For months now, regular readers know I've spent countless hours crunching the numbers in an attempt to figure out the national, weighted average rate increases for individual health insurance market premiums. I've dug into the numbers for just about every state, filling in hard data where I can and making educated guestimates where I couldn't.

For instance, If I found a state where I was able to get a hard weighted average of, say, a 15% increase for 50% of their market, but didn't know what increase the other 50% had been approved for other than it being "less than 10%", I've been assuming around 7% for the missing half, giving a total weighted average of (0.15 x 0.5) + (0.07 x 0.5) = 0.075 + 0.035 = 0.11 = 11.0%.

A couple of weeks ago, my post on Indiana's average 2016 rate increases on the individual market would likely be very close to flat, based on partial enrollment data (i.e., they provided the rate data for every insurance company, but enrollment data for only one of them). The one company they provided enrollment information for, Physicians Health Plan, also happens to have the highest average rate hike, 13.5%.

However, I noted that since a) Physicians only holds around 4% of Indiana's market, and b) several of the other companies were approved for rate decreases (up to -19% for Mdwise Marketplace), it's entirely possible that the state could be looking at an overall rate decrease, or a very low increase at worst. I decided to split the difference and go with a flat zero percent change until further notice.

Today, Louise Norris has come through again:

A Twitter discussion with Andrew Sprung, along with my own prior grumbling about this issue, led me to actually compile the following list of just what "Medicaid" is actually called in each state.

Our discussion was specifically about some seemingly odd data he found in the U.S. Census Bureau's official healthcare coverage report released the other day; he was perplexed as to how come poor people seemed to increase their rate of private healthcare coverage while less-poor people increased their publicly-funded coverage, which seems rather backwards. In any event, one of the reasons noted by myself and "HotWxTakes" is that it's likely that a large number of those responding to the survey may have simply gotten confused as to whether their own coverage falls into the "private" or "public" category...most notably, confusion over "Medicaid". As I noted, "Medicaid" is operated at the state level, not federal, and is run under different names in different states, making some amount of confusion understandable.

As a progressive Democrat, I was thrilled when I heard Donald Trump was entering the Presidential race as a Republican, for obvious reasons.

I've been as guilty as anyone of treating Donald Trump like an entertainer, a joke.

For months, I've described Trump as being "Zaphod Beeblebrox with a mean streak". More recently I revised this to "Part Zaphod Beeblebrox, part Andrew Dice Clay".

The truth is, though, he wasn't being funny when he allegedly sexually assaulted his then-wife Ivana (even if she's since "recanted" her deposition testimony) many years ago.

He wasn't being funny when he went full racist birther on President Obama in 2012.

He wasn't being funny when he called Mexican immigrants "rapists" earlier this year.

I'm cheating a bit here; CT Mirror reporter extraordinaire Arielle Levin Becker has posted the key points from the AccessHealthCT monthly board meeting via Twitter:

Census estimates: CT uninsured rate down to 6.9% in 2014 http://t.co/YUcVaXdVV4

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) September 16, 2015

Current exchange enrollment in private insurance plans: 96,621; down from 110k at end of open enrollment period

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) September 17, 2015

Now, this is very interesting to me. Yes, the 2/22/15 QHP selection totally was around 110K, but compare 96,621 as of (I assume) mid-September against the HHS Dept's Q1 and Q2 reports:

Yes, I suffered through most of the 4 hours-plus of both the "Kiddie Table" and the "Main Event" CNN debates tonight..and unless I missed something, everything I wrote about the first debate on FOX News last month was true of CNN this evening:

In short, from what I can gather, the Affordable Care Act …

… the law which has consumed 99 percent of the Republican Party’s attention for the past 6 years or so …
… the law which has survived over 50 repeal attempts …
… the law which recovered from an unprecedented epic technical meltdown …
… the law which survived a federal government shutdown designed specifically to destroy it …
… the law which survived hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Koch Brothers attack ads …
… the law which survived two major Supreme Court decisions …

… proved to be worth perhaps three minutes of total airtime and discussion out of nearly four hours of Republican Party Presidential debate.

Because FOX News – FOX NEWS – had consciously decided that Obamacare is no longer a top issue to spend time screaming about.

Louise Norris has again done some of the heavy lifting for me over at healthinsurance.org, this time for New Hampshire:

In 2015, New Hampshire’s exchange had five carriers, up from just one in 2014.  There will still be five carriers in 2016, although there’s one swap:  Assurant/Time is exiting the market (nationwide), but Ambetter (offered by Celtic) is joining the exchange in New Hampshire.

...Two carriers in the exchange – Minuteman Health and Community Health Options – have requested double digit rate increases, although they have not yet been approved.  Both carriers are CO-OPs created under the ACA, and both expanded into New Hampshire at the start of 2015, so their claims data for the state is very limited. 

At this point, after well-documented reports from Gallup, the RAND Corporation, the Commonwealth Fund, the Urban Institute, the HHS Dept and the CDC, it seems a little superfluous to keep documenting, but seeing how a certain (ahem) subset of the population continues to claim that the uninsured rate hasn't dropped significantly, it's good to see the U.S. Census Bureau join the crowd:

NOTE: The bold-faced clarifiers are important. For instance, unlike surveys by Gallup, the Kaiser Family Foundation and so forth, this report covers the full calendar year, which can make a big difference. It also cuts off as of the end of 2014, which means that none of the additional coverage added in 2015 is included.

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