On Sunday, February 22nd, the "Waiting in Line by Midnight" enrollment extension period officially ended for residents of 38 states (all 37 on Healthcare.Gov, plus California). The overtime period ended on Friday in Minnesota, on Saturday in Idaho and on Monday in Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Vermont.
That leaves 7 states (plus DC) still accepting some or all enrollments as of today:
IMPORTANT!! The table and graph below make several important assumptions about how the rest of 2015 will play out:
First, this assumes that another 1.8 million people nationally take advantage of the special "Tax Season" enrollment period recently announced by the HHS Dept. The exact date ranges differ for many of the state exchanges (from as early as February 17th in Washington State to as late as May 30th in Vermont), but for the most part we're talking about March 15th - April 30th. 1.8 million is complete dart-throwing on my part; the number of people nationally who are eligible to enroll during this period is somewhere between 0 - 6 million, so there's no way of knowing. 1.8 million just sounded reasonable to me.
As always, I'm assuming that roughly 88% of those who select QHP policies end up paying at least the first month's premium.
This morning, The New York Times ran an Op-Ed by Steven Rattner, including an impressive infographic (the type that represents the U.S. population as lines of silhouette icons representing 1 million people apiece), breaking out the entire country by what type of healthcare coverage they currently have. The point, of course, was to demonstrate just how many people either have healthcare coverage at all thanks to the ACA or how many have improved coverage thanks to it. Every data point presented is credited directly to this website.
I'm not saying this to brag (although it is pretty nifty...my mom is pretty geeked about her kid's work showing up in the Sunday New York Times). I'm mentioning it because I was expecting to receive a flood of attacks on the data and my credibility. There's a bunch of numbers listed there, and the "these are rough estimates" disclaimer at the bottom is pretty innoucuous. Instead...crickets.
I know I've been #humblebragging re. media attention lately. Part of that was to explain the server slowdown a few days ago; part of it is that I'm terribly insecure, and with the open enrollment period wrapping up, I suppose I'm starting to get a bit anxious about my relevance again, bla bla bla. My apologies for that.
Of course, with the recent #ACAOvertime extensions, followed up almost immediately by the #ACATaxTime enrollment periods, it sounds like my lease on relevance has been extended (again) by another couple of months (Vermont is extending their tax period all the way out until the end of May, for heaven's sake!). Plus, of course, the King v. Burwell SCOTUS case will be smack in between the two, and the decision on that isn't expected until June, so I guess there'll be plenty of material for this site for a few more months yet...
Having said that, there are a couple of items to note:
Over the past 2 days, enrollment data updates were released through at least the official February 15th deadline by DC, Vermont, Colorado, Massachusetts and Kentucky (Massachusetts and Rhode Island's new full deadline is now 2/23). In addition, Connecticut released a partial update which ran through Friday the 13th (not including the final surge weekend).
That means that aside from the 2 days in Connecticut, there's only 1 state which is missing significant enrollment data prior to the 2/15 deadline: Idaho. Idaho hasn't issued a full enrollment update report since January 13th, and their QHP tally hasn't been updated since the 2nd monthly ASPE report on January 27th, which brought their data up through January 17th (90,567 QHP selections).
As noted in prior Oregon updates, the exchange QHP total over at the state insurance division website always lags a few days behind the actual HC.gov numbers, but it's the best source for off-exchange QHP enrollments.
As of 2/15/15, exchange QHP selections totalled 110,228 (vs. the 104,201 on the state site), while off-exchange QHPs totalled 98,332...slipping behind for the first time, but still making up over 47% of the total:
The Insurance Division will collect enrollment information from carriers each week throughout 2015 open enrollment. Updated numbers will be posted each week on this web page.
Members enrolled,
Nov. 15-Feb. 15
On Healthcare.gov 104,201 Outside of Healthcare.gov 98,332
Total 202,533
About the data: Enrolled means a person has selected a plan. Consumers must pay the first month's premium for their coverage to become effective. These numbers do not identify whether the first month's premium has been paid. These numbers do not include Oregonians enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid).
OK, you can scratch Kentucky off the list; this leaves just 2 states left (Connecticut and Idaho) which haven't provided enrollment data thorugh the official 2/15 deadline:
2014/2015 Open Enrollment stats as of Thursday 2/19/2015:
Once the ball started rolling on #ACAOvertime extension periods, there was no stopping it; within a few days, all 50 states (+DC) had announced either full or "waiting in line" enrollment extension periods.
The same thing seems to be happening with additional "Tax Season" enrollment periods for people who didn't realize they owed/will owe a tax penalty for not having proper health insurance coverage. Washington was the first to make their announcement; Minnesota and Vermont quickly followed; this morning Healthcare.Gov (which covers 37 states) made it official; a few hours ago, California joined the club, and just now, New York chimed in:
"Regular as clockwork...or a time lock..."
(bonus points if you can guess the movie)
COVERED CALIFORNIA OFFERS CONSUMERS A CHANCE TO MINIMIZE THEIR TAX PENALTY BY ENROLLING IN A HEALTH INSURANCE PLAN
New Category Created for Special Enrollment Allows Those Unaware of a Tax Penalty for Being Uninsured to Sign up for Coverage by April 30
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California is offering a special enrollment opportunity for consumers who did not know or understand there was a tax penalty for being uninsured in 2014 or who learned they may face a penalty for 2015.
“For the first time, health care and taxes now are linked arm in arm,” Covered California Executive Director Peter V. Lee said. “The law requires everyone to be insured, and if you’re not, you may face a significant financial penalty when you file your taxes this year.”
From Feb. 23 until April 30, 2015, consumers are eligible to apply for health coverage during special enrollment by attesting that they did not realize there was a tax penalty. To attest to this fact, they can select “Informed of Tax Penalty Risk” when filling out an application at CoveredCA.com.
