Charles Gaba's blog

I've mentioned tomorrow's Kentucky gubernatorial election, and the fact that Republican candidate Matt Bevin is not just a staunch opponent of the ACA (not exactly a shocker) but that he's repeatedly stated that if elected, he'd repeal the state's implementation of Medicaid expansion, which is currently providing healthcare coverage for about 400,000 people (around 350K enrolled in 2014, and another 50K or so this year).

However, I was a bit shocked this morning when I realized that I've only mentioned the KY race in passing via my "Short Cuts" link roundups.

With the election just one day away and my plate filled with other OE3-related stuff, I don't really have time to do a full write-up. Fortunately, John Oliver of Last Week Tonight has done an excellent job of explaining the whole situation (there's actually three state elections tomorrow where Medicaid expansion is theoretically an issue, but Kentucky is the only one where it's at risk of being taken away). Watch the whole thing:

I've given a lot of interviews to various media outlets over the past 2 years. Most of them are fairly neutral ideologically; some are obviously left-of-center; and once in a blue moon, I'll even provide input to a right-of-center outlet which seems to be intellectually honest about how they present themselves.

Until today, the only anti-ACA media outlet I've ever trusted to be honest about how they present my work is, ironically, one which has also not only mangled my data in the past but which once actually posted a hit job on me, insinuating that I was "cooking my books" in some sort of collaboration with the HHS Dept. to try and "hide" the infamous DentalGate debacle a year ago. The irony, of course, is that not only was this utter bullshit, I was actually the one who discovered and reported the "missing" exchange enrollment problem in the first place. I reported that exchange QHPs had likely dropped to 6.8 million or lower in October before Alex Wayne broke the "DentalGate" story a week or so later. (Wayne's story was still a genuine scoop, however; I knew the numbers didn't match up, but I had no idea why until he wrote his story about CMS inadvertantly double-counting several hundred thousand standalone dental plans).

The thing is, while Investor's Business Daily is mostly full of shit, they do have one honest reporter by the name of Jed Graham, who I actually have a lot of respect for. For instance, just yesterday he wrote a story about the same topic (how much have effectuated exchange QHPs dropped since June) in which he cites my work properly:

Boy, that was fast! From today's Baltimore Sun:

The start of open enrollment on the state's online marketplace for health insurance went smoothly Sunday, officials said, with almost 780 people signing up by late afternoon and many others calling for information or meeting in person with professional advisers.

The Maryland health exchange launched free of the technical problems that disrupted enrollment in the first enrollment season beginning in the fall of 2013.

Performance improved in 2014. Consumers this time were promised a user-friendly website, a simpler application and better access to knowledgeable brokers to help them choose plans, exchange officials said.

Those moves were expected to help the state reach a goal of signing up 150,000 people in private plans, up from 115,000 last year.

"It was a good first day," said Andrew Ratner, exchange spokesman. "Especially being a Sunday."

By 4 p.m., 779 people had enrolled, including 461 in private plans and 136 in Medicaid, and 182 in dental plans.

Thanks to "Intheknow" from the comments for the heads up on this:

NYDFS, NYSOH, CMS ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL ACTIONS REGARDING HEALTH REPUBLIC INSURANCE OF NEW YORK

The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), the New York State of Health Marketplace  (NYSOH), and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) today announced additional actions regarding Health Republic Insurance of New York (“Health Republic”) and a transition plan for Health Republic customers.

Here's a list of links & reminders going into #OE3 (I'll be updating/clarifying this as I go but want to at least get it live for now):

  • Open Enrollment runs from November 1st - January 31st this time around.
  • The deadline for January coverage is December 15th in 46 states/DC.
  • The deadline for January coverage is December 23rd in ID, MA, RI & WA.
  • The deadline for February coverage is Jan. 15th in 46 states/DC, Jan. 23rd in ID/MA/RI/WA.
  • After that, you still have until Jan. 31st to enroll, but your coverage won't start until March 1st.
  • Hawaii is no longer running through their own website; HI now uses HealthCare.Gov.

Here's a summary of the Eight Most Important Pieces of Advice I Can Give for 2016 Open Enrollment:

Hat tip to Politico's Paul Demko for the story (subscription only) and Katie Jennings for the tip. According to the Arizona Dept. of Insurance, an 11th CO-OP is being pulled off of the ACA exchange literally hours (as in, less than 24 hours) before the launch of the 2016 Open Enrollment Period:

Meritus Health Placed Under Supervision

Two Arizona health insurance companies have been placed under supervision by the Arizona Director of Insurance, Andy Tobin.  Director Tobin filed an Order for Supervision on October 30, 2015, to place Meritus Health Partners and Meritus Mutual Health Partners into supervision.  Meritus declined to consent to the Order for Supervision.  The Meritus companies’ ability to write new policies or renew existing policies is suspended.  The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has removed the Meritus plans from the Marketplace.  Director Tobin, appointed as Supervisor under Arizona law, will oversee the two companies.

NOTE: True Healthcare Data Nerds who want to see the details on every 2016 HC.gov policy should skip to the end of this entry.

The HHS Dept. held a conference call and issued a brief regarding 2016 Open Enrollment this afternoon. There's a bunch of data points and info, but the biggest takeaway for me is this one:

More than 8 in 10 (86 percent) current Marketplace enrollees can find a lower premium plan in the same metal level before tax credits by returning to the Marketplace to shop for coverage. If all consumers switched from their current plan to the lowest-cost premium plan in the same metal level, the total savings would be $4.5 billion. In 2015, nearly one-third of consumers who reenrolled in a Marketplace plan switched to a new plan.

Last week, in light of the #RiskCorridorMassacre debacle, I tried to find some good news on the CO-OP front, and while I didn't find much to cheer about, there were some bright spots in Maine/New Hampshire (where one CO-OP actually turned a profit last year), along with Illinois, Montana, Idaho, Ohio and Wisconsin (where the CO-OPs are still losing money, but seem to have staunched the blood flow and claim to be stable now, to put it in medical terms).

Today I can add one more state to the Good News column...New Jersey:

During the past month, five health insurance co-ops across the country have announced they are shutting down at the end of this year.

Health policy analysts are predicting more closures, but Health Republic of New Jersey probably won’t be one of them.

CNBC's Dan Mangan reports:

HealthCare.gov is going to see some shrinkage in 2016.

The number of health insurance plans available on that huge federal Obamacare marketplace for 2016 is decreasing by up to 12 percent compared with this year, industry sources told CNBC.

And there will be an even sharper reduction — of more than 40 percent — in the number of health plans on HealthCare.gov known as PPO plans, which offer customers the most flexibility in where they can get medical services covered by their insurer, sources said.

At the same time, there will be a marked increase in the number of so-called HMO plans, which do not as a rule cover costs incurred by customers outside of the plan's network of health providers.

The decreases on HealthCare.gov — which serves residents of 37 states — come a year after federal officials boasted about a 25 percent increase in the number of insurers offering plans for 2015.

As regular readers know, I've been trying to figure out whether effectuated ACA exchange enrollments have dropped noticably since the second quarter or not. Since last November, the HHS Dept. has been projecting that the effectuated number will be down to 9.1 million enrollees by December from 9.95 milliion as of the end of June.

However, over the past couple of weeks, I've compiled Q3 (end of September) data from 8 different state exchanges which collectively suggest that current enrollments are actually up since June...or, at worst, have only dropped slightly:

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