Charles Gaba's blog

A few days ago I noted that MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange, has skyrocketed from last place to first in terms of achieving my personal OE4 enrollment targets, having enrolled 103,578 people in Qualified Health Plans (QHPs), plus another 19,960 in MinnesotaCare (MN's BHP program) and 65,164 in Medicaid.

Yestrerday they updated their numbers once again:

That's a further increase of 3,009 Minnesotans in QHPs in the past week or so. MN has already blown past my original projection (86K) and has reached 92% of my revised target (116K).

As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.

My standard methodology applies:

As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.

My standard methodology applies:

A few days ago I had the honor of joining healthcare reporter Jonathan Cohn and healthcare patient advocate Amy Lynn Smith as a guest on The Sit & Spin Room, a podcast presented by Michigan's best political website, Eclectablog, featuring hosts Chris Savage and the mysterious @LOLGOP.

Cohn is the guest for the first half-hour, while Smith and I join in for the remaining hour of the show.

Check it out!

As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.

My standard methodology applies:

This isn't a particularly dramatic update given that CMS released their "mid-season" report yesterday, which already updated Washington's tally from 180K thru 12/20 to 194K as of 12/24...but an update's an update:

The Washington Health Benefit Exchange today announced that more than 200,000 customers have selected 2017 health and dental coverage through Washington Healthplanfinder since the open enrollment period began on Nov. 1 – an increase of almost 14 percent over the same point last year.

Hmmmm...the numbers look good, but that "...and dental" caveat is a bit troubling. I've asked for clarification; it's possible that the "dental" reference simply refers to the fact that some Qualified Health Plans also include dental coverage, as opposed to referring to standalone dental plans, which shouldn't be counted as QHPs.

As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.

My standard methodology applies:

Assuming 37,000 people enroll in private exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 25,500 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 169,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of over 195,000 West Virginians kicked to the curb.

As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:

OK, with this morning's CMS/ASPE "mid-season report" being released, I figured this would be a good time to take a look at where things stand on both a state-by-state and national level. All of the state enrollment numbers should be accurate with the possible exception of California; there's a potential discrepancy of around 93,000 enrollees which I'm still trying to clarify. The tables/graph below all assume that those disputed 93K are supposed to be included.

Here's my original projections for each state, sorted in order based on what percent of my personal target each state has reached. As you can see, Minnesota, Hawaii, Massachusetts and South Dakota have already broken 100%, with Utah, Vermont, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon and (possibly) California all over the 90% mark. Any state over 90% at this point should hit my targets by the end of January.

For the past couple of weeks I've been compiling the county-level data across various states for just how many people are at risk of losing healthcare coverage if the Republican Party actually does follow through with repealing the Affordable Care Act. The main numbers are the subsidized QHP enrollees and the Medicaid Expansion enrollees.

What people really want, though, given the politics of the situation, are these numbers by Congressional District. Unfortunately, I can't provide that, which is why I'm going with County level data for now.

HOWEVER, this morning, CMS provided a major tool for getting these numbers at the CD level: ZIP CODE breakout of the number of QHP selections through 12/24 for the 39 states on the federal exchange.

There's some major caveats here, of course:

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