How much more will VERMONT residents pay if the improved #ACA subsidies aren't extended?

IMPORTANT: See here for explanation & methodology.

UPDATE 5/14/25: I've updated the table & graph below to reflect the 17.4% average rate increase which Vermont insurance carriers are requesting in 2026, 6.8 points of which is due specifically to them expecting IRA subsidies to expire.

This update assumes the 17.4% avg. requested rate hikes are approved as is and that they apply to the benchmark Silver plan.

It's important to understand that Vermont's ACA market is different from most other states in two different ways:

• First, like about a dozen other states, VT has their own supplemental state-based subsidies on top of the federal APTC assistance. The Vermont Premium Assistance program reduces net premiums by a further 1.5% of household income for households earning up to 300% FPL.

• Second, unlike every other state except New York, Vermont has no age band, which means that the full-price premium is the same for every enrollee regardless of their age. This means that unlike most states where the 64-yr old couple gets hit with the highest unsubsidized premiums, in Vermont's case it's the nuclear family which sees the highest premiums (4 people vs. 1 or 2).

In Vermont, If the IRA subsidies go away, starting in 2026...(not including VT Assistance):

• A single 50-yr old earning $30,000/yr would see his premiums jump from $49/month to $142/month...2.9x as much

• A single parent earning $40,000/year would go from paying $61/month to $185/month...3x as much

• A family of four earning $130,000/year would have to pay NEARLY $40,000 MORE PER YEAR for the same coverage...or 4.6 TIMES AS MUCH as they're paying this year!

• A 64-yr old couple earning $90,000/yr would have to shell out OVER $28,000 MORE PER YEAR for the same coverage...or 4.7 TIMES AS MUCH as they're paying this year.

Vermont currently has nearly ~33,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, plus another ~64,000 enrolled in Medicaid via ACA expansion. Combined, that's 15% of their entire population at risk of losing healthcare coverage.