During the first open enrollment period, the official data releases from the various exchanges ranged all over the place.

HHS, of course, only issued monthly reports, without giving any official data in between (that is, until the numbers started looking good, at which point they issued milestone press releases of "3 million", "5 million" and so on, although even then they didn't give exact numbers or dates).

Some of the state exchanges stuck with monthly numbers as well (Colorado), while others gave out data roughly weekly (Nevada, via Twitter), bi-weekly, or whenever they happened to feel like it (most of the other states). As things ramped up towards March/April, some states started issuing regular weekly updates (including Oregon, which is ironic given all of their technical problems).

An hour or so ago I posted this tweet from HuffPost's Jeffrey Young, who writes:

HealthCare.Gov processed 23,000 completed applications during the first eight hours, @SecBurwell says. pic.twitter.com/COAJpKFftV

— Jeffrey Young (@JeffYoung) November 15, 2014

Unfortunately, I'm not sure whether "processed completed applications" means actual enrollments or just accounts created. Presumably HHS will provide better clarity on this sort of language (and quickly) going forward. Plus, of course, a single policy enrollment could have 2, 3 or more people in a household.

However, I'm happy to report the very first official enrollment update is also already available, and it's out of Vermont, one of the states with a highly-troubled exchange last time around!

Hold on to your hats, here it is:

During the 2014 Open Enrollment Period, the federal exchange at Healthcare.Gov enrolled 68% of the 8.02 million total through April 19th. However, it didn't start out that way; 68% was the cumulative percentage. Due to the severe technical problems at HC.gov (along with some of the state exchanges), during the first month, the federal site only made up 25% of the total. As technical problems were worked out, this ratio shifted dramatically as follows:

  • October: 25% Federal, 75% State-based
  • November: 43% Federal, 57% State-based
  • December: 59% Federal, 41% State-based
  • January: 65% Federal, 35% State-based
  • February: 72% Federal, 35% State-based
  • March/April: 75% Federal, 25% State-based

As you can see, once HC.gov worked the bugs out, it took off bigtime, and was enrolling 75% of the total by the time the Big Surge came at the end.

March 19, 2014:

Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.

The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.

...The insurance official, who hails from a populous swing state, said his company expects to triple its rates next year on the ObamaCare exchange. 

A few minutes ago, a guy named Ed Lyons tweeted the following:

The new @HealthConnector exchange launches tomorrow, 8 am. As I have said for a couple of months, I think it will be fine this time. #mapoli

— Ed Lyons (@mysteriousrook) November 14, 2014

This is huge. Why?

Because Ed Lyons is the same guy who wrote The Health Connector Autopsy Report, which documented everything that went wrong with the MA ACA exchange project, from before the beginning until after the end. I mean, everything.

All 31,000 words of it.

It's difficult to get across just how in-depth, comprehensive or well-researched/documented that report is. It's also important to understand that a) to the best of my knowledge, like myself, Mr. Lyons didn't do it for money or for fun; it was something of an obsession for him. It should also be noted that Mr. Lyons is a Republican.

Lots of people have spent today saying stuff like this:

OK, the numbers have barely moved, and technically this update is missing 3 days (it only runs through 11/11 instead of 11/14), but MNsure has been the only exchange, federal or state, which has provided an almost odometer-like frequency of off-exchange updates.

Therefore, in a tribute to MNsure, here's their final 2014 QHP update before #OE2 kicks off:

Latest Enrollment Numbers

November 11, 2014

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 234,751
MinnesotaCare 80,387
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 55,900
TOTAL 371,038

  • QHPs wrap things up at 55,900 (adding 21 more people over 2 days)
  • Medicaid has added another 53 people
  • MinnesotaCare is actually down by...4 people. Presumably some family of 4 moved onto better times?

And that's a wrap, folks.

Yes, of course it's blank. As you can see, I'm doing things a bit differently this time around: I'm presenting the full enrollment period all at once (doable since it's only 3 months instead of 6), and I'm including the official "targets" from HHS, CBO and myself on the right side.

Underneath, just for posterity, I've posted the final version of the 2014 Graph.

This morning, even as I was posting my official 2015 QHP projection, Gallup came out with two important surveys regarding ACA exchange enrollees:

55% of Americans who currently lack insurance say they plan to sign up for coverage while 35% of the uninsured say they will not get insurance and instead pay the fine as required by the Affordable Care Act, also known as "Obamacare."

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