Charles Gaba's blog

Like HealthCare.Gov (for 37 states) and Minnesota have done already, Colorado's insurance commissioner is also letting state residents know about the importance of shopping around for their insurance policy for 2016:

Health insurance premiums will increase on average 7 percent in Colorado in 2016, according to statistics compiled by the state division that reviewed and approved plans for the coming year.

...Consumers who purchased through Connect for Health Colorado, the state health insurance exchange, in 2015 who aren’t eligible for tax credits will see an average increase of 12 percent if they simply renew their current plan for 2016.

A couple of weeks ago, I posted the following:

Look, the later part of the article talks about the form in question itself, IRS Form 8962, being overly complicated, and perhaps it is. It's 2 pages, and while it's certainly not as bad as some other federal tax forms, I can definitely see it being intimidating to those who are used to just filling out the 1040-EZ form, as I did years ago. Comic strips and sitcoms have used the "Taxes Are Hard!!" meme as comedic fodder for decades. So no, I'm not going to berate anyone complaining about the form being difficult to fill out.

HOWEVER, complaining about having to file a tax return AT ALL? You're receiving thousands of dollars in tax credits and you didn't think you'd have to fill out a tax form in order to prove your eligibility?

Some Guy, July 10th:

Gallup, Today:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The uninsured rate among U.S. adults aged 18 and older was 11.4% in the second quarter of 2015, down from 11.9% in the first quarter. The uninsured rate has dropped nearly six percentage points since the fourth quarter of 2013, just before the requirement for Americans to carry health insurance took effect.

...Again, it's safe to assume that this has gone down as well, although probably not as dramatically as for adults. A similar 36.7% drop would be around 2.2 million children (taking population increase into effect), but even half of that would still lop a good million children off the uninsured tally...or an additional 0.3% of the total population.

In other words, it's likely that the actual uninsured rate for the entire U.S. population (all 320 million of us) is down to around 28 million adults + 4.9 million children, around 33 million total...or 10.3% of the entire population.

The National Health Interview Survey, Today:


Oh, wait...no, it's actually just The Graph, officially returning for the third go-around.

I know, I know; you're looking at this and saying "How the hell is he getting 230,000 nationally when he's only confirmed around 8,700?"

Simple. In fact, as I explained earlier today, it's entirely possible that the national total is much higher than 230K already--it could potentially be up to as high as 800,000 or more already. Here's a simplified explanation:

8,500 of those 8,700 come from Maryland over the first 3 days of this week. Maryland enrolled around 120,000 people during open enrollment last year...which just happens to be roughly 1% of total enrollments nationally.

From today's Albequerque Journal:

The dozen collapses will disrupt insurance for 740,000 individuals and small-business employees, who are being instructed by state and federal officials to choose new plans in time for them to take effect in January. In New York state, the window is narrower. Government officials have moved up the closing date of the New York Health Republic co-op, the nation’s largest, giving its more than 200,000 members just two weeks to select different coverage before it shuts down at the end of this month.

Although it lost money in 2014, New Mexico Health Connections is “financially very strong” with strong cash reserves, CEO Martin Hickey said Wednesday. In fact, the co-op expects to greatly expand by picking up consumers who had been insured with Blue Cross Blue Shield New Mexico on the state health exchange. Blue Cross is not offering individual insurance policies on the exchange for 2016.

“Our competitors don’t want to believe it necessarily, but we’re financially healthy,” Hickey said. “We’re going to be here for a very long time.”

OK, this isn't an official exchange update, and it only covers the "first hour after opening" on Sunday, but aside from Maryland, this is the only hard number I have so far; from Sunday's Wall St. Journal:

The federal exchange, HealthCare.gov, opened for business Sunday and will serve 38 states that rely on the marketplace. California’s state-run exchange is launching a 38-stop bus tour to get the word out about signing up and re-enrolling for coverage. Minnesota’s exchange had a couple hundred people sign up in the first hour after opening in the morning with no signs of any technology problems.

“We’re not expecting a whole lot of enrollment because it’s a 60 degree day on a Sunday, but so far so good,” said Shane Delaney, a spokesman for MNsure. The state exchange has hundreds of brokers and navigators geared up to assist consumers.

OK, that's a bare minimum of 200 QHP selections as of 10am (I'm guessing) on Nov. 1st in Minnesota. Duly noted.

One of the arguments Kentucky Governor-elect Matt Bevin has made in favor of killing off the wildly successful, smoothly-operating kynect state-based ACA exchange has been that doing so would "save Kentucky money". The idea is that by shifting everything over to the federal exchange at HealthCare.Gov, the state of Kentucky would save the cost of operating their own exchange.

In one sense, this is true; kynect is currently supported by a flat 1% charge for all premiums on all individual policies sold in Kentucky, both "inside and outside of the marketplace." In other words. whether you enroll in a individual policy either via Kynect or directly through the insurance carrier, they're tacking on a 1% surcharge to your premiums to pay for the exchang to operate. So, yes, dropping kynect would also stop that 1% fee from being charged.

I finally brought my 2016 Average Rate Hike project to a close a couple of weeks ago, coming to the conclusion that nationally, weighted average rates on the individual market are going up around 12-13% overall. With Open Enrollment having kicked off, I'm pretty swamped and don't have the time to revisit every state to update/correct every piece of missing or erroneous data.

HOWEVER, in cases where the corrected/updated numbers drop into my lap, I'm fine with making an exception:

OLYMPIA, Wash. – Individuals and families looking for health insurance this fall have 15 insurers and 210 health plans to choose from, starting Nov. 1.

Health insurers requested an average rate change of 5.6 percent for their 2016 individual health plans, but the Office of the Insurance Commissioner approved 3.9 percent after a review.  Actual premium amounts will vary based on the plan someone selects, their age, how many people are covered, and where they live.

If you're one of the ACA-created CO-OPs which isn't going out of business, I have to imagine that it's a tough enough job convincing current enrollees to stick with you right now, much less convincing new customers to give you a shot. I mean, look at it from the perspective of someone needing coverage; they're probably gonna be jumpy about signing up with one of the CO-OPs, fearing that they might be shut down just a few weeks/months later, right?

Well, for Common Ground, the Wisconsin CO-OP, which isn't going out of business and which is accepting both renewals as well as new customers right now, this can't be helping matters (from an email just sent to me today):

Copy of email sent by Common Ground Healthcare Co-op (Wisconsin).... 

November 3, 2015

If you called the Marketplace and were told that our plans are not available for 2016, you were given INCORRECT information.

Wow!

Through yesterday, 8537 people have already enrolled in private health plan coverage for 2016 at https://t.co/GpASXcJbQN Is it your turn?

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) November 4, 2015

And https://t.co/GpASXcJbQN now offers dental coverage for 2016 too. 1705 Marylanders enrolled in dental through yesterday. Makes us smile!

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) November 4, 2015

Just to be certain that the 8,537 figure doesn't include Medicaid or the dental figure mixed in with it, I asked and they confirmed:

@charles_gaba Correct. That's all QHP. Dental's in the other tweet.

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) November 4, 2015

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