Charles Gaba's blog

Happy Labor Day Weekend, everyone!

If my calculations are correct, the total number of ACA exchange-based QHP enrollments should now be at around 9.2 million...and the number of people who have paid for their first month's premium should have finally crossed the 8 Million milestone right around...now (plus or minus a week or so).

A few days ago, news broke that Pennsylvania's Governor Tom Corbett, whose re-election numbers are in the toilet and who is desperate to get Pennsylvanians to like him, has finally agreed to the Medicaid expansion provision in the Affordable Care Act.

While "doing a single decent, human thing after a couple of years of being a jerk about it" shouldn't really count as being praiseworthy, I suppose he deserves at least a small golf clap, just as Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and Ohio Gov. John Kasich did.

Anyway, next up to bat would appear to be Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam:

In a move that could mean health coverage for thousands of Tennesseans, Gov. Bill Haslam said Thursday that the state may soon submit a proposal to Washington to expand Tennessee's Medicaid program but did not release any new details on how it might work.

Someone just brought this piece from the right-wing Daily Caller to my attention:

Florida Obamacare Enrollment Total Plummets By A Quarter

Florida’s Obamacare enrollment is now over 220,000 lower than the Obama administration’s most recent tally, according to a report from the state insurance department. 

The Obama administration hasn’t released updated Obamacare enrollment statistics since May, when the Department of Health and Human Services put the number of Florida sign-ups at 983,775 — but the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation says that now, just 762,723 Floridians have health insurance through the exchange.

OK, stop right there. Yes, it's true that the most-recent HHS report had enrollments at 983,775, but that was as of April 19th, not "May". Minor error, I agree, but important in the context of what we're talking about there. OK, go on...

The Maryland Health Connection just issued their latest monthly enrollment report (running from 7/27 - 8/23). On the one hand, the QHP tally includes both new additions and dropped/cancelled enrollments this time around, making it useless for adding to my off-season enrollment projection chart...

Enrollment Data
As of August 23, 78,666 individuals have enrolled in qualified health plans.1

As of August 27, 2014, 355,281 individuals have gained Medicaid coverage in 2014 and remain active in Medicaid. This includes the 95,889 PAC enrollees who were automatically converted on January 1, 2014 to full Medicaid coverage. We have begun reporting the net changes in Medicaid enrollment. This figure takes into account that individuals lose Medicaid coverage because of changes in household, age and income, as well as redeterminations. Compared to December 31, 2013, the net change in Medicaid enrollment as of August 27, 2014 is +262,737. 

A little while ago I posted about the failed Florida "Health Choices" website, the Florida GOP response to the Affordable Care Act. Over a 6 month period, they've only managed to enroll 30 people, total. That's Three-Zero.

So, how does this compare to the cost-per-enrollee of other "failed" Obamacare exchanges?

Well, Healthcare.Gov itself, which enrolled over 5.4 million people and covers 36 states, spent $647 per enrollee.

Nevada's ACA exchange was botched by Xerox to the tune of $51 million, and enrolled 38,000, or $1,342 apiece.

Maryland spent $118 million and had enrolled 78,930 people in private plans as of the end of June. That's $1,495 per person.

File this one under "Not From The Onion":

TALLAHASSEE — Last year, legislators allocated $900,000 to help Floridians find affordable health care through a new state-backed website.

At the same time, they refused to expand Medicaid or work with the federal government to offer subsidized insurance plans.

Six months after the launch of the state's effort, called Florida Health Choices (floridahealthchoices.net), just 30 people have signed up. Another seven plans were canceled either because consumers changed their minds or didn't pay for services.

Huh. OK, exactly 1 day after I snarkily speculated that Cover Oregon is unlikely to release an enrollment update anytime soon due to their increasingly-ugly legal (and technical) battles with Oracle Corp., take a guess what just happened this morning...

August 25, 2014
Update: Private coverage and Oregon Health Plan enrollment through Cover Oregon

Medical enrollments through Cover Oregon: 340,621
Total private medical insurance enrollments through Cover Oregon: 100,013   

Oregon Health Plan enrollments through Cover Oregon: 240,608*

*OHP enrollment data is current as of August 6, 2014. An updated number will be posted soon.

Dental enrollments 
Total private dental insurance enrollments through CoverOregon 1: 20,018

Net enrollments 
Net private medical: 78,714
Net private dental: 14,299

On the one hand, the total QHP number has jumped an impressive 3,103 over a 19 day period, or 163/day, so good on them.

Sarah Kliff at Vox broke the news a few hours ago, but I just received the official press release from CMS; there seems to be some discrepancy about the total number eligible, but it's fantastic news no matter what:

Pennsylvania has apparently struck a deal with the Obama administration to expand its Medicaid program to more than 300,000 poor residents, Joan Alker at Georgetown University tweets:

Pennsylvania would be the 27th state (not including the District of Columbia) to participate in Obamacare's Medicaid expansion, and Gov. Tom Corbett would be the ninth Republican governor to sign on.

According to the CMS Dept, however, the actual number eligible in Pennsylvania could top 500,000:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: CMS Media Relations

August 28, 2014
(202) 690-6145 or press@cms.hhs.gov

CMS Statement on Approval of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania

I post guest entries once in a blue moon, and this one could be huge, if his conclusions are accurate (and still well worth discussion even if they aren't). Recently, both Sarah Kliff over at Vox and Margot Sanger-Katz & Kevin Quealy at the NY Times Upshot have delved into some fascinating and unexpected news regarding Medicare & Medicaid spending in the U.S. over the past few years.

Well, an ACASignups supporter named Jim Stuart (all I really know about him is that he's a retired executive and educator who attended Princeton and lives in Illinois) has gone even deeper into the weeds on this and, well, I'll let those who know more about such things than I do decide how much of a Big Deal this is.

With Jim's request/permission, I'm reposting his piece verbatim, but I'd also advise checking out his own blog.

This is an interesting overview/update about the state of the ACA's small business "SHOP" exchanges, which, by my calculations, have only enrolled around 72,000 people nationally to date (a rounding error compared to the 9,000,000 or so who've enrolled in individual QHPs so far):

But Askew is in a tiny minority. Only 2 percent of all eligible businesses have checked out so-called SHOP (Small Business Health Options Program) exchanges in the 15 states where they have been available since last October under the Affordable Care Act. Even fewer purchased policies.

The good news is that things should start ramping up on the SHOP side this fall:

In November, three more state-run SHOP exchanges are slated to open, and the federal government will unveil exchanges for the 32 states that chose not to run their own.

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