South Carolina

Again, those extra 11 days seem to be a bit more significant than you'd think; SC was at about 115K according to the HHS report, so they've added another 3,500 or so since 4/19:

Health and Human Services officials said 118,324 state residents — or about 80 percent of the total 146,683 — selected a private health insurance plan. They said 28,359 were eligible for Medicaid.

Simple and to the point:

The S.C. Department of Insurance reported Friday that 114,789 individuals selected a plan on the federal exchange through April 15 - up from an 97,000 estimate earlier this month.

Ah, at last...the Federal exchange state data is starting to trickle in now...

Nearly 100,000 South Carolinians enrolled in a health insurance policy on HealthCare.govbetween Oct. 1 and March 31, the director of the state's insurance department said Monday.

But only some of those 97,387 individuals - about 57 percent - have paid their first month's premium, Director Ray Farmer said.

The number of people actually enrolled may go up or down through May 1 - the deadline by which that first payment must be made.

Data released Monday by the S.C. Department of Insurance shows a sharp increase in Obamacare enrollment in South Carolina during the second half of March. Approximately 30,000 people in this state signed up for a plan during the last two weeks of open enrollment.

It's nice to be able to plug in SC's data, but the "How many have PAID???" thing is more amusing. 31% of the enrollees don't have their policy start until May 1st, so it's only 69% who you would even expect to have paid yet. Presumably the bulk of the 11% in between will pay over the next few weeks, and the 31% May-starts will start paying in increasing numbers as well.

OK, this isn't exactly a major update but it's nice to get the occasional nugget from a Federal Exchange state (especially a deep red one):

@AntonJGunn can you confirm # of #ACA enrollments for South Carolina at 76K? Saw post on Facebook yesterday. Any idea exchange vs. Medicaid

— Burt Insurance Group (@BurtInsGrp) March 29, 2014

"@AntonJGunn: @BurtInsGrp all marketplace enrollments." @charles_gaba

— Burt Insurance Group (@BurtInsGrp) March 29, 2014

This doesn't really make much difference to the projection table, but I'm adding it anyway.

UPDATE: On the down side, I was off by 4% this time around.

On the up side, I UNDERESTIMATED:

Actual Feb. enrollments: 942,833, for a total of 4,242,325 thru 3/01/14.

Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:

  • As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
  • If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
  • From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
  • Don't be surprised if Peter Lee of CoveredCA decides to steal some thunder by announcing that California has enrolled 1,000,000 QHPs all by itself either today or tomorrow. However, that would include the past 10 days, while the HHS number will only run thru 3/01.
  • If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.
  • I've been dead-on target 6 times in a row without hyping up my projections beforehand. This time I am hyping myself up beforehand, so I'll probably be way off...but as long as I've UNDERestimated the tally, I'll be perfectly fine with that...
  • The report will be released in about 5 minutes, but my kid gets home from school in about 10, so it'll be a good 20 minutes before I can really post anything. Feel free to follow Sarah Kliff of Vox in the meantime!

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