COVID19

COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

As always:

The partisan ratio of case rates are now only running 2.0x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher in late October and from 2.4x higher just a week ago:

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
    • (data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet)
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
  • For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
    • For Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database
      • NOTE: There's several counties in Virginia where I'm using the official state health department dashboard instead this week specifically due to some weirdness in the COVID Act Now data. If these issues continue I may have to switch to the state dashboard for all counties for VA going forward, which would be a royal pain given the inability to export every county at once.
COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
    • (data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet)
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

As always:

The partisan ratio of case rates are now running 2.4x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher in late October:

COVID

Instead of looking at the cumulative county-level COVID death rates by 2020 partisan lean since the Delta Variant wave hit the United States in June, the graphs below look at how that has played out for each individual month since then.

Again, the COVID death data comes from Johns Hopkins University for 47 states + DC; the data for Nebraska and Utah comes from the New York Times COVID tracker github; and for Florida, it comes from the White House COVID-19 Team Community Profile Report.

The data does not include the U.S. territories (since they don't vote in the November Presidential election), and it's also missing around 4% of total COVID deaths across the 50 states + DC due to their county of residence being unknown.

With that in mind, here's what the Delta wave has looked like in June, July, August, September, October, November and the first 2 weeks of December 2021:

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine). Data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet.
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.59x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher seven weeks ago:

NPR Logo

On Monday, I noted that after NPR reporters NPR reporters Geoff Brumfiel and Daniel Wood updated their report on the partisan divide regarding COVID-19 vaccination and death rates to include my consultation regarding their analysis and methodology, I learned that they had disregarded my warning about using Johns Hopkins University data for Florida because JHU's data for Florida specifically was still reflecting data as of June 3rd:

As I had noted back in September:

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
COVID

Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).

The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.67x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher six weeks ago:

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