COVID19

Back in late January, when it became clear that the Biden Administration was planning on announcing some sort of "no excuse needed" COVID Special Enrollment Period for the federal ACA exchange, I did a little back-of-the-envelope math to try and get an idea of how many additional people might enroll via HealthCare.Gov than you'd normally see via "standard" Special Enrollment Periods.

At the time, I concluded that for a 60-day SEP of this nature (that is, one completely open to all comers regardless of whether they had a Qualifying Life Experience (QLE)or not), you might be looking at perhaps an extra 400,000 people. selecting plans during that time period. This would be on top of the 4,200/day who enrolled thru HC.gov between the end of Open Enrollment and the end of May via SEPs over the past couple of years, which would be roughly 254,000 for a 60-day period.

A picture is worth 1,000 words and all that.

I've done my best to label every state/territory, which obviously isn't easy to do for most of them given how tangled it gets in the middle. For cases per capita, the most obvious point is that New York and New Jersey, which towered over every other state last spring, are now dwarfed by North & South Dakota, although things are pretty horrible nearly everywhere now.

1 out of every 8 residents of North & South Dakota's entire populations have tested positive for COVID-19 over the past year.

Rhode Island is up to over 1 out of every 9 residents.

Utah, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Alabama and South Carolina are up to 1 out of every 10 residents.

42 states have seen at least 1 out of every 15 residents test positive.

EVERY state except Washington, Oregon, Maine, Vermont & Hawaii, along with the territories of Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa have now surpassed 1 out of every 20 residents having tested positive.

As I did when Access Health CT released their 2021 OEP report, there's so much data here I'm not gonna bother doing any analysis in this entry; I'll just post the most relevant slides for now.

Note: Pennie refers to it as their 2020 annual report, but the enrollment data refers to the 2021 Open Enrollment Period.

OK, Covered California hasn't actually released an official press release or Open Enrollment Report, but I have acquired a single slide which was delivered at a university presentation by Covered CA head Peter Lee the other day. It doesn't provide tons of detail but give the most important toplines (the way the graph breaks out the numbers is a little confusing but I figured it out:

  • Total QHP selections from 11/01/20 - 1/31/21: 1.63 million, a record high for the state

This is a 5.9% increase year over year from the 2020 OEP's 1.54 million (it says 1.57 million on the graph but the official CMS tally is 1,538,819).

Aside from Health Sherpa's announcement the other day that they enrolled over 3x as many people in ACA exchange plans in the first week of the COVID Special Enrollment Period than they normally would via traditional SEPs during the same time period, there's been no hard COVID SEP data released...until now. Via the Washington HealthPlan Finder:

Special Enrollment Period for Health Coverage Now Available

  • Currently uninsured or those seeking new coverage can enroll today on Washington HealthplanfinderOLYMPIA, Wash.

Washington Healthplanfinder is now offering a special enrollment period for Washingtonians who are currently uninsured or seeking new coverage. This special enrollment period, in response to the current public health emergency, opened Feb. 15 and runs for 90 days, ending May 15, 2021.

Disclosure: Health Sherpa is a paid sponsor of this site.

Back in January, before the ongoing COVID Enrollment Period was officially announced, I ran some back-of-the-envelope math to try and project just how many additional ACA exchange enrollees might sign up nationally due to the addition of a "no questions asked" Special Enrollment Period (SEP) being formally launched across every state, as opposed to the patchwork of COVID SEPs we saw across a dozen states last spring/summer.

I extrapolated those numbers out nationally and estimated that total on-exchange enrollment might increase by perhaps 400,000 more people thanks to a 60-day COVID SEP...that is, 400K more than the "normal" number who typically enroll during that same time period for traditional SEP reasons (losing employer coverage, turning 26, getting married/divorced, moving, giving birth/adopting, etc).

A picture is worth 1,000 words and all that.

I've done my best to label every state/territory, which obviously isn't easy to do for most of them given how tangled it gets in the middle. For cases per capita, the most obvious point is that New York and New Jersey, which towered over every other state last spring, are now utterly dwarfed by North & South Dakota, although things are getting pretty horrible everywhere now.

1 out of every 8 residents of North & South Dakota's entire populations have tested positive for COVID-19 over the past year.

Rhode Island is up to over 1 out of every 9 residents.

Utah, Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa, Oklahoma and Arkansas, Nebraska and Kansas are up to 1 out of every 10 residents.

41 states have seen at least 1 out of every 15 residents test positive.

EVERY state except Washington, Oregon, Maine, Hawaii & Vermont (along with 4 U.S. territories) have now surpassed 1 out of every 20 residents having tested positive.

via Pennie, Pennsylvania's new state-based ACA exchange:

Pennie Opens a COVID-19 Enrollment Period Which Will Run Until May 15

  • Uninsured Pennsylvanians or those affected by COVID-19 can visit pennie.comand enroll in a plan through May 15.  

 Harrisburg, PA – February 17, 2021 – Uninsured Pennsylvanians can act now and enroll in 2021 coverage during Pennie’s COVID-19 Enrollment Period. Pennie, Pennsylvania’s state-based health insurance marketplace, is proud to provide individuals across the Commonwealth additional time to enroll in health insurance to protect them and their families from the cost of the COVID-19 virus. This enrollment period is in-line with President Biden’s recent Executive Order and is open for all Pennsylvanians who have been impacted by COVID-19. Anyone otherwise eligible to enroll in coverage through Pennie™ can do so from now until May 15.

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