Charles Gaba's blog

OK, this was actually sent out on January 29th, but since it sounds like CMS won't be revealing the final OE3 tally until Thursday or Friday, this will have to tide everyone over:

By the Numbers: Open Enrollment

Since Open Enrollment for the Health Insurance Marketplace began on November 1, about 11.6 million people have signed up for or renewed a health plan (2.7 million through State-based Marketplaces through December 26 and over 8.9 million through HealthCare.gov or CuidadodeSalud.gov through January 23) that meets their needs and fits their budget.

Note: Obviously these numbers are a bit out of date; I've confirmed 11.86 million nationally, or around 260,000 more via the state-based exchanges than CMS has officially reported so far.

...This fact sheet provides a point-in-time estimate as of January 28, except where noted, of the many numbers behind the 2016 Open Enrollment period.

The Washington State ACA exchange has been very good about providing enrollment updates over the final couple of weeks of open enrollment, although the numbers have been included as part of general press releases rather than detailed demographic breakdowns.

They hit 190,000 as of January 29th, and it looks like they managed to rack up over 10,000 more in just the final two days, which is pretty impressive.

OLYMPIA, Wash. — The Washington Health Benefit Exchange today announced that more than 200,000 Washingtonians selected a Qualified Health Plan through Washington Healthplanfinder by the close of open enrollment on Jan. 31. The number of plans selected is nearly 25 percent higher than those selected in open enrollment last year, with approximately 39,000 more customers signed up for coverage this year than in 2015.

UPDATE 2/05/16: Unfortunately, I got swamped this week with the actual enrollment wrap-up stuff and never got a chance to write up the Part II promised at the end of this. I might have to re-think how I do this. I'll leave this post online, but might ot be referencing back to it for awhile longer than I expected. Sorry about that.

A couple of weeks ago, I made a YUUUGE mistake: I dipped my toe into the Hillary/Bernie/Single Payer fuss. Actually, the mistake wasn't so much my post, but cross-posting it over at Daily Kos, where it caused a bit of a fuss, which in turn led to my getting embroiled in the so-called "Bernie Bros Brouhaha" (Bro-Ha-Ha?), and so on.

Christ, it even turned into a bit of an M.C. Escher drawing, with Glenn Greenwald using the personal attacks on me by Bernie supporters to defend Bernie supporters, while Parker Molloy went from (indirectly) defending me (and other victims of "Bernie Bro" attacks) to actually accusing me of "Bernie Bro" behavior myself...because I made the mistake of responding to her Medium story via Twitter before I had actually read the entire story. (Note: I immediately realized my error and apologized, but she has yet to respond).

Better yet: This, in turn, led to another hostile encounter with another extreme Bernie supporter...a female one in this case, who was off her rocker, which in turn kind of proved Molloy's point about "Bro" not neccessarily having to be male. Additional irony: In both cases, I had actually been attempting to defend, or at least smooth over, the "Bernie Bro" insanity. And so it goes.

In any event, I had made a couple of other mistakes in my original post: While the title of the piece mentioned "siding with Hillary on healthcare", the post itself was really more about a) the problems I have with Bernie's plan and b) my own idea about how to eventually get to a single payer system...not what Hillary's plans actually are. In response, the following day I posted another piece which looked into what Hillary Clinton's ideas on healthcare policy actually are. On the one hand, they're far more detailed than Bernie's, which is a very good thing. On the other hand, even if every one of them were to be fully implemented, they'd significantly improve the current system but no, they still wouldn't bring about either single payer or universal coverage by themselves.

The last Colorado update, which ran through January 15th, had their numbers at 139,579 private policies (QHPs), 23,017 standalone dental plans, 45,100 in Medicaid and 2,771 in the SCHIP program.

I've just learned that Colorado's final tally as of the January 31st deadline stands at 153,583 QHPs, 25,604 dental, 54,447 Medicaid and 3,549 SCHIP, which means they added just over 14,000 in the final 16 days.

Of the estimated 12-13 million people who, in the end, appear to have enrolled in ACA exchange policies for this year, around 10-11 million of them are receiving federal tax credits, either as a monthly subsidy towards their premiums or as a "lump sum" tax rebate the following spring.

