Colorado's official monthly metrics report is out, and shows that while off-season QHP additions have started to drop off as we approach the 2nd Open Enrollment period, they're still within my estimated range of 20-25% of the on-season rate.
Meanwhile, SHOP enrollments have inched above the 2,500 mark to sit at 2,517 covered lives as of the end of September.
Things are definitely tapering off as we come up to the new open enrollment period; Minnesota only added 46 more QHP enrollees in the past week, and just 2,087 more people to either Medicaid or MinnesotaCare. However, this does mean that the MNsure exchange has crossed the 350,000 total milestone:
latest enrollment numbers
October 7, 2014
Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 219,217
MinnesotaCare 76,275
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 55,289 TOTAL 350,781
On the one hand, I've been expecting the daily QHP enrollment rate to drop off nationally as we approach November 15th; anyone who isn't truly desperate for coverage is likely to hold off at this point even if they do have a qualifying life event, given the numerous changes in companies, policies and rates which are going to be available. On the other hand, my "9,000 per day" estimate has always been a bit closer to the low end of the range (7,900 - 10,500 per day at the moment), so I have some wiggle room in this final month anyway.
Here's the good news: The "Healthy Michigan" program, Michigan's name for ACA Medicaid expansion, is up to over 415,000 enrollees, or 87% of the total eligible for the program. Hooray!!
Now here's the bad news: If the Republican Party has their way, every single one of those people will have their brand-new coverage yanked away from them...along with an additional 240,000 or more people (including myself) who are enrolled in private policies thanks to the Affordable Care Act.
Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics
Beneficiaries with Healthy Michigan Plan Coverage: 415,504
(Includes beneficiaries enrolled in health plans and beneficiaries not required to enroll in a health plan.)
*Statistics as of October 13, 2014
*Updated every Monday at 3 p.m.
Combine the two, and that's over 650,000 Michiganders who will be royally screwed if Republicans get their way, or over 6.5% of the entire population of the state.
What arglebargle will come out of Mitch McConnell's mouth regarding trying to yank healthcare away from over half a million Kentuckians this evening?
The Big Senate Debate of the day promises to be the showdown in Kentucky between Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic Challenger (and current Secretary of State) Alison Lundergan Grimes.
Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.
The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.
...The insurance official, who hails from a populous swing state, said his company expects to triple its rates next year on the ObamaCare exchange.
A query from a viewer said he had received health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. To Ernst, he asked, "Have you given any thought to how individuals in my situation won't lose coverage, should repeal occur?"
Ernst called Obamacare a "job killer" in Iowa that is "taking personal health decisions out of our hands and placing them with nameless, faceless bureaucrats in Washington, DC." That is to some degree true, but what about the guy's question? It was a reasonable concern; millions of people are now receiving subsidies to purchase health insurance. If Republicans repeal Obamacare, what happens to them?
Don't Feed the Trolls: A Special Entry for a Special Visitor
...A few days ago, I broke the cardinal rule of blogging and social media: I fed a troll. Specifically, I engaged in a back & forth with a guy who insisted that I don't have any clue what I'm talking about, that I "don't cite my sources" (insane, since every one of my sources is meticulously cited, dated and linked to)...and, in particular, that I'm "lying" about the number of California residents who have "fully" enrolled in exchange-based QHPs in California (and by extension, nationally). If you check the recent Disqus comments you'll see him pop up a few times today.
At first, he was arguing the "But how many have PAID???" line, which I've repeatedly addressed.
Interestingly, he was finally willing to (grudgingly) concede that yes, around 85% of "full enrollments" have indeed been paid to date.
However, he still insisted that the number of "full" enrollments only "counts" if the policy has actually been issued:
Kansas: Shocker: Pat Roberts lying about number of policies cancelled
In Kansas, yes, insurance companies were allowed to bump out non-compliant plans by at least a year...and indeed, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas ended up not cancelling "between 9,500 - 10,000" of their policy holders after all.
So...that basically wipes out half of the "20K cancelled" claim already.
...Supposedly Aetna/Coventry and some smaller providers may have originally been planning on cancelling a bunch of plans as well...except that according to this article, Coventry never got around to doing so in the first place...
...That pretty much leaves BCBS KC and the other 10K. Based on the evidence at hand, my guess is that they likely reversed their cancellation decision as well...and if they did, that means that the actual number of Kansans who lost their healthcare policy in 2013 due to ACA noncompliance may have actually been as little as...ZERO.
Anyone who knows me, or who reads the FAQ (which is to say, hardly anyone), knows that I've never tried to hide my personal political views. I'm a proud progressive, active in the local Democratic Party, and have taken plenty of shots at Republicans here at ACASignups.net. However, I've tried very hard not to let that skew the data I report, and I've also taken plenty of shots at both HHS and/or the various ACA exchanges when they screw up.
Case in point: Just this morning I noted that the Vermont exchange is sending people to their website to pay bills when the site has been offline for weeks, and Oregon's disastrous exchange continues to provide embarrassment with news that they enrolled U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley--himself a proponent of the law--in Medicaid and somehow assigned him 97,000 children.
In any event, when I do go off-topic from time to time, it's generally for something innocuous.
Thanks to Jed Graham for bringing up an interesting point about the 2015 renewal-vs-new-enrollee issue earlier today.
His original point was that it's likely going to cause no end of headaches (especially to me) to try and keep track of the enrollment figures since there's going to be around 7.5 million existing enrollees to contend with (most of whom, I would hope, will renew their policies) plus the newly-added enrollees whose policies start in January or later.
