Charles Gaba's blog

A couple of weeks ago I reported that MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange, had achieved 108.5K QHP selections, putting them within 1,500 enrollments of breaking their all-time record set last year.

Yesterday they issued the following press release:

Minnesotans benefiting from tax credits averaging over $7,000 per year
January 2, 2018

ST. PAUL, Minn.—With just under two weeks left in the 2018 open enrollment period, MNsure is reminding Minnesota residents of important money-saving tax credits. The statewide household average for tax credits is around $7,000 per year. Approximately 62 percent of enrolled households are receiving tax credits.

“Minnesotans are saving an average of over $7,000 per year from tax credits when purchasing coverage through MNsure,” said Allison O’Toole, MNsure CEO. “This is real money for Minnesota families, and can help make the unaffordable, affordable.”

UPDATE 1/13/18: Colorado's deadline passed last night, so we're now down to 5 states + DC: 79.9 million people, or roughly 24.5% of the population.

UPDATE 1/15/18: Minnesota's deadline passed last night, so we're now down to 4 states + DC: 74.3 million people, or roughly 23% of the population. (Note: I had a miscalculation in an earlier version of this post)

UPDATE 1/16/18: Washington State's deadline passed last night, so now we're down to 3 states + DC: 69 million people or roughly 20.6% of the population.

UPDATE 1/19/18: I've added Puerto Rico & the U.S. Virgin Islands to the graphic below to note the SEP added for those who've moved to the mainland.

UPDATE 1/24/18: Massachusetts' deadline passed last night, so now we're down to California, New York and DC: 60 million people or roughly 18% of the population.

Happy New Year!

2018 Open Enrollment has officially (and unofficially) ended for 44 47 states.

HOWEVER...there are 6 3 other states, as well as the one in the District of Columbia, which have deadlines later than December 31st:

  • Colorado: Jan. 12th for coverage starting Feb. 1st.
  • Minnesota: Jan. 14th for coverage starting Feb. 1st.
  • Washington State: Jan. 15th for coverage starting Feb. 1st.
  • Massachusetts: Jan. 23rd for coverage starting Feb. 1st.
  • California: Jan. 31st (enroll by Jan. 15th for Feb. 1st coverage; enroll by Jan. 31st for Mar. 1st coverage)
  • District of Columbia: Jan. 31st (enroll by Jan. 15th for Feb. 1st coverage; enroll by Jan. 31st for Mar. 1st coverage)
  • New York: Jan. 31st (enroll by Jan. 15th for Feb. 1st coverage; enroll by Jan. 31st for Mar. 1st coverage)

Collectively, these states/DC represent over 85.5 million people, or 26% of the entire U.S. population.

via U.S. News & World Report:

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) — Rhode Island's health insurance exchange says time is almost up to purchase coverage for 2018.

HealthSource RI says Sunday is the last day to choose and pay for a 2018 health plan through the exchange for residents who don't receive affordable health coverage through an employer.

HealthSource RI said Friday that more than 32,000 people have signed up and many new enrollees are 18 to 34 years old.

Last year, about 30,000 people enrolled.

HealthSource RI says it wants to remind people they need to purchase insurance for 2018 to avoid a tax penalty.

Rhode Island has now officially beaten last year's total of 29,456 QHP selections, though they're still way down from the 34,670 they achieved two years ago. Of course they still have until tomorrow (New Year's Eve deadline), so they might be able to come close. At a minimum, RI is now at least 8.6% ahead of last year.

Fire up the wayback machine, Sherman, and set your course for late 2014:

Default Re-Enrollment: Under current rules, consumers who do not take action during the open enrollment window are re-enrolled in the same plan they were in the previous year, even if that plan experienced significant premium increases. We are considering alternative options for re-enrollment, under which consumers who take no action might be defaulted into a lower cost plan rather than their current plan. We are considering allowing states to pursue these sorts of re-enrollment alternatives for coverage in 2016. The FFM is exploring such an approach for coverage in 2017.

Me, yesterday:

Now here's some bad news: The effectuated enrollee drop-off could be fierce this spring, for two important reasons.

...So what's gonna be different for 2018?

Well, first of all, 41 states, the official Open Enrollment deadline was on December 15th. That means that unlike prior years, it's too late for most of these folks to change their minds. They can either stick with the policy they signed up for (or were signed up for) or they can drop it, but that's it. Of course, anyone who was enrolled into a differentpolicy than the one they already had technically still has a 60-day window from 12/31 (until March 1st) to choose a different policy via a Special Enrollment Period, but otherwise their options are limited.

