BREAKING: House passes clean 3-yr extension of enhanced ACA tax credits

Thu, 01/08/2026 - 5:40pm

As expected, just moments ago the House of Representatives voted to extend the enhanced ACA tax credits for another 3 years, through the end of 2028, with no strings attached...with a whopping 17 House Republicans crossing over to vote for it.

This is actually slightly higher than my prediction yesterday that up to 16 total House Republicans would vote for it, I should note!

I'm going to assume it will end up narrowly passing the House; it would be pretty stupid for those four to sign the discharge petition without actually voting for the bill, and Republicans are currently down 2 members anyway with Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) having resigned and Doug LaMalfa (CA) dying yesterday morning.

My guess is that up to a dozen of the other vulnerable GOP House members will also vote for the bill once it breaks a simple majority, but we'll see.

Technically my prediction wasn't quite that accurate in a different way, however; I assumed that all 16 (17) would be among those representing highly vulnerable districts. Instead, however, it included several unexpected names representing pretty safe seats; here's the list including their 2024 winning margin:

CA-22 David Valadao (6.8%)
CO-03 Jeff Hurd (5.0%)
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar (20.8%)
IA-03 Zach Nunn (3.8%)
NJ-07 Tom Kean (5.4%)
NY-01 Nick LaLota (10.4%)
NY-02 Andrew Garbarino (19.5%)
NY-17 Mike Lawler (6.3%)
OH-07 Max Miller (15.0%)
OH-14 David Joyce (26.8%)
OH-15 Mike Carey (12.9%)
PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick (12.8%)
PA-07 Ryan Mackenzie (1.0%)
PA-08 Rob Bresnahan (1.6%)
TX-15 Monica De La Cruz (14.2%)
VA-01 Rob Wittman (12.8%)
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden (2.7%)

Actually, FL-27 Salazar is more understandable, as a whopping 40% of the entire population of her district was enrolled in ACA coverage last year. 20% of TX-15 De La Cruz's district was as well, but in OH-14 it was only around 5.8% and in NY-02 only about 1.0% of the population had ACA exchange coverage last year (granted, this is because a much larger portion were enrolled in the ACA-funded Essential Plan instead).

In any event, the final vote was 230 YEAs to 196 NAYs, with 5 Republicans not voting at all.

I want to take a moment to note that after spending 15 YEARS doing everything in their power to repeal the ACA (including voting to do so over 60 times), 17 House Republicans just voted to significantly strengthen the law!

So...now what?

Well, as I noted yesterday, now the ball gets kicked back over to the Senate, where a clean extension is virtually certain to die...but where the pressure from such a strong rejection of Speaker Johnson & MAGA leadership is already being felt by GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune to pass some sort of extension of the enhanced subsidies.

A bipartisan group of Senators has been hobbling together a bill which supposedly includes the following provisions, which I delved into in more detail already:

2 year extension (House version is 3 years)
Raising the "Subsidy Cliff" from 400% FPL to 700% (the House version doesn't include any cap)
A $5/month minimum premium no matter what
Enrollee option to take enhanced portion of subsidies as Health Savings Account funds instead of premium tax credits
"Possible" funding of Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) subsidies starting in 2027 (which would kill Silver Loading)
More draconian abortion restriction language ("Hyde Amendment")

There have been some more developments on this today...maybe:

Sarah Ferris @sarahnferris

News - GOP senators privately expressed willingness to sidestep abortion fight in ACA compromise bill during today’s meeting, per sources They told Dems they are OK keeping Hyde as is - bucking House R leaders and abortion groups Big deal - this has been holding up talks

GOP senators also urged House Rs to drive up the yes votes on today’s big ACA vote in the House to fuel momentum

Some Dems are more pessimistic tho. They say R senators have made the same pledge before - just weeks earlier - to sidestep Hyde, only to reverse course after pressure from anti-abortion groups, per a Dem source

Laura Weiss @LauraEWeiss16

...That bill also includes crackdown on PBMs. There was debate in the meeting about whether to include PBMs in Senate bill out of concern it could complicate support. But some House Dems in the room said it would actually help court additional votes

HSAs also part of Senate plan, though there could still be tweaks to those provisions

Following the meeting, sources involved in talks maintain Hyde dispute is their only real obstacle to a deal

As for Trump...well...you know...

Two days ago:

President Trump on Tuesday urged House Republicans to be "flexible" on the Hyde Amendment — the 50-year-old policy barring federal funding for most abortions — as GOP leaders search for a deal to lower health insurance costs before the midterms.

The big picture: Trump's comments signal a notable softening on a long-held Republican policy as party leaders worry about voter backlash over rising Affordable Care Act premiums during an election year.

Today: