Magazine advertisement for the 1946 film Deadline at Dawn Date	March 1946 publication Source	Photoplay for March 1946, page 9 Author	RKO Pictures

Two things are true as of today: 2026 ACA Open Enrollment has ended...and 2026 ACA Open Enrollment is still going on (in some states).

The official Open Enrollment Period is over in 42 states...but residents of the other 8 (plus DC) still have time to enroll for coverage starting February 1st.

USE THE DROPDOWN MENU ABOVE TO PICK A STATE.

9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:

Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:

I should also note that I've started cross-posting key entries at Substack as well.

The Trump Regime has published an update to the official Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data:

October 2025 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In October 2025, 76.8 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
  • 69.5 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.2 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
  • 40.2 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 36.6 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in October 2025 of ~76.8 million dropped about 0.9% from September 2025, or by around 690,000 people.

Earlier today the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance put out a press release urging NJ residents to enroll in ACA coverage ahead of the final enrollment deadline on Saturday, January 31st.

The release also included some enrollment stats (including some pretty depressing ones), as well as a link to Get Covered NJ's Week 9 enrollment report:

As of January 2, 2026, a total of 493,727 residents are signed up for 2026 health coverage with Get Covered New Jersey, including 50,108 new consumers and 203,836 consumers who actively selected a plan. During the 2025 plan year, a total of 481,151 residents were signed up for 2025 health coverage with Get Covered New Jersey, including 70,507 new consumers as of January 2, 2025. The number of new consumers enrolling in coverage has decreased by nearly 30% in plan year 2026.

via the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

TRENTON — As the January 31 final deadline for Open Enrollment approaches, New Jersey residents still in need of health insurance are encouraged to explore plan options for 2026 through Get Covered New Jersey, the State’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace, New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Acting Commissioner Susan Ochs said today, reminding residents that financial help and community-based enrollment assistance remains available.

Open Enrollment is the only time of year residents can enroll in a plan, unless they have a major life event, such as marriage, pregnancy, or a move that qualifies them for a Special Enrollment Period. 

Late this afternoon, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published an updated 2026 Open Enrollment Period snapshot report:

Marketplace 2026 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) Report: National Snapshot 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that 23.0 million consumers have signed up for 2026 individual market health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces since the start of the 2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025.

This includes 15.8 million Marketplace plan selections in the 30 states using the HealthCare.gov platform for the 2026 plan year and 7.2 million plan selections in the 20 states and the District of Columbia with state-based Exchanges (SBEs) that are using their own eligibility and enrollment platforms.[1]

Breaking via Burgess Everett of Semafor:

Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, made his final pitch to Senate Democrats on a plan to revive expired health care subsidies on Wednesday, according to a copy of the legislation obtained by Semafor.

The Ohio Republican is pitching a one-year extension of the enhanced premium tax credits that expired at the end of last year with an option to use Health Savings Accounts after 2026. it would also bar “individuals not lawfully present” in the US from receiving benefits under the bill.

...The proposal also includes a minimum $5 monthly payment on subsidized plans; extends open enrollment until March 31; imposes penalties on fraud; requires audits of states’ compliance with the Hyde amendment barring taxpayer funding on abortions; includes cost-sharing reduction payments; and caps the subsidies at 700% of the federal poverty level.

via the MA Health Connector:

Week of January 25, 2026

Coming out of open enrollment, Health Connector enrollment for 2026 is slightly higher than it was at the end of 2025.

  • Health Connector individual market enrollment for 2026 is 391,744, a 1.6 percent increase compared to total unique enrollees in November and December 2025

Note: Compared to the 389,191 MA residents who selected exchange plans during the 2025 Open Enrollment Period (OEP), however, MA Health Connector enrollment is only up 0.7% year over year.

 via Covered California's Open Enrollment Dashboard, as of January 24th:

  • New enrollments: 203,279
  • Active renewals: 519,242
  • Autorenewals: 1,184,992
  • Total: 1,907,513

As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 1/18/25), Covered CA was reporting:

  • New enrollments: 299,060
  • Active renewals: 440,440
  • Autorenewals: 1,198,514
  • Total: 1,938,014

Overall, that means...

Me, December 26th:

...I'm bringing all of this back up again today because I strongly suspect that the situation is about to reverse itself, with the Trump Administration already preparing to brag about impressive-sounding ACA enrollment numbers for 2026 in spite of the enhanced tax credits expiring less than 60 hours from now...even though the actual negative impact of the expiring tax credits (along with several other administrative policy changes made by CMS this year) likely won't be known for several months after Open Enrollment officially ends in January.

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