Medicaid Expansion

It was just 53 days ago that North Carolina became the 40th state (plus DC & the U.S. territories) to fully expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. At the time, around 600,000 lower-income North Carolinians were estimated to be eligible for the public healthcare program.

So where do things stand now? Well, the NC government has posted a handy Medicaid enrollment dashboard which is tracking the data as once a month; the most recent update was on January 12th:

NC Medicaid Expansion Enrollment as of January 12th, 2024: 314,101

The dashboard has some nifty interactive tools letting. you filter enrollees out by plan, age bracket, gender, ethnicity, urban/rural status and county, along with enrollment trends.

For ten years now, I've had Google Alerts set up to send me links to stories about the Affordable Care Act using various commonly-used phrases like "health exchanges" and such. Normally these bring up the most recent articles about the law, but last night one of them included a surprising link to a Reuters article from...March 2013:

Washington could wind up running more health exchanges - official

March 14, 2013

...The Obama administration has given 17 of the 50 states conditional approval to set up online exchanges where working families would purchase private plans at subsidized rates. The remaining 33 states will all have federally run markets, at least in the early years of the coming reform era.

But Gary Cohen, who spearheads exchange implementation for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, said some of the approved states face hurdles that could require Washington to step in with federal exchanges before open enrollment starts on Oct. 1.

Back in March, after years of failed and stalled attempts to get it passed, the North Carolina legislature finally pushed ACA Medicaid expansion over the line to be signed into law by Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

Today, it became a reality:

Nearly 600,000 North Carolinians Now Have Access to Medicaid Expansion Coverage

A couple of weeks ago, Ariel Hart of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that after over a decade of refusing to consider ACA Medicaid expansion for over 400,000 state residents, Georgia's Republican-controlled legislature may finally be warming up to the idea of embracing full expansion of the program:

For the first time in a decade, high-ranking Georgia GOP legislators on Thursday convened a meeting to hear testimony on full Medicaid expansion to all the state’s poor people.

At the hearing Thursday, the idea was floated over whether to expand Medicaid in exchange for a political deal to roll back regulations that restrict who can open a new health care business. Those regulations are called Certificate of Need, or CON.

For ten years, Georgia has remained one of the states which, frustratingly, has refused to expand Medicaid to all adults earning up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL)...a bit over $20,000/year for a single adult; roughly $41,000/yr for a family of four.

If the state were to join most of the country, an estimated 434,000 Peach State residents would finally be able to enroll in comprehensive, nominal-cost healthcare coverage: Around 252,000 who earn less than 100% of FPL and another ~182,000 who earn between 100 - 138% FPL (the second batch 

After years of pressure, a few years back GOP Governor Brian Kemp kind of, sort of agreed to a partial expansion of Medicaid...with a pretty big caveat:

Shout-out to Jody Young for bringing this Florida Politics article by Christine Sexton my way this evening:

A ‘Nixon goes to China’ moment? Conservative Republican pushes for state Medicaid expansion.

• 'These are not handouts. We’re not throwing money down the drain. We are helping our working class Americans get ahead.'

A conservative Florida Republican doctor who has been an ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis and his handling of COVID-19 says it’s time for the state to expand Medicaid despite the long-running opposition of GOP legislators.

...[Rep. Joel] Rudman said the loss of Medicaid coverage for hundreds of thousands of Floridians this year illustrates the need for change. A spreadsheet compiled by House Democrats shows of the 524,076 Floridians who have lost coverage in the last four months, nearly 50% are under the age of 21.

Mississippi is one of the ten states where ACA Medicaid expansion still hasn't gone through a full decade after it could have.

A few years ago, Medicaid expansion in Mississippi looked like it might actually happen: While GOP Governor Tate Reeves and the Republican supermajority-controlled state legislature opposed it, in May 2021 there was a strong grassroots effort to put a statewide initiative on the ballot to push it through regardless, exactly how it happened in other deep red states like Utah, Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota.

Unfortunately, just a few weeks later, the Mississippi Supreme Court crushed that effort:

Back in March, after years of failed and stalled attempts to get it passed, the North Carolina legislature finally pushed ACA Medicaid expansion over the line to be signed into law by Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

As for when the program would actually go into effect, however...that's been something of a mystery for awhile now. Apparently the wording of the legislation ties it in with it being included in the general state budget, which wouldn't be voted on or approved for months. As a result, no one seemed to be sure when the healthcare expansion program for up to ~600,000 North Carolina residents will actually launch.

Back in July, the Health & Human Services Dept. took an optimistic stance, preparing for the possibility of the program kicking off starting on October 1st of this year. Unfortunately, that was based on the assumption that the GOP-controlled state legislature would actually pass the general budget required for it to happen by September 1st...which didn't happen.

Yesterday I noted that Idaho, which was the one of the first states to start "redetermining" Medicaid/CHIP enrollees the moment the Medicaid Unwinding process began last spring, has at least completed doing so; in the end, over 121,000 - 145,000 Idahoans got the boot, of which somewhere between 51,000 - 106,000 may still actually be eligible for Medicaid/CHIP coverage due to having their coverage terminated for purely procedural reasons.

Today, there's a consolation prize of sorts; via Your Health idaho:

Special Enrollment Period for the Loss of Medicaid Extended

Idahoans who have lost Medicaid coverage have until Nov 30, 2023, to enroll in health insurance through Your Health Idaho

via Dorothy Mills-Gregg of Inside Health Policy:

While most states are reaching the height of their post-pandemic Medicaid renewals, Idaho is returning to nearly normal redeterminations, closing out the bulk of its pandemic eligibility unwinding after removing more than 121,000 Medicaid and CHIP beneficiaries the state deemed most likely ineligible from the programs in six months.

Hmmm...IHP's estimate is lower than that of KFF's daily tracker, which puts Idaho's total disenrollment number at 145,000 as of today.

Idaho’s Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program enrollment grew by roughly 150,000 people during the pandemic’s continuous coverage requirement, maxing out at about 450,000 beneficiaries. An estimated 42% of the beneficiaries who were disenrolled lost coverage due to procedural or paperwork issues.