budget for fines of up to $2,000 per employee, according to Susan Jeremiah, the agency's human resources director.

As of Jan. 1, 2015, all employers with more than 100 full-time equivalent employees are required to offer affordable health care insurance or face penalties.

In view of broad reader interest in the story, we asked Portland attorney Iris K. Tilley, a partner with Barran Liebman who advises employers on employee benefits, to answer a few questions about the Roseburg case and the ACA in general.

Taking a look at the QHP Spreadsheet, here's where things stand as of today (or at least as of the latest data provided by the exchanges to date).

It's impossible to know how close most of the HC.gov states (along with California, New York & Hawaii) are to their targets because the renewal/autorenewal data either hasn't been provided yet (CA, NY, HI) or has been provided but hasn't been broken out by state yet (35 of the states on HC.gov).

In most cases, the official government target is based on 30% above last spring's 8 million figure (10.4 million = 30% higher), but in some cases the state exchange itself has set the bar.

In my case, I'm generally assuming around 56% higher than last year, except for Massachusetts which is a special case (see below):

UPDATE 01/07/15: A few more states have updated their numbers so I've updated the table as well:

As always, assuming a minimum of 50% plan selections out of the QHP eligibility determinations, Massachusetts should have tacked on another 1,600 QHPs yesterday, bringing their total up to around 85,000 to date.

Immediate Medicaid enrollments have crossed 153,000.

For the past month or so I've repeatedly noted that Michigan's ACA Medicaid Expansion program (Healthy Michigan) enrollment has exceeded the estimates given as to how many Michiganders are actually eligible for the program (between 477K - 500K depending on the source).

With today's update (also the first of the new year), it looks like the number has finally bumped up against the "ceiling" and is now receding a bit:

Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics

Beneficiaries with Healthy Michigan Plan Coverage: 496,870
(Includes beneficiaries enrolled in health plans and beneficiaries not required to enroll in a health plan.)

*Statistics as of January 5, 2015 
*Updated every Monday at 3 p.m.

This Just In...

Connect for Health Colorado® and Colorado Medicaid Report Enrollment Gains

Posted on Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Curtis Hubbard, curtis@onsightpublicaffairs.com, 303-908-2378 (Connect for Health Colorado)
Marc Williams, Marc.Williams@state.co.us,  303-866-3144  (Colorado Medicaid)

DENVER, CO – Between Nov. 15 and Dec. 31, more than 151,000 Coloradans enrolled in healthcare coverage for 2015, either in Medicaid, Child Health Plan Plus (CHP+) or in private health insurance purchased through the state health insurance Marketplace, according to new data released today by Connect for Health Colorado® and the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing.

 

...The initial six weeks of open enrollment saw a total of 113,864 enrollments in private coverage through Connect for Health Colorado (20,790 people new  to the Marketplace and 93,074 re-enrollments from 2014); 35,981 in Medicaid; and 1,517 in CHP+.  Connect for Health Colorado also enrolled 19,068 individuals in dental plans.

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