For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).
This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
Now that we're a full two months into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
Note: I've temporarily stopped tracking boosters again, as it appears that the data on this front is still too confused to get an accurate county-level national read.
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For Virginia, I'm using theofficial state health department dashboard, but am only updating it once a month since it doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort.
What goes up usually goes back down eventually, and that's likely to be the case with Medicaid enrollment as soon as the public health crisis formally ends...whenever that may be.
Well, yesterday Ryan Levi and Dan Gorenstein of of the Tradeoffs healthcare policy podcast posted a new episode which attempts to dig into just when that might be, how many people could be kicked off of the program once that time comes and how to mitigate the fallout (I should note that they actually reference my own estimate in the program notes):
For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).
This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
Now that we're a full two months into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The "start" of the Delta Wave was easy to lock in for my purposes; both cases and deaths from COVID had dropped off dramatically right up until around the end of June. The Delta Wave started showing up in the daily deaths pretty quickly as July started. The transition from the Delta to Omicron was a lot fuzzier, but I've decided to go with December 15th as my transition point.
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
Note: I've temporarily stopped tracking boosters again, as it appears that the data on this front is still too confused to get an accurate county-level national read.
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For Virginia, I've (reluctantly) switched back to using COVID Act Now data even though it's had some strange data lately. I'd normally use theofficial state health department dashboard, but theirs doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort.
It's also important to note that after both the R2 (correlation) and slope formulas have pretty much plateaued over the past few weeks.
It'll be interesting to see what happens starting around Thanksgiving now that the FDA has given final approval to the Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 year olds (remember, I only track fully-vaccinated people, and the second Pfizer shot isn't given until 3 weeks after the first; assuming the first batch of younger kids starts getting their initial dose tomorrow (November 3rd), that means they should start getting their second dose around November 24th).
For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).
This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
Now that we're a full seven weeks into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The "start" of the Delta Wave was easy to lock in for my purposes; both cases and deaths from COVID had dropped off dramatically right up until around the end of June. The Delta Wave started showing up in the daily deaths pretty quickly as July started. The transition from the Delta to Omicron was a lot fuzzier, but I've decided to go with December 15th as my transition point.
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
Scroll down to also see 3rd/Booster shots, with some important caveats of its own.
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For Virginia, I've (reluctantly) switched back to using COVID Act Now data even though it's had some strange data lately. I'd normally use theofficial state health department dashboard, but theirs doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort.
A couple of weeks ago I ran an updated analysis which attempted to estimate a grim but vitally important number: Just how many Trump voters vs. Biden voters have become fatal victims of the GOP/FOX News coordinated anti-vaxx/anti-mask campaign to date, and what sort of impact might this end up having on the midterm elections this November?
I'm not going to attempt to justify this cynical bean counting anymore...the evidence is now overwhelming that Republican leadership, in coordination with outlets like FOX News and other right-wing outlets, made a conscious decision in spring 2021 to push hard against Americans getting vaccinated against COVID-19.
Over 600,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 since the 2020 election, but assuming the death rate is similar among adults who voted and those who didn't, less than 2/3 of those actually voted in the 2020 general election. Besides children under 18 and undocumented immigrants, the sad reality is that there are tens of millions of American adults who are eligible to vote but either aren't registered or are registered but don't cast a ballot every election cycle.
For months I posted weekly looks at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020), as well as by the vaccination rate of each county in the U.S. (nonpartisan).
This basically amounts to the point when the Delta Variant wave hit the U.S., although it had been quietly spreading under the radar for a few months prior to that.
Now that we're a full six weeks into the Omicron Variant wave, I've updated my case/death rate tracking to reflect that as well...because the data so far is showing a completely new chapter as we enter the 3rd year of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
The "start" of the Delta Wave was easy to lock in for my purposes; both cases and deaths from COVID had dropped off dramatically right up until around the end of June. The Delta Wave started showing up in the daily deaths pretty quickly as July started. The transition from the Delta to Omicron was a lot fuzzier, but I've decided to go with December 15th as my transition point.
