As anyone not under a rock for the past few months knows by now, the improved federal Affordable Care Act tax credits which were put into place by President Biden and Congressional Democrats starting in 2021 are currently scheduled to expire at the end of December, just 2 1/2 months from now.

If this happens, the consequences for ~24 million Americans will be devastating, with average health insurance premiums more than doubling and millions being priced completely out of the insurance market altogether.

On top of this, the Trump Regime has also made administrative regulatory changes to how the ACA is structured resulting in the remaining tax credit formula becoming even less generous yet, while also eliminating eligibility for either financial assistance or even ACA enrollment whatsoever to many other Americans.

Originally posted 8/7/25

SCROLL DOWN FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

Overall preliminary rate changes via federal Rate Review database.

Antidote Health Plan of AZ:

(Unfortunately, no rate justification summary is available, and the full actuarial memo is heavily redacted. Policy enrollees are estimated based on marketwide estimated enrollment; see below.)

Banner/Aetna CVS:

(Dropping out of the individual market for 2026.)

I am writing to notify the Department that Banner Health and Aetna Health Plan Inc. (“Banner | Aetna”) will exit the individual health insurance market effective December 31, 2025. This notification is sent pursuant to Department guidance and Arizona statute 20-1380(D)(1). We made this decision after careful consideration and after evaluating the evolution of business at Banner | Aetna. The details of our individual market exit include the following:

Originally posted 7/18/25

I still have the preliminary 2026 rate filings to analyze for about 10 more states, but I'm taking a break to go back and revisit ARKANSAS.

Back on July 18th, I posted my original analysis of ACA-compliant individual & small group market filings for Arkansas insurance carriers. At the time, I found that the weighted average increases being requested for individual market policies averaged a disturbingly high 26.2%. Here's what the breakout looked like:

This is pretty bad, of course, especially when paired with the expiration of the improved IRA financial subsidies as well as the modified PAPI formula, which is what determines the Applicable Percentage Table.

Originally posted 12/23/24

Arkansas has around 166,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 92% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~11,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 5.7% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Arkansas, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 477,000 statewide.

For many years, the District of Columbia has had among the most generous Medicaid income eligibility thresholds in the country, with children and pregnant women in households earning up to 324% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) being eligible as well as parents earning up to 216% FPL and childless adults earning up to 210% FPL*. As a result, nearly 37% of DC's total population is enrolled in Medicaid.

Originally posted 6/04/25

via the Oregon Division of Financial Regulation:

Oregonians continue to have at least five health insurance companies to choose from in every Oregon county as companies file 2026 health insurance rate requests for individual and small group markets

• In-depth rate review process just beginning, opportunities for public review and input remain through June 20

June 2, 2025

Oregon health insurers have submitted proposed 2026 rates for individual and small group plans, launching a months-long review process that includes public input and meetings.

Five insurers will again offer plans statewide (Moda, Bridgespan, PacificSource, Providence, and Regence), and Kaiser is offering insurance in 11 counties, giving six options to choose from in various areas around the state. 

(sigh) OK, I'm not sure if we've reached the 5th or 6th chapter in this ongoing saga, but I hope it's the last one.

When we last left our story (just 5 days ago), I noted that both the current number of enrollees as well as the average rate increases for each of the carriers on the Arkansas individual market had jumped all over the place at least 4 times, and that while it's common for these numbers to change a bit here and there throughout the multi-month filing process, both the degree of some of the changes as well as the circumstances surrounding them were often far beyond what I've typically seen in over a decade of tracking this stuff:

Given all the confusing numbers I've posted before, I've boiled it all down to the simplified tables below which illustrate the mess:

Originally posted 1/01/25

8/31/25: SEE IMPORTANT UPDATE BELOW!

10/08/25: SEE 2ND IMPORTANT UPDATE BELOW!

New Mexico has around ~70,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 85% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~8,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 78,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 70,000 statewide.

I already wrote about this over a month ago but it didn't get the attention it deserved at the time, and given that we're much closer to the actual 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period starting and that there's been another important development since then, I figured I should post an updated entry about it.

In late August, the New Mexico Office of Superintendent of Insurance (OSI) dropped the bad news:

Santa Fe, NM – The New Mexico Office of the Superintendent of Insurance (OSI) has approved 2026 rates for individual market Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans sold on and off BeWell, the New Mexico Health Insurance Marketplace, with an average increase of 35.7%. Today, 75,000 New Mexicans buy health insurance through BeWell and 88% of enrollees qualify for federal and state premium assistance.

However, there was an extremely important caveat:

I already mentioned this in my post from a few days ago, but I suspect it was lost in the larger scope of the entry, so I'm calling attention it more explicitly here:

With the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period officially starting on November 1st, and with millions of ACA enrollees being bombarded with scary letters from their insurance carriers and headlines warning of massive premium hikes, residents of six states* (as of this writing) can already enter their own household information to find out how much their net health insurance premiums are going to increase starting January 1st, 2026:

*It was five states on Sunday; since then Maryland has also gone live, and other states may have joined them by the time you read this. See here for important info about MD's new state-based financial subsidy program.