Charles Gaba's blog

Last week there was much hand-wringing among many (including myself) about the potential fallout if the House Republicans do end up eventually winning House v. Burwell.

Today, Nicholas Bagley, who's been my guide throughout the weird convolutions of this case (the impact would actually more complicated than that of last year's King v. Burwell if the GOP had won that case) clarifies a few points and helps walk folks (including myself) back from the edge:

The HHS and Urban studies rest on the assumption that insurers will eat the costs of eliminating the cost-sharing reductions. As I’ve explained before, though, that’s not a realistic assumption.

Amazing, but utterly predictable:

Despite bitter resistance in Oklahoma for years to President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, Republican leaders in this conservative state are now confronting something that alarms them even more: a huge $1.3 billion hole in the budget that threatens to do widespread damage to the state's health care system.

So, in what would be the grandest about-face among rightward leaning states, Oklahoma is now moving toward a plan to expand its Medicaid program to bring in billions of federal dollars from Obama's new health care system.

What's more, GOP leaders are considering a tax hike to cover the state's share of the costs.

"We're to the point where the provider rates are going to be cut so much that providers won't be able to survive, particularly the nursing homes," said Republican state Rep. Doug Cox, referring to possible cuts in state funds for indigent care that could cause some hospitals and nursing homes to close.

A few days ago, I noted that Premera Blue Cross was asking for a 19.6% average rate hike for ACA-compliant individual policies in Washington State, while also pulling out of several WA counties entirely.

Today, the Washington Insurance Commissioner issued a press release with the full, weighted average rate hike requests for the individual market (including both on and off-exchange carriers):

13 health insurers file 154 plans for 2017 - 13.5 average requested rate change • May 16, 2016

OLYMPIA, Wash.– Thirteen health insurers have filed 154 individual health plans for 2017 both inside and outside of the Exchange, Washington Healthplanfinder. The average requested rate change based on enrollment is 13.5 percent.

Last year, Maryland's individual market saw rate hike requests average roughly 20% overall. For 2017, it doesn't look quite as bad on a percentage basis (although obviously the actual dollar increase is still on top of last year's):

Health insurers seek rate increases in Maryland as United Healthcare quits market

...United Healthcare, the nation's largest insurer but a bit player in Maryland, was not included on a list released Friday by state regulators of companies seeking rate increases for 2017.

Insurance Commissioner Al Redmer confirmed that the company was leaving the exchange created under the Affordable Care Act, as it has in most states across the country. It will continue to offer plans in the small-business market.

The dominant carrier on the individual market in Iowa is Wellmark BCBS, which had 137,000 enrollees (something like 75% of all the market) last year.

However, there were two important caveats to that: First, Wellmark isn't currently participating on the ACA exchange; all of those enrollees were off-exchange only. Secondly, at the time I had no idea how many of them were ACA-compliant and how many were "grandfathered" or "transitional" policies, which aren't ACA compliant and which, more significantly, aren't part of the same risk pool.

Well, Wellmark just announced that they will finally be jumping onto HealthCare.Gov for 2017. This is great news, not just because they're the dominant carrier in the state but also because it'll help fill the hole created by UnitedHealthcare dropping out.

HOWEVER, I suspect that today's news may also help explain their reasoning (I'll get to that later):

As with California, there's no actual individual carrier rate/market share breakdown available, but the source is the DOI itself, so I'm assuming "average" means weighted average:

Fifteen health insurers want an average 17.7 percent increase in premiums for Affordable Care Act individual plans, Florida officials said Thursday — higher than last year’s approved average of less than 10 percent.

...In Florida, 15 companies also asked for an average 9.6 percent increase for small group plans, said Amy Bogner, spokeswoman for the state’s Office of Insurance Regulation.

The companies were not identified individually because they claimed trade secrecy, she said.

It sounds like BCBS of Florida is seeking around 9.8 - 11.6% hikes for the individual market, and 5.2 - 8.7% hikes for the small group market:

NOTE: SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF ENTRY FOR UPDATES!

Regular readers know that I spent countless hours last summer tracking down the requested average 2016 rate change filing forms for every single state in the country, and then compiling them into my best guesstimate about the overall, weighted average rate changes for the individual policy market in each state and nationally.

In the end, I came up with a national projected weighted average increase of 12-13%, although I also made sure to note that I expected the effective average to only be around 9% after the dust settled...due to people shopping around.

As it happens, I turned out to be pretty much dead on target: The "presumptive" average (ie, assuming every single enrollee stayed with the same policy whenever possible) ended up being 11.6% nationally, while the effective average ended up being 8%.

The subject of transgender rights has been in the news a lot lately, particularly due to idiotic "bathroom discrimination" laws like the one recently passed in North Carolina.

As BuzzFeed notes today:

Just hours after the Obama administration on Friday stood up for transgender students, it took unprecedented steps to protect transgender patients.

Transgender people must be provided transition-related services and cannot be denied healthcare by providers or professionals who receive federal funding, according to a final rule announced Friday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The rule specifically bans the denial of coverage or healthcare itself on the basis of gender identity.

The rule, which comprises several regulations, was formed under Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act, which includes first-of-its-kind civil rights protections in healthcare for several classes of people — including a ban on discrimination on the basis of sex.

Thanks to JJGomez127 for the heads up:

Kansas health insurance marketplace may gain company offerings for 2017

TOPEKA, KS — Ken Selzer, CPA, Kansas Commissioner of Insurance, said today that Kansas health insurance consumers may have additional company options for coverage in the federallyrun marketplace for 2017.

“Health insurance options filed now for the individual market show that competition will likely continue for Kansans’ health insurance policies,” Commissioner Selzer said.

Filings with the Kansas Insurance Department as of May 2 show two additional carriers may participate in the marketplace. Medica, a non-profit, Minnesota-based company, and Coventry Health and Life are companies that have filed for the 2017 open enrollment period.

Medica Insurance Company is set to offer a number of plans, and Coventry is proposing Exclusive Provider Organization (EPO) Network plans. Both companies have filed to offer plans off the federally-facilitated marketplace as well.

This year, Washington State has a total of 16 carriers offering policies on the individual market: 13 via the ACA exchange, plus another 3 selling off-exchange only (one of them, Regence Blue Shield, seems to be selling both on and off exchange, but I might be misunderstanding something there):

2016 insurers with plans approved to be certified by the Exchange, Wahealthplanfinder:

  • Bridgespan Health Company
  • Columbia United Providers
  • Coordinated Care Corporation
  • Community Health Plan of Washington
  • Group Health Cooperative
  • Health Alliance Northwest Health Plan, Inc.
  • Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Northwest
  • LifeWise Health Plan of Washington
  • Moda Health Plan, Inc.
  • Molina Healthcare of Washington, Inc.
  • Premera Blue Cross
  • Regence BlueShield
  • United Healthcare of Washington, Inc.

Off-exchange only (?):

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