COVID-19 Vaccine

The vaccination levels for each state below are based on taking the total number of COVID-19 doses administered to date according to the Centers for Disease Control), then and dividing that into double the state population (since each person needs two doses to be fully vaccinated) as of April 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

I then adjust each state by counting the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine twice (since it's effectively similar to getting 2 Pfizer or Moderna doses).

UPDATE 5/21/21: The first few times I did this, I estimated J&J at 3.5% for every state; since then I've found that the CDC does provide the exact number of each type of vaccine for every ranges from as low as 1.9% in Hawaii to as high as 6.5% in Maine, which is kind of interesting. The later graphs at the bottom have been adjusted to reflect this.


A week ago I noted that my year-long tracking of COVID-19 cases and deaths along partisan lines has proven to be very much justified, as recent headlines in major news outs have proven:

Nearly half of Republicans say they don’t want a Covid vaccine, a big public health challenge.

But more than two in five Republicans said they would avoid getting vaccinated if possible, suggesting that President Biden has not succeeded in his effort to depoliticize the vaccines — and leaving open the question of whether the country will be able to achieve herd immunity without a stronger push from Republican leaders to bring their voters on board.

‘I’m still a zero’: Vaccine-resistant Republicans warn that their skepticism is worsening


As regular readers know, for over a year now, I've been tracking the spread of COVID-19 per capita case and death rates a) at the county (not just state) level and b) along partisan lines.

The most obvious example of this has been my weekly updated breakout of the RATIO between the case & death rates over time in "Blue Counties" (those won in 2016 by Hillary Clinton, later replaced by those won in 2020 by Joe Biden, by at least 6 points or more) vs. the rates in "Red Counties" (those won by Donald Trump in 2016, late replaced with 2020 results, by 6 points or more).

As of last week, that graph looked like this: