California State-Level Projection: 397K QHPs through 12/08/14?

I've received official confirmation that CoveredCA will give their first official 2015 Open Enrollment Period data report tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.

I'm gonna take a stab at their number:

  • IF I'm correct that Healthcare.Gov hit 1.35 million QHP selections as of 12/05, and
  • IF I'm further correct that Healthcare.Gov is consistently making up appx. 75% of the national total at any given time, and
  • IF I'm further correct that the total QHP selections as of 12/08 hit around 2.21 million, and
  • IF I'm also correct that CoveredCA is making up appx. 18% of the national total, THEN...

...CoveredCA's total through 12/08/14 should be around 397,000 QHP selections.

We'll see how close I come.