Either way, exchange enrollees will have to include two important new forms when filing their federal income taxes this year:

UPDATE 2/04/16: OK, I've confirmed that Covered California will be releasing their numbers at around 1pm 4pm this afternoon (whoops...forgot about the time zone difference), while HHS will be holding a call at around 3pm to discuss the Open Enrollment period in general at around 3pm. I don't know if they'll give out just the HealthCare.Gov numbers (38 states) or the national total today, but even if it's HC.gov only, with CoveredCA and the 5 states which have already released their numbers (see below), that'll still be 44 states accounted for representing over 90% of the national total (plus most of the enrollment in the remaining 6 states +DC is already booked as well). Still, I'm pretty sure they'll give the grand total regardless. Stay tuned...

According to Dan Diamond of Politico, the total number won't be released by HHS until Thursday or Friday.

MNsure, the Minnesota ACA exchange, is the first one to report their final, official 2016 Open Enrollment numbers, and they have much to be proud of:

85,390 Minnesotans Enroll in Private Coverage Through MNsure During the 2016 Open Enrollment Period

Enrollment goal exceeded, Minnesota leads the nation in new enrollees

February 01, 2016

ST. PAUL, Minn.—Today, MNsure announced 85,390 Minnesotans enrolled private health insurance coverage through the state exchange during the 2016 open enrollment period, November 1, 2015, through January 31, 2016. MNsure's goal was to enroll 83,000 in private coverage.

In addition, 33,333 Minnesotans newly enrolled in MinnesotaCare and 73,173 newly enrolled in Medical Assistance. MNsure also enrolled 7,144 Minnesotans in a dental-only plan. These numbers are preliminary and are not yet final.

The official Twitter account for the Health & Human Services Dept. just posted the following (emphasis mine):

Open Enrollment by the numbers: 4.46 Billion+ #Twitter impressions garnered by the #GetCovered social media campaign. Thank you.

— HHS.gov (@HHSGov) February 1, 2016

For a split second there I was almost needed my Obamacare-compliant healthcare policy to pay for the cardiovascular surgery I was about to require.

When @ChrisChristie & @JohnKasich were expanding Medicaid, I fought alongside the FL House to prevent expansion.https://t.co/S2cNJNQFfA

— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) January 31, 2016

*(mostly)

Well, it's around 7pm EST on Sunday, 1/31/16. As of this writing, HealthCare.Gov is loading quickly, as are all 13 of the state-based exchange websites. Aside from a "high call volume" message at Covered California and "extended call center hour" messages from CoveredCA and various other SBMs, I'm not seeing any evidence of website server load strain, etc.

In fact, the only site I know of to experience a significant technical snafu this weekend is the Washington Healthplanfinder, which was offline for most of yesterday (but has been up and running all day today).

In fact, the only "overtime/extension period" announcements so far are from the Maryland Health Connection and Covered California, which each announced official "In Line By Midnight" extensions for those who start their enrollment process by midnight tonight.

In short, this seems to indicate that everything is operating pretty smoothly. As for the actual volume, I've already concluded that the "final surge" will likely be decent but fairly muted compared to the first two years of Open Enrollment.

UPDATE 9:40pm: Ut-oh...this can't be good...

This is only appearing on the home page of the Massachusetts exchange website, but the wording of it suggests that it applies to all of the state-based exchanges.

Yeeks. Don't be surprised if there's a few more #ACAOvertime announcements after all....

UPDATE 10:50pm: Hmmm...it's been over an hour and no other state exchange websites are reporting any problems, nor have I seen any Tweets or Facebook posts which indicate any outages.

All websites including HC.gov are still loading smoothly.


UPDATE MIDNIGHT: Welp, that's that, at least for the Atlantic and Eastern Time Zones. *Central, Mountain West and Pacific still have a bit to go, and of course Alaska and Hawaii are 5 hours behind, but I've gotta get some sleep myself...

I assume there'll be some sort of rough tally announcement tomorrow, but all eyes will be on the Iowa Caucuses anyway, so there you go.


Once again, here's my final projection for OE3's QHP Selection Total; I assume the actual total will be announced tomorrow (at least to the nearest half million or so, anyway):

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