In other words, assuming several hundred thousand people drop their policies after 12/15 but before 1/31, instead of already being accounted for, they won't show up in the until the First Quarter report is released, likely sometime in April. This will make it look as though the "March drop-off" is more like perhaps ~18% instead of ~14%.

The good news, as touted by myself and pretty much every other ACA supporter last week, is that in spite of every type of sabotage, undermining, obstruction and confusion thrown at Obamacare over the past year by Donald Trump along with Congressional Republicans, the 5th Open Enrollment Period for the Affordable Care Act is actually going...pretty well, all things considered.

As I noted last Wednesday, over 8.8 million people enrolled in exchange policies via the federal exchange (which covers 39 states), and I've also confirmed that another 2.8 million have enrolled in the other 11 states (+DC) which operate their own full ACA exchange engines, for a total of more than 11.6 million QHP selections so far. In addition, Open Enrollment is still ongoing across nearly half the country; not only do 10 of the 12 state-based exchanges have extended deadlines (all the way out to the traditional 1/31/18 cut-off for three of them), but thanks to a Special Enrollment Period created by CMS in response to the various hurricanes which ravaged southern states a few months back, 8 more states still have until New Year's Eve for people to #GetCovered.

I've confirmed with the Massachusetts Health Connector that their official QHP selection tally stood at exactly 262,534 as of Christmas Day (12/25).

This puts them a mere 232 higher than they were 6 days earlier (12/19), which seemed a little odd to me given that 12/23 was MA's deadline for January 1st coverage; normally I'd expect a last-minute enrollment surge in the final days ahead of a big deadline, although it's not nearly as big a deal in the states which still have later deadlines for February or March coverage. On the other hand, Christmas Eve and Day were included here, and no one enrolls in health insurance on Christmas, of course. I wouldn't expect much this week either with New Year's coming up; there's usualy a 9-day Dead Zone from 12/24 - 1/01 anyway.

Breaking News from Your Health Idaho:

Despite Changes, Idahoans Flock to Health Insurance Exchange
2018 Enrollment Nears Record

BOISE, Idaho – Your Health Idaho announced today that nearly 102,000 Idahoans signed up for 2018 health insurance coverage on the exchange.

“This is a testament to Idaho’s model for operating an exchange. Despite the enormous uncertainty from Washington, combined with a shortened enrollment period, Your Health Idaho has been able to serve near record numbers of Idahoans,” said Pat Kelly, executive director of Your Health Idaho.

The enrollment numbers include new and returning customers. A significant difference for 2018 is the monthly premium pricing. Increased tax credits offset rising premiums to the extent that some Idahoans purchased plans for little to no monthly cost. Enrollments in these less expensive bronze plans increased by fifteen percentage points over the previous year. In total, 101,793 Idahoans enrolled in 2018 health coverage in just half the time of last year.

via the Providence Journal:

HealthSource RI enrollment far exceeds projections

Updated Dec 22, 2017 at 7:48 PM

More than 30,700 have already signed up, and hours at the walk-in and call centers have been extended in anticipation of a surge in enrollments leading up to the Dec. 31 deadline.

PROVIDENCE — Rhode Island has outpaced projected sign-ups for Obamacare next year with more than 30,700 residents now enrolled in health insurance through the state-based health insurance exchange.

HealthSource RI officials expected to see around 30,000 people in total enrolled by the end of December. With a little more than a week to go and the last days of open enrollment typically the busiest, numbers are sure to increase.

I know it's Christmas Eve, and I know it's not the biggest deal in the world, but this headline has been irritating the hell out of me for the past couple of days:

More than 4 in 5 enrolled in Obamacare are in Trump states

WASHINGTON — Americans in states that Donald Trump carried in his march to the White House account for more than 4 in 5 of those signed up for coverage under the health care law the president still wants to take down.

An Associated Press analysis of new figures from the government found that 7.3 million of the 8.8 million consumers signed up so far for next year come from states Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The four states with the highest number of sign-ups — Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia, accounting for nearly 3.9 million customers — were all Trump states.

Yes, this is true: ~7.3 million out of 8.8 million, or roughly 83%, of enrollees in the 39 states covered by HealthCare.Gov do indeed reside in states won by Donald Trump last year.

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