As I've noted before, until today, there was one state which I had no OE4 data for whatsoever: Vermont (which is ironic given their historic support of healthcare reform, including Sen. Bernie Sanders). This blank has been filled in by today's supplemental CMS/ASPE report: 29,021 QHP selections as of 12/24, which is actually quite a bit higher than I expected for the state (my target for VT is only 30,000 total through 1/31).
As regular readers know, I've always made sure to report the number of people who enroll in the ACA's Basic Health Plan (BHP) programs in Minnesota (since 2014) and New York (since 2016). The HHS Dept. didn't really highlight BHP numbers in 2014 or 2015 because they weren't even a rounding error nationally (they had 43,000 enrolled in BHPs via MNsure in April 2014, for instance). In addition, the BHP program in Minnesota was really just a retooling/expansion of an existing program anyway. As a result, it was treated as more of a footnote in the national reports. Interestingly, the number of MN residents enrolling in BHPs through MNsure this year is quite a bit lower (20,000), although state-wide the number is much higher (around 62,000 as of this week). Basically, 1/3 of MinnesotaCare enrollees are doing so via the ACA exchange, the rest via traditional state agencies/processes.
Minnesota is a different story. They started out Open Enrollment with a bang, racking up enrollees at up to 12x last year's pace...but that was mainly due to their unique "enrollment cap" policy this year. Once the caps were filled and current enrollees were all squared away, new enrollments appear to have dropped off dramatically. They're now dead last percent-of-target wise (again, I can't include NY or VT here since neither has enough data available).
It feels a little odd to be alternating estimates about how many people could lose their coverage in each state with the number signing up for it at the same time, but that's where we are: Remember, there's still 6 more days for people to enroll for 2017 coverage starting in February, and 16 days after that to sign up for coverage starting in March.
Connect for Health Colorado Reports Increase in Healthcare Plan Selections for 2017 Coverage
DENVER — More than 158,000 Coloradans selected healthcare coverage for 2017 through the state health insurance Marketplace through Sunday, January 8, a rate 18 percent ahead of signups one year ago, according to new data released today by Connect for Health Colorado®.
Oops. Last week I reported that Access Health CT appeared to state that they had a total of 114,421 QHP selections during the current open enrollment period. The wording was slightly squirrelly ("currently active for 2016 and/or 2017"), especially since I also knew there were around 12,000 existing enrollees who still hadn't chosen a new policy...but an earlier update had given the number as "around 113,000" in a seemingly less-confusing way, so I assumed that all 114,421 applied to 2017.
22 Percent Increase Over Last Year • New Yorkers Show Demand for Quality, Affordable Healthcare
ALBANY, N.Y. (January 6, 2017) – NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today announced that more than 3.4 million people have enrolled in health insurance through December 24, 2016.
With almost a month to go until the end of the 2017 Open Enrollment period, participation in the NY State of Health Marketplace has already increased more than 22 percent since the last Open Enrollment period ended, January 31, 2016. Enrollment has increased in all 62 counties of the state. The overall share of New Yorkers now enrolled through the NY State of Health has reached nearly 18 percent of the state’s population.
OK. Today saw fresh enrollment updates from Rhode Island (nominal), Covered California (impressive) and, most significantly, HealthCare.Gov (which not only covers 39 states, but also finally includes auto-renewals). I now have auto-renewal for 48 states + DC included in the mix, and the numbers are current through 12/31/16 or later for 41 of them. I still have no data whatsoever from Vermont (ironic, given their history of progressive healthcare policy, Bernie Sanders, etc), and only very limited data out of New York (they mentioned 55,000 enrollments over a 3-day period just ahead of the December deadline, but nothing from before or after that).
As i noted last week, with all renewing enrollees accounted for, Rhode Island's ACA exchange is likely to come up short not only of my pre-election projection (40,000 enrollees), but will likely see a drop from last year's 34,670 QHP selections. They had only hit 29,312 QHPs as of Christmas Eve, and have only tacked on another 580 people since then:
INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT • As of December 31, 2016
Hot on the heels of Covered California's update just moments ago, the HHS Dept. has posted their latest bi-weekly Snapshot report. While the extra 2 weeks of data is obvoiusly important, the key number I've been anxiously awaiting is the auto-renewal number, which is finally included in today's report:
Biweekly Enrollment Snapshot • WEEKS 8 AND 9, DEC 18 – DEC 31, 2016
8.8 million Americans have signed up for coverage through HealthCare.gov since Open Enrollment began on November 1st. This compares to about 8.6 million plan selections last year at this time, demonstrating Americans’ strong and growing demand for affordable, quality coverage. Total plan selections as of December 31st, which include auto reenrollments, consist of 2.2 million new consumers and 6.6 million returning consumers. Among returning consumers, two thirds, or 4.4 million, actively selected a plan, an increase from last year’s already high levels of consumer engagement.
Between the big December deadline (for January coverage) having passed and the holiday season, the actual OE4 enrollment data has been pretty sparse the past few weeks. A few minutes ago, however, Covered California broke the enrollment news drought (no pun intended) with a press release which, while not primarily focused on the actual enrollment data, nonetheless includes a solid update:
Covered California Brings Health Care Within Reach and Shows How Consumers Can Save by Shopping