Originally posted 12/04/24

Massachusetts has around 390,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 83% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~27,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~417,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to perhaps ~400,000.

Originally posted 12/03/24

Minnesota has around 151,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 61% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~62,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~213,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 200,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/14/24

Kentucky has around 97,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,800 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 104,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 97,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/09/24

Indiana has around 359,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 90% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,700 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees

Combined, that's 5.3% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Indiana, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 341,000 statewide.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has posted an official update to the enrollment data for ACA Medicaid expansion through December 2024.

According to the new report, total enrollment from September through December actually increased by just a hair (5,377) and still remained at over 20.7 million nationally, so it doesn't look like the Trump Admin has started cooking these particular books, at least not yet.

I've been able to cobble together more recent ACA expansion enrollment for about half of the 40 states (+DC) which participate in the program:

Originally posted 12/31/24

Hawaii has around 26,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 83% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~1,700 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.8% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Hawaii, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 24,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/10/2025

Alabama has around 477,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 96% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~33,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 9.9% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Alabama, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 477,000 statewide.

It was just a couple of weeks ago that the official (if preliminary) 2026 ACA individual market rate filings for Wyoming insurance carriers went live on the federal rate review website.

I published a writeup about these just 3 days ago; unlike some states, Wyoming was pretty easy to break out as they only have three carriers on the indy market, all of which also made their current enrollment data easy to find.

The landscape isn't pretty: BCBS is seeking average rate increases of 20.7%; UHC wants 29.1%, and Mountain Health Co-Op, which has around 9,600 enrollees, was asking for a whopping 32% average premium hike.

Keep in mind that Wyoming already has among the most expensive individual market policies in the country, with premiums averaging over $1,000/month.

Originally posted 12/07/24

Arizona has around 423,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~8,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 5.6% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Arizona, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 477,000 statewide.

via the NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

Open Enrollment Period through Get Covered New Jersey Begins November 1, 2025

TRENTON — New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Justin Zimmerman today announced a total of $5 million in available grant funds for community organizations to apply to serve as state-certified Navigators for the Get Covered New Jersey Open Enrollment Period and throughout 2026. Navigators offer free, unbiased, community-based education and assistance to consumers seeking to enroll in health insurance through Get Covered New Jersey, the State’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace.