This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:
The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that nearly 950,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through plans in the individual market Marketplace have signed up for coverage in 2026, since the start of the Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025. Existing consumers are also returning to the Marketplace to actively renew their coverage, and anyone who does not actively renew will be automatically re-enrolled for 2026. Over 4.8 million existing consumers have already returned to the Marketplace to select a plan for 2026.
Definitions and details on the data in this report are included in the glossary.
As usual, I'll start out with the top line numbers, compared to the same point last year:
On Get Covered Colorado Day, Connect for Health Colorado and state leaders urge customers to compare options and maintain health coverage in 2026.
Denver, Colo.– Today is Get Covered Colorado Day, a day of action designed to encourage as many Coloradans as possible to enroll in 2026 health insurance during Connect for Health Colorado's annual open enrollment period.
“Our message today is simple: we’re here to help every Coloradan get covered,” said Kevin Patterson, chief executive officer of Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s official health insurance marketplace. “Even with premium increases and the possible expiration of federal enhanced Premium Tax Credits, Coloradans are finding plans that fit their needs and their budgets – and they’re not doing it alone. Our experts are ready to guide customers every step of the way. We want Coloradans to know there’s no better time than now to shop, compare options and take advantage of the support we have available.”
There are 43 U.S. House districts where the Republican nominee won by 15 points or less. Of those, one (WA-04) doesn't really count since there were 2 Republicans running in the general election (Washington State has "jungle primaries"). Four others were won by Donald Trump by between 16 - 20 points (AZ-08, CO-04, TX-15 & WI-08).
That leaves 38 GOP-held House seats where the Republican won by 15 pts or less and where either Kamala Harris won, or Donald Trump also won by 15 points or less. The table below breaks these out with both margins, while also listing my estimate of how many residents of each district are enrolled in ACA coverage.
To: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy From: Tony Fabrizio & Bob Ward
Date: July 14, 2025
Re: Expiration of Premium Tax Credits Survey – Targeted Congressional Districts
Our survey of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts shows Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves. Without Congressional action, the tax credit expires this year.
For 12 years now, one of the traditions of ACA Signups has been The Graph: A line graph tracking enrollment in ACA policies over the course of each Open Enrollment Period.
The original Graph from 2013-2014 looked quite different from more recent years, partly because I was attempting to track Medicaid/CHIP enrollment and other coverage categories at the same time, and partly because, frankly, I didn't really know what I was doing at the time.
Over the next few years I modified & improved both my methodology as well as the format, culminating in last year's 2025 Open Enrollment Period Graph, which featured the highest enrollment figures in the ACA's history: ~24.3 million Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollees, plus another ~1.8 million Basic Health Plan (BHP) enrollees in Minnesota, New York & Oregon specifically, for a grand total of just a hair over 26 million people.
For the 2026 Open Enrollment Period, however, actual hard enrollment data has been, shall we say, difficult to come by so far.
I don't know if this is new or not, but it turns out that Covered California--the largest state-based ACA exchange in the country--has an Open Enrollment Dashboard after all!
This means that in addition to two small states regularly reporting Open Enrollment data (Maine and New Mexico), the largest one is as well!
Here's what Covered CA is reporting as of November 29th:
New enrollments: 45,023
Active renewals: 365,879
Passive/Autorenewals: 1,412,526
Total: 1,823,428
As I've noted in both my Maine and New Mexico updates, while I include the passive/auto-renewal number for completeness sake, that number won't really be relevant until after the deadline for January 1st coverage passes (which is December 15th in most states, although not until 12/23 in MA & 12/31 in MD, NV, NJ, NM & RI).4,
via MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange (email only for now):
Minnesota residents affected by the end of Strategic Limited Partners coverage can enroll in new health insurance through MNsure
ST. PAUL, Minn.—MNsure is opening a limited special enrollment period (SEP) for Minnesota residents who purchased insurance through Strategic Limited Partners offsite of the MNsure website. The SEP follows enforcement action by the Minnesota Department of Commerce.
Commerce found that Strategic Limited Partners, an unlicensed company, sold unauthorized and deceptive health coverage to Minnesotans through misleading ads. Under a consent order, Strategic Limited Partners must cease operations by December 31, 2025, notify customers of its exit, repay outstanding claims, and pay a civil penalty.
To protect affected consumers, MNsure is offering this limited SEP:
