For nearly a year now I've been shouting from the rooftops about the eye-popping net premium hikes which millions of ACA enrollees are going to see starting one month from today, assuming the enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits (eAPTC) which have been in place for the past five years are allowed to expire on New Year's Eve.
I've put together 51 bar graphs showing examples of what these net premium increases will look like for various households at different income levels in every state. Since there's so many variables from state to state including different Rating Areas, different levels of carrier participation, different provider networks and different benchmark Silver plans from county to county (and even from zip code to zip code), I decided to use the capital city of each state as my rule of thumb.
For the households, I went with four case studies: A single 50-yr old adult w/no dependents; a 30-yr old single parent with one child; a "nuclear family" (40-yr old couple with two kids age 15 & 12); and a pre-retiree couple (64 yrs old, just shy of Medicare eligibility age).
Whether the data posted since January 20, 2025 is accurate or not, I can't say for certain, but at least they're updating it...and so far, at least, I don't see anything in their monthly reports which is setting off any obvious red flags.
In any event, according to the latest report, as of August 2025:
Total Medicare beneficiaries are up to 69.3 million (up ~86K month over month)
Traditional/FFM Medicare beneficiaries are at 33.79 million (down ~31K m/m)
Medicare Advantage beneficiaries reached 35.49 million (up ~55K m/m)
11.73 million Medicare enrollees (around 16.9% of the total) were "Dual Eligibles"...that is, enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid.
The only number which seems odd is the 375K drop in Dual Eligibles...I'm not sure what to make of that.
I recently joined Ana Marie Cox & Open Mike Eagle on the Past Due Podcast to discuss the how to deal with this year's crazy ACA Open Enrollment Period. Tune in!
Yesterday, Politico reported that the Trump 2/3 White House was planning on rolling out his own counterproposal to Democrats demand that the enhanced ACA tax credits (which are still scheduled to expire just 36 days from now) be extended (preferably permanently, but at the bare minimum by at least a few years).
According to the Politico story, the Trump proposal supposedly included the following provisions:
Via Politico this morning, a mixed bag of good & bad news on the enhanced ACA tax credit saga today:
The White House expects to soon unveil a health policy framework that includes a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies due to expire at the end of next month and new limits on eligibility, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss the unannounced plans.
...The White House plan is expected to include new income caps for enrollees to qualify for the ACA tax credits as well as minimum premium payments, according to the two people with direct knowledge of the proposal.
The planned eligibility cap would limit the subsidies to individuals with income up to 700 percent of the federal poverty line — aligning with what a bipartisan group of senators have been discussing separately, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to share knowledge of the negotiations.
At a bare, bare minimum, do not settle for a one- or two-year extension of the eAPTCs.
Kicking this particular can down the road for only one or two years would not only be an absolute gift to Republicans politically (since it would push the pain out until just past the midterms, which is of course the only reason why any Republicans are willing to discuss doing so at all), but it would also mean we'd be right back here with the exact same scary headlines a year or two from now, with 24 million people never knowing whether their health insurance premiums are going to skyrocket from year to year.
Nothing is worse for the insurance industry than uncertainty, and anytime they're uncertain about anything you can be sure they'll jack up rates as a "just in case" cushion.
The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.
Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.
The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026.
In my post about the U.S. Senate vote to end the federal government shutdown last week, I concluded that:
I'll have a lot more to say about this "HSAs for All" silliness which Trump & Sen. Cassidy are suddenly pitching, but in the meantime, whether you think 8 of them voting for the CR Sunday night was the right thing to do or not, once they did so, shifting the national dialogue back to healthcare policy (where Dems are strongest and Republicans are weakest) and the Epstein Files is probably the best outcome Democrats could've realistically hoped for from that point forward.
Almost every day since the, various Republican House & Senate members have underscored my point:
