Disclosure: Health Sherpa is a paid sponsor of this site.

I've written about Health Sherpa's stunning ACA enrollment growth several times in the past:

Three key takeaways from the CMS snapshot of the first 18 days of Open Enrollment:

1. HealthSherpa is up nearly 70% year over year, with over 2.4 million people enrolled.
2. The entire Federal Marketplace is up 40% year over year, with almost 4.1 million people covered in the same time frame.
3. We estimate that 2 out of 3 new enrollments in Federal Marketplace states - people newly covered by the ACA - came through HealthSherpa.

• Policies: 1.79M
• Covered Lives: 2.43M

At the time, 2.43 million enrollees via Sherpa and their affiliates represented roughly 60% of all HC.gov enrollees for the first 18 days of the 2024 ACA Open Enrollment Period.

Just 3 days ago, I posted a revised 2024 ACA Open Enrollment Period projection, in which I upgraded my prior projection from 18.5 million Americans signing up for either Qualified Health Plans (QHPs) or Basic Health Plans (BHPs) combined nationally to over 19 million doing so. That 18.5M projection was itself a drop from my original projection of 19M QHPs + BHPs combined from a month earlier.

I delved into the various reasons for both my original and revised projections, but the bottom line is that I figured it would end up being somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 - 19.5 million, give or take, likely broken out something like ~18 million QHPs plus another ~1.3 million BHPs in New York & Minnesota only.

I even included 20 million as an outside possibility.

via Pennie, Pennsylvania's state-based ACA exchange:

Harrisburg, PA – 12/19/23 – Following Pennie’s first Open Enrollment deadline, a record number of over 405,000 Pennsylvanians enrolled through PA’s official health insurance marketplace (pennie.com) with coverage starting January 1st.

For anyone who missed the first deadline, there is still time to apply, shop, and enroll in a 2024 health plan for coverage beginning February 1st.  Open Enrollment is the only time of year to shop for 2024 coverage, and Pennsylvanians must enroll by January 15th. Waiting until an illness or injury strikes will be too late.

The record high enrollment numbers are a promising step toward Pennie’s mission of expanding access to affordable health coverage. Pennie is the only place where Pennsylvanians can get financial savings to reduce the cost of coverage and care. Currently, nine in 10 enrollees qualify and save more than $500 a month on average.

Via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

HealthCare.gov Enrollment Exceeds 15 Million, Surpassing Previous Years’ Milestones

Biden-Harris Administration encourages everyone who needs affordable, quality health insurance to visit HealthCare.gov and sign up for coverage by the January 16 final deadline.

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

Biden-Harris Administration Releases New Medicaid and CHIP Renewal Data Showing the Role State Policy Choices Play in Keeping Kids Covered

• Sec. Becerra Calls on Nine States with the Highest Child Disenrollments to Immediately Take Up Proven Federal Flexibilities to Protect Children and Families; Biden-Harris Administration Extends Federal Flexibilities to States Until End of 2024

Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released new data on state Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment changes among children and youth since full eligibility renewals for these programs restarted earlier this year. The data released today make it clear that state policy choices have real consequences for children and families during Medicaid and CHIP renewals. States that take up proven flexibilities and strategies from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) are better able to protect kids’ coverage – especially when the state has also expanded Medicaid.

via the Washington HealthPlan Finder:

Mark Farrah Associates is an electronic publisher of business information and analytics for the U.S. healthcare industry; they aggregate industry data and market metrics for their own database products that they sell on a subscription basis.

They typically release state-level breakout estimates of the total U.S. individual market once or twice a year. They last did so in July 2023, although they only included a national total at the time, pegging it at around 19.5 million as of the end of March.

Via MNsure:

More Than 132k Minnesotans Will Have a Full Year of Quality, Comprehensive Health Insurance in 2024

A new early sign-up record as MNsure celebrates its ten-year anniversary

ST. PAUL, Minn.—MNsure is pleased to report that 132,789 Minnesotans signed up for 2024 health insurance through Minnesota’s official health insurance marketplace between November 1 and December 15, 2023.

“Over 132,000 Minnesotans will welcome the new year with the peace of mind and security of a full year of high-quality, comprehensive coverage through MNsure,” said MNsure CEO Libby Caulum.

This incredible start to MNsure’s annual enrollment period sets a new early enrollment record for the marketplace. Private health plan sign-ups have increased by 11% compared to the same time last year. With enhanced federal tax credits available only through MNsure, eligible families will save $6,750 in 2024, on average, and spend 5% less on private health plan premiums than they did this year.

Back on November 5th, just a few days into the 2024 Open Enrollment Period, I did some back-of-the-math number crunching and concluded that the odds were pretty good that total 2024 OEP ACA enrollment (including both exchange-based Qualified Health Plans, or QHPs, as well as enrollment in Basic Health Plans (BHPs) in New York & Minnesota only) would break 19 million people for the first time in the ACA's history.

This was based on some simple assumptions:

via CoverME.gov, Maine's state-based ACA exchange:

Plan Selection Snapshot

The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.  

Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2024. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin insurance. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.   

The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2024 is December 15, 2023. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2023 and January 16, 2024 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2024. 

CoverME.gov Activity Through December 12, 2023