COVID-19

A couple of weeks ago I ran an updated analysis which attempted to estimate a grim but vitally important number: Just how many Trump voters vs. Biden voters have become fatal victims of the GOP/FOX News coordinated anti-vaxx/anti-mask campaign to date, and what sort of impact might this end up having on the midterm elections this November?

I'm not going to attempt to justify this cynical bean counting anymore...the evidence is now overwhelming that Republican leadership, in coordination with outlets like FOX News and other right-wing outlets, made a conscious decision in spring 2021 to push hard against Americans getting vaccinated against COVID-19.

Over 600,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 since the 2020 election, but assuming the death rate is similar among adults who voted and those who didn't, less than 2/3 of those actually voted in the 2020 general election. Besides children under 18 and undocumented immigrants, the sad reality is that there are tens of millions of American adults who are eligible to vote but either aren't registered or are registered but don't cast a ballot every election cycle.

COVID

For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).

This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.

Now that we're a full six weeks into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.

The "start" of the Delta Wave was easy to lock in for my purposes; both cases and deaths from COVID had dropped off dramatically right up until around the end of June. The Delta Wave started showing up in the daily deaths pretty quickly as July started. The transition from the Delta to Omicron was a lot fuzzier, but I've decided to go with December 15th as my transition point.

As always, here's my methodology:

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
    • NEW: Scroll down to also see 3rd/Booster shots, with some important caveats of its own.
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
  • For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
    • For Vermont and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database
    • For Virginia, I've started using the official state health department dashboard due to some weirdness in the COVID Act Now data for VA. Unfortunately the VA Health Dept. dashboard doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort, so I'll only be updating Virginia once a month.
CMS Logo

This is great news, and there's also a small but important wording choice which should be noted:

CMS Commits Over $49 Million to Reduce Uninsured Rate Among Children and Boost Medicaid Enrollment Among Parents, Pregnant People

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) committed a record $49.4 million to fund organizations that can connect more eligible children, parents, and pregnant individuals to health care coverage through Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Awardees—including state/local governments, tribal organizations, federal health safety net organizations, non-profits, schools, and others—will receive up to $1.5 million each for a three-year period to reduce the number of uninsured children by advancing Medicaid/CHIP enrollment and retention.

ASPE Logo

In the midst of all the data & stats from this morning's CMS report touting the most successful ACA Open Enrollment Period ever, I almost forgot another important related report which the Biden Administration is promoting as well:

This week, HHS’s office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) is also releasing a report analyzing new survey data that showed the uninsured rate fell in 2021 after the American Rescue Plan and outreach efforts took effect. According to the report, the uninsured rate for U.S. population was 8.9% for the third quarter of 2021 (July – September 2021), down from 10.3% for the last quarter of 2020 – corresponding to roughly 4.6 million more people with coverage over that time period. Coverage gains occurred among both children and working age adults, with the largest coverage gains for those with incomes under 200% of the poverty level (roughly $27,000 for a single adult or $56,000 for a family of four).

ACA Signups Logo

January 10th was the last time that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a detailed 2022 Open Enrollment Snapshot report which broke out 2022 ACA enrollment across every state.

As of 1/10/22, it had already reached an all-time record of nearly 14.9 million people (13.8 million via Qualified Health Plans, or QHPs, and another million or so who have enrolled in Basic Health Plans (BHPs) in Minnesota and New York specifically).

A few days later, CMS issued another update just ahead of the official January 15th OEP deadline (in most states) which updated the top line QHP tally to over 14.2 million. They broke this out by "over 10 million" enrollees on the federal exchange (HealthCare.Gov), plus another 4.2 million or more in the 18 states which operate their own ACA exchanges.

Tack on the 1.0M BHPs and that's at least 15.2 million nationally.

Maryland Health Connection

via Maryland Health Connection:

EASY ENROLLMENT PROGRAM OFFERS HEALTH COVERAGE, FINANCIAL HELP TO MARYLANDERS WHO CHECK BOX ON TAXES

  • AFTER OPEN ENROLLMENT, STATE TAX FILERS WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY TO ENROLL THROUGH JULY 15

BALTIMORE, MD – For the third year, the Easy Enrollment Program, a partnership between the Office of the Comptroller of Maryland and Maryland Health Connection, will allow uninsured Marylanders to enroll in health insurance through July 15. The date coincides with the extended state income tax filing and payment deadline.

This innovative program allows Marylanders to check a box on their state tax return to share information with Maryland Health Connection. Within a week, the tax filer can expect a letter in the mail. This unlocks a 35-day enrollment window, starting from the date on the letter.

 

via MNsure:

The mother of a Minneapolis man who died because he could not afford his Type 1 diabetes medication is asking Minnesotans with an urgent need for insulin to seek assistance through a state program that she helped champion.

In a new video called the “Alec Smith Story,” Nicole Smith-Holt urges anyone struggling to afford their insulin to sign up for the Minnesota Insulin Safety Net Program. Her son Alec died in 2017 at the age of 26 from ketoacidosis after rationing his insulin to make it last longer.

“I encourage anyone who has diabetes and struggling to afford the medication to keep advocating for yourself,’” Smith-Holt said. “I don’t want someone in an emergency like Alec was to be turned away at the pharmacy or start rationing their insulin. You have options.”

Connect for Health Colorado Logo

via Connect for Health Colorado:

Nearly 200,000 Coloradans Signed Up for Health Insurance During Annual Enrollment Period

  • Special enrollment opportunities and enrollment assistance still available

DENVER – Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s official health insurance marketplace, reports that 198,412 Coloradans signed up for a health insurance plan by the end of the Open Enrollment Period. This is an increase of more than 18,000 enrollments, or 10 percent, above last year’s end of Open Enrollment total, and is the highest end of Open Enrollment total since Connect for Health Colorado opened for business in 2013.

In fact, 2022 OEP enrollment is up 10.5% y/y in Colorado.

Three out of four customers who signed up for a plan qualified for health insurance savings via tax credits. Thanks to the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, an individual can save an average of 52 percent on their monthly premium after financial help is applied.